应用RMi法估算岩体变形模量     

王亮清  胡静  章广成 《水文地质工程地质》2003,(Z1)

RMR法与Q法是国内外八、九十年代岩体质量和参数估算的常用方法,然而RMR法和Q法对质量较差的岩体不太实用,而RMi法是一种既适用于软岩又适用于硬岩的岩体质量评价和参数估算方法。本文在介绍RMi法基本原理的基础上,对贵州省鱼简河水库坝基岩体变形模量进行确定。  相似文献   

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns   总被引：6，自引：5，他引：6  

Ken Granger 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):165-185

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.  相似文献   

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000     

Linda J. Anderson-Berry 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):209-232

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.  相似文献   

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Adnan A. Basma  Samer A. Barakat  Maher T. Omar 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2003,21(3):225-242

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

兰州市人体舒适度预报系统开发研制   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

许东蓓  王小勇  黄玉霞  杨民  何金梅 《干旱气象》2003,21(1):20-23

利用兰州市197l-2000年气象资料，统计分析各气象要素的变化规律，并探讨其对人体舒适度的影响。在国内外人体实验和有关研究方法基础上，结合本地特殊的气候状况，建立了与人体舒适度有关的8个指数的计算方法和相应的预报等级，并在预报实践中进行了效果检验和参数订正，可以满足兰州市气象指数预报业务的需要。  相似文献   

浅析啤酒销售与气象要素的关系及预测     

王宝鉴  黄玉霞  许东蓓  解冰莉  谢卫琪 《干旱气象》2003,21(2):25-27

利用1997年1月-2002年6月兰州市某大型啤酒企业啤酒销售资料与同期兰州市气象要素资料，分析气象要素对啤酒销售的影响。分析结果表明，温度是影响啤酒销售量最显著的气象因子。两者具有很好的相关性。采用最小二乘法建立啤酒销售量的月及逐日预报方程。并提出啤酒指数的概念。  相似文献   

基于资源卫星图像对NDVI进行大气修正的一种简单方法   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

赵巧华  何金海 《南京气象学院学报》2003,26(2):236-242

在遥感应用领域，植被指数己被广泛用来定性和定量表征植被覆盖度及其生长状况。由于大气变化的影响，使植被指数未能真实反映地表植被的真实分布状况，造成其应用的局限性。提出了一种简易方法，仅通过中巴资源卫星(CBERS：China Brazil Environment Resoure Satellite)图像的第3、第4波段中的水体，推算卫星接收到的大气程辐射，消除了大气对归一化植被指数(NDVI：Normalized Differece Vege—tation Index)的影响，减小植被指数所受的大气影响。应用结果表明，该方法能使植被指数较好地反映植被的生长及分布状况。  相似文献   

广西异常暴雨天气事件之异常指数初探   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

高安宁  陈业国  吴兴国 《气象》2003,29(1):46-48

对广西异常暴雨天气事件之“异常指数”的设置进行了初步探讨，提出暴雨天气事件中过程日最大暴雨范围，过程持续时间，过程强降雨，特强降雨发生范围等四项异常分指数，然后统计同一过程分指数之和，得总指数，在此基础上分别选出了4－10月各月广西异常暴雨天气事件。  相似文献   

气象卫星遥感预警福建省森林火灾   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

郑海青张春桂  陈家金王加义 《气象科技》2003,31(3):190-192,F003,173

应用NOAA卫星遥感资料，研究森林防火期内森林植被的干燥指数的变化，结合分析相应的森林火灾的资料，做出福建省森林火险等级空间分布，应用福建省地理信息系统，根据高火险等级的地理位置，预警该地可能发生森林火灾。  相似文献   

气象卫星观测资料的分析在城市区域气象环境研究中的应用   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

周志恩  蒋维楣  胡非  奚文 《气象科学》2003,23(3):292-299

目前 ,我国气象部门相当普遍地拥有气象卫星观测资料 ,但是 ,这些资料如何在城市气象服务以及为城市建设规划等方面的决策研究中发挥作用 ,急待进一步研究并开展工作。本文试图通过合理的反演处理 ,给出卫星观测对地面温度的测量结果 ,由此可比较细致地分析了解地面热状况及其与土地利用类型 ,地面覆盖性质等的关系。本文利用有限的 NOAA- AVHRR气象卫星遥感资料 ,采用修正的 Ulivieri分裂窗方法反演出同期的地表温度场 ,通过对北京地区的卫星观测资料进行算例分析 ,揭示出一个 2 0 0 km× 2 0 0 km范围内的地面温度分布特征。反演结果可以明显地揭示出城市热岛现象的变化规律 ,并且能较为清楚地反映出相对的高温区和低温区  相似文献