Are managed retreat programs successful and just? A global mapping of success typologies,justice dimensions,and trade-offs     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

As managed retreat programs expand across the globe, there is an urgent need to assess whether these programs are reducing exposure to climatic hazards, enhancing adaptive capacity, and improving the living conditions of communities in a just and equitable manner or are they exacerbating existing risks and vulnerabilities? Strictly speaking, are retreat programs successful? Using an expansive intersectional justice approach to examine 138 post-resettlement case studies published between 2000 and 2021 across the Global North and South, we identified five typologies of success – techno-managerial, eco-restorative, compensatory, reformative, and transformative – and their trade-offs and synergies. Our meta-analysis incorporated a variety of metrics: relocation types, funding, decision making, socio-economic class, land use change, livelihood options, and social impacts. We found 26% of cases failed, 43% were successful, and 30% are on-going and therefore success was undetermined. The techno-managerial cases, while successful in the limited terms of relocating residents, paid little attention to equity and justice. The eco-restorative and compensatory cases reduced hazard exposure but revealed the synergies and tensions associated with social, ecological, and intergenerational justice. The reformative and transformative cases improved community wellbeing, rootedness, and access to livelihoods while incorporating diverse justice concerns to different degrees. By intersecting these typologies with multiple dimensions of justice, this study advances a novel planning and analytical tool for assessing the potential success or failure of current and future retreat programs.  相似文献   

Differential disadvantages in the distribution of federal aid across three decades of voluntary buyouts in the United States     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Voluntary home buyout programs have gained increasing popularity as a natural hazard mitigation tool over the past couple decades. However, a strong emphasis on the monetary value of disaster mitigation leaves open the possibility of inequity in distribution of the benefits of buyouts that may exacerbate social justice issues under conditions of increasing disaster damages due to climate change. Using a complete dataset of U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funded buyout properties we describe the demographic makeup of neighborhoods and counties that have participated in FEMA buyout programs since the 1980s and evaluate differential disadvantages in the chances of receiving a buyout and the amount of money received by buyout participants across characteristics associated with social vulnerability. We find that urban counties with greater resources are more likely to receive funds to administer a buyout program, and that within these counties, minority homeowners are less likely to receive federal aid dollars. In addition, we identify a trend of increasing disparity specifically for Black populations. Our findings suggest that intended objectivity in how voluntary buyout dollars are distributed has led to unintentional inequities at multiple scales that may become more pronounced without changes to existing policy and highlight the growing need for social equity consideration in strategic retreat planning.  相似文献   

The rates and spatial patterns of annual riverbank erosion revealed through terrestrial laser‐scanner surveys of the South River,Virginia     

Michael A. O'Neal  James E. Pizzuto 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(5):695-701

Between a.d. 2006 and 2008, we completed annual surveys of two mercury‐contaminated eroding banks, one forested and the other grass covered, along the gravel‐bed, bedrock South River in Virginia. Gridded digital terrain models with a resolution of 0·05 m were created from bank topography data collected using a terrestrial laser scanner. Model comparisons indicate that the forested bank retreated nearly 1 m around two leaning trees, while elsewhere the extent of bank retreat was negligible. On the grassy bank, retreat was controlled by the creation of small overhanging clumps of turf at the top of the bank, their occasional failure, and the ultimate removal of failed debris from the bank toe. Partial autocorrelation analysis of vertically integrated bank retreat demonstrates that bank profile erosion is virtually uncorrelated at horizontal distances greater than about 1 m on both banks, a length scale of approximately half the bank height. This extensive streamwise variability suggests that widely spaced profile data cannot adequately represent bank erosion at these sites. Additional analysis of our comprehensive spatial data also indicates that traditional bank profile surveys with any spacing greater than 1 m would result in measurement errors exceeding 10%, an important conclusion for assessing annual rates of mercury loading into the South River from bank erosion. Our results suggest that three‐dimensional gridded bare‐earth models of bank topography may be required to accurately measure annual bank retreat in similar river systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

近40年天山冰川变化的遥感监测   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李宝林  张一驰  周成虎 《地理学报(英文版)》2004,14(3):296-302

Both marginal fluctuation and areal change were used to detect the accurate dynamics of glacier change in the study area using Landsat MSS, ETM, SPOT HRV and topographic maps based on GIS. From 1963 to 1977, four of eight glaciers advanced, two of them retreated and another two kept stable, the glacier advanced generally. From 1977 to 1986, four of eight glaciers retreated and the others kept stable, but the retreated glaciers were those which advanced from 1963 to 1977. From 1986 to 2000, seven of eight glaciers retreated and only one glacier kept stable, the retreating velocity was 10-15 m/a. Glacier recession in this period became very fast and universal. From 1963 to 2000, the area of glaciers decreased from 5479.0 ha to 4795.4 ha, up to 12.5%. It is alarming that most of glacier retreats happened from 1986 to 2000. This was very consistent with change process of summer mean temperature in this region and global warming beginning in the 1980s.  相似文献   

巴里坤盆地现代气候波动及近250年来的冷暖变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

罗格平  袁玉江 《冰川冻土》1991,(1)

通过单相关普查找出巴里坤山区年表7的生长限制因子为上年6—7月均温,从而得到了巴里坤近250a来冷暖变化的替代序列。该序列的低通滤波曲线,揭示了近250a来的冷暖变化事实。方差分析指出,巴里坤冷暖变化的主要周期为126a。温度曲线与天山冰川进退时期相吻合。  相似文献   

ONSET AND RETREAT DATES OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE MONSOON INTENSITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE WARMING     

李栋梁  蒋元春  张莉萍  王慧  李潇 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(3):362-373

Global gridded daily mean data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis(1948-2012) are used to obtain the onset date,retreat date and duration time series of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) for the past 65 years.The summer monsoon onset(retreat) date is defined as the time when the mean zonal wind at 850 hPa shifts steadily from easterly(westerly) to westerly(easterly) and the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature at the same level remains steady at greater than 335 K(less than 335 K) in the South China Sea area[110-120°E(10-20°N)].The clockwise vortex of the equatorial Indian Ocean region,together with the cross-equatorial flow and the subtropical high,plays a decisive role in the burst of the SCSSM.The onset date of the SCSSM is closely related to its intensity.With late(early) onset of the summer monsoon,its intensity is relatively strong(weak),and the zonal wind undergoes an early(late) abrupt change in the upper troposphere.Climate warming significantly affects the onset and retreat dates of the SCSSM and its intensity.With climate warming,the number of early-onset(-retreat) years of the SCSSM is clearly greater(less),and the SCSSM is clearly weakened.  相似文献   

Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) between 1956 and 1997 / Estimation par photogrammétrie de la récession glaciaire sur le Volcan Cotopaxi (Equateur) entre 1956 et 1997     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)

Abstract

Aerial photographs of the Cotopaxi Volcano ice cap dating from 1956 to 1997 were used to quantify the evolution of the surface area. Results were obtained using precise stereoscopic methods that give the most accurate information. In addition four specific glacier tongues were investigated in detail to measure the ice mass lost between 1976 and 1997. Surprisingly, the bedrock morphology is shown to be very irregular and this explains a large extent of the variability found in the ice losses. The results show that glaciers stagnated from 1956 to 1976 and lost about 30% of their surface area between 1976 and 1997. Slope exposure did not seem to have any significant effect since all the glaciers of the volcano retreated in the same proportion. In accordance with specific measurements performed on the nearby Antizana 15 Glacier, it is suggested that the strong recession observed after 1976 was associated with increasing melting conditions which have occurred repeatedly during the intense/long-duration warm ENSO phases.  相似文献   

丹霞崖壁的形成机制初探——以丹霞山为例     

李燕文  李宏卫  程亮开  涂华  赖忠平 《地质论评》2023,69(Z1):113-116

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Timing and pace of ice-sheet withdrawal across the marine–terrestrial transition west of Ireland during the last glaciation     

Colm Ó Cofaigh  S. Louise Callard  David H. Roberts  Richard C. Chiverrell  C. K. Ballantyne  David J. A. Evans  Margot Saher  Katrien J. J. Van Landeghem  Rachel Smedley  Sara Benetti  Matthew Burke  Chris D. Clark  Geoff A. T. Duller  Derek Fabel  Stephen J. Livingstone  Stephen Mccarron  Alicia Medialdea  Steven G. Moreton  Fabio Sacchetti 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):805-832

Understanding the pace and drivers of marine-based ice-sheet retreat relies upon the integration of numerical ice-sheet models with observations from contemporary polar ice sheets and well-constrained palaeo-glaciological reconstructions. This paper provides a reconstruction of the retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) from the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland during and following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It uses marine-geophysical data and sediment cores dated by radiocarbon, combined with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and optically stimulated luminescence dating of onshore ice-marginal landforms, to reconstruct the timing and rate of ice-sheet retreat from the continental shelf and across the adjoining coastline of Ireland, thus including the switch from a marine- to a terrestrially-based ice-sheet margin. Seafloor bathymetric data in the form of moraines and grounding-zone wedges on the continental shelf record an extensive ice sheet west of Ireland during the LGM which advanced to the outer shelf. This interpretation is supported by the presence of dated subglacial tills and overridden glacimarine sediments from across the Porcupine Bank, a westwards extension of the Irish continental shelf. The ice sheet was grounded on the outer shelf at ~26.8 ka cal bp with initial retreat underway by 25.9 ka cal bp. Retreat was not a continuous process but was punctuated by marginal oscillations until ~24.3 ka cal bp. The ice sheet thereafter retreated to the mid-shelf where it formed a large grounding-zone complex at ~23.7 ka cal bp. This retreat occurred in a glacimarine environment. The Aran Islands on the inner continental shelf were ice-free by ~19.5 ka bp and the ice sheet had become largely terrestrially based by 17.3 ka bp. This suggests that the Aran Islands acted to stabilize and slow overall ice-sheet retreat once the BIIS margin had reached the inner shelf. Our results constrain the timing of initial retreat of the BIIS from the outer shelf west of Ireland to the period of minimum global eustatic sea level. Initial retreat was driven, at least in part, by glacio-isostatically induced, high relative sea level. Net rates of ice-sheet retreat across the shelf were slow (62–19 m a⁻¹) and reduced (8 m a⁻¹) as the ice sheet vacated the inner shelf and moved onshore. A picture therefore emerges of an extensive BIIS on the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland, in which early, oscillatory retreat was followed by slow episodic retreat which decelerated further as the ice margin became terrestrially based. More broadly, this demonstrates the importance of localized controls, in particular bed topography, on modulating the retreat of marine-based sectors of ice sheets.  相似文献   

A GIS-BASED GLACIER INVENTORY FOR THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA AND THE SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS——A FIRST CASE STUDY ON KING GEORGE ISLAND   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Matthias Braun  F.Rau  Jefferson Cardia Si“非汉字字符”mes 《地球空间信息科学学报》2001,4(2)

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