中长期地震预测方案综合信度评价的层次分析法   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4  

王晓青  高孟潭 《中国地震》1995,11(3):257-265

由于存在各种复杂的不确定因素的影响，正确合理地评价地震观测结果的可信度，具有一定的难度。本文首先引入具有广泛应用途的层次分析法，并以华北北部为例，结合Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ专家咨询结果，给出了反映各个预测方案结果的可信度及具有满意一致性的相对重要性权系数。其结果可作为综合各种预测方案，确定该地区中长期地震危险区的参考依据。  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence     

Herak  Marijan  Herak  Davorka  Markušić  Snježana  Ivančić  Ines 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2001,45(3):251-266

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.  相似文献   

Confidence intervals for earthquake source parameters   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

G. A. Prieto  D. J. Thomson  F. L. Vernon  P. M. Shearer  R. L. Parker 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,168(3):1227-1234

  相似文献   

一种基于GIS的矿产资源潜力评价的自动制图模型     

陈永良  刘大有 《地质论评》2002,48(3):324-329

在基于GIS技术的矿产资源评价工作中,矿产资源潜力评价的自动制图模型通常用来统计综合多源地学信息以便自动圈定成矿远景靶区。在本文中,笔者以人工智能研究领域中的一种不确定推理模型——确定性理论为基础,提出了一种新的矿产资源潜力评价的自动制图模型——合成有矿可信度模型。该模型可以根据研究区各种成矿有利和不利证据的空间分布图,统计生成对应于每一种证据的有矿可信度栅格图,然后,按照特定的有矿可信度合成规则,将所有的有矿可信度栅格图统计综合生成合成有矿可信度栅格图。以该图为依据,可以把研究区内合成有矿可信度相对较高的成矿远景区圈定出来。也可以生成研究区合成有矿可信度等值线图。应用该模型预测了新疆北部多拉纳萨依—阿舍勒地区的多金属成矿远景,并将预测结果与证据加权模型预测结果进行了比较,两种模型的预测结果基本相似,证明了该模型的有效性和实用性。  相似文献   

Estimation of quantiles and confidence intervals for the log-Gumbel distribution     

J. -H. Heo  J. D. Salas 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1996,10(3):187-207

The log-Gumbel distribution is one of the extreme value distributions which has been widely used in flood frequency analysis. This distribution has been examined in this paper regarding quantile estimation and confidence intervals of quantiles. Specific estimation algorithms based on the methods of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM) and maximum likelihood (ML) are presented. The applicability of the estimation procedures and comparison among the methods have been illustrated based on an application example considering the flood data of the St. Mary's River.  相似文献   

相对点位中误差及其在工程测量中的作用     

梁永成  曲建光 《测绘工程》1995,(4)

阐述相对点位中误差的概念及其在工程测量中的作用,介绍相对点位中误差及相对误差椭园计算方法,以示例说明点位中误差和相对点位中误差的意义和作用。  相似文献   

岩石有限应变测量的莫尔圆图解网法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

李云安 《地质科技情报》1993,12(1):53-58

通常进行的应变测量需经过繁杂的数学计算或莫尔圆作图才能获得应变结果。本文介绍了笔者新设计的莫尔圆图解网及其使用方法。它可以快速准确地作出莫尔圆,进而求得应变结果,也可用于求解应力莫尔圆问题。  相似文献   

木星土星边缘的椭圆拟合     

彭青玉 《天文研究与技术》2003,(4):43-48

将CCD观测的木星或土星光环图像二值化,再用"四邻点模板"检测获得二值图像的边缘,最后用椭圆方程迭代拟合边缘,可以获得行星几何中心的位置。这被证明是一种高精度的位置测量方法[1,2]。本文给出了用椭圆拟合检测边缘的全部公式及有关说明。  相似文献   

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jan Šílený  Alexander Milev 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(8):1495-1513

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.  相似文献   

稻谷安全种植土壤重金属限值的基于置信区间评价法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘永生  李瑞敏 《地质通报》2006,25(5):616-620

由于现有国家土壤环境质量标准在应用于浙江土壤环境质量评价的过程中过于严格,在土壤环境质量评价过程中Ⅰ类土壤过少并与实际情况不符.本文以Cd元素为例提出基于土壤-籽实生态安全响应关系模型的土地生态安全性置信区间评价法,并应用于浙江省上虞市土地生态安全评价标准值的确定.通过描述具体的计算过程得出Cd的安全界限值、基本安全界限值和危险界限值分别为324μg/kg、563μg/kg和802μg/kg.得出的3个界限值比较符合浙江省上虞市的实际情况.  相似文献