The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Jane Kabubo-Mariara  Fredrick K. Karanja 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,57(3-4):319-330

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.  相似文献   

Estimation of seasonal crop water consumption in a vineyard using Bowen ratio‐energy balance method     

B. Z. Zhang  S. Z. Kang  L. Zhang  T. S. Du  S. E Li  X. Y. Yang 《水文研究》2007,21(26):3635-3641

Information about seasonal crop water consumption is useful to develop the appropriate irrigation scheme. Measurements of energy balance components using the Bowen ratio method were made for a complete growing season at a vineyard in the arid region of northwest China. Vine in the experiment was furrow‐irrigated using a trellis system. The measured evapotranspiration was compared with estimates using the soil water balance method. It is shown that the Bowen ratio method provided accurate estimates of evapotranspiration from the vineyard and this requires that the Bowen ratio system is appropriately installed. The energy balance components showed typical diurnal pattern with peaks that occurred around the midday, except for the ground heat flux which delayed its peak by 2–3 h. The sensible heat flux was greater than the latent heat flux and followed the net radiation closely. The ratio of the latent heat flux to net radiation was low in the early growing season and increased over time. Under the limited irrigation experienced in the vineyard, the latent heat flux was controlled by available soil moisture and the total evapotranspiration in the growing season was 253 mm. The seasonal progression of the crop coefficient is similar to that reported in the literature, with the maximum occurring during the month of September. The crop coefficient can be estimated as a non‐linear function of day of year (DOY) and used to estimate evapotranspiration from vineyards in the region. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Performance of community-based coastal resource management (CBCRM) programs in the Philippines: A meta-analysis     

Ronald J. Maliao  Robert S. Pomeroy  Ralph G. Turingan   《Marine Policy》2009,33(5):818-825

Community-based coastal resource management (CBCRM) is a major conservation and fisheries management strategy in the tropics. In this study, the performance of 16 CBCRM programs in the Philippines was assessed using a meta-analysis of eight indicators that represented the perceptions of local resource users. Overall, the CBCRM programs in the Philippines were perceived to have a significant positive impact. However, the performance of each of the indicators was mixed. Although the CBCRM programs were perceived to be effective in empowering the local fishing communities, their perceived impact on improving the state of the local fisheries resources remained limited. This highlights the importance of incorporating ecological and socio-economic considerations in setting fisheries management regimes.  相似文献   

黄土高原退耕农户生计资本对生计策略的影响——以甘肃会宁县为例     

刘璐璐  李锋瑞 《中国沙漠》2020,40(1):233-244

探索贫困地区退耕农户的生计资本与生计策略关系，对实现精准扶贫、乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。基于甘肃会宁县退耕农户调查数据，构建了具有区域特色的生计资本指标体系，采用熵值法测算生计资本，运用Logistic回归模型探讨了退耕农户生计策略选择问题。结果表明：（1）研究区退耕农户拥有的生计资本中人力资本指数最低，且各生计资本值存在差异；（2）金融资本中的现金收入可以显著增加退耕农户选择非农型生计策略的概率，而自然资本中的平地面积、物质资本中的耐用消费品价值和金融资本中的资金获得渠道会显著降低退耕农户选择非农型生计策略的概率；（3）对于不同退耕程度的农户，现金收入依旧可以显著增加选择非农型生计策略的概率，而抑制两类农户选择非农型生计策略的生计资本指标则存在差异。基于此，提出改善退耕农户的金融资本的多项措施，进而提高农户的非农生计意愿，更好地解决贫困问题。  相似文献   

西北贫困地区乡村类型识别与振兴途径研究   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：11  

文琦  郑殿元 《地理研究》2019,38(3):509-521

乡村振兴战略是新时期我国推进城乡融合发展的重要举措。贫困地区既是脱贫攻坚的主战场,又是乡村振兴的重点区域。如何科学识别村落类型,分类推进典型区域乡村振兴发展,对于破解农村发展不平衡不充分问题具有重要的现实意义。本文解析了乡村地域系统发展理论,阐释了城乡融合发展理论,剖析了村域空间结构格局演变和城乡要素结构功能优化重组;构建了西北干旱贫困地区乡村振兴村落类型识别体系,从乡村主体、产业发展、人居环境、资源禀赋4个子系统进行逐级分类判断,识别乡村主导类型,结合专家征询分析与村落特征,将乡村振兴村落类型识别为集聚提升类、三产融合类、城郊融合类、特色保护类、搬迁撤并类,结合不同乡村振兴模式提出了相应地发展路径,以期为乡村振兴提供理论依据与决策参考。  相似文献   

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

赵彦茜  肖登攀  柏会子  陶福禄 《地理科学进展》2019,38(2):224-235

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。  相似文献   

Sensitivity of penman-monteith reference crop evapotranspiration in Tao’er River Basin of northeastern China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Liqiao Liang  Lijuan Li  Li Zhang  Jiuyi Li  Bin Li 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2008,18(4):340-347

A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration （ET0） to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao＇er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that： 1） Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air temperature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao＇er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air temperature. 2） Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3） Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4） Among all sensitivity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.  相似文献   

2004年春季东海赤潮高发区COD分布及其与赤潮关系的初步研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王颢  石晓勇  张传松  王修林 《海洋科学》2008,32(12):82-86

2004年4～5月初在东海赤潮高发区暴发的特大规模原甲藻赤潮前期和暴发初期对该海域进行的现场调查，并对该海域COD的分布特征进行了探讨。结果表明，赤潮暴发前COD为0．295-1.836mg／L，主要受陆源输入影响。根据其在局部海区底层出现的异常升高结合其他参数分析可对特定海区潜在赤潮暴发的可能性进行评估。赤潮暴发时COD为0．36～3．14mg／L，表层和中层与叶绿素存在显著正相关关系，表明其主要受生物影响。富营养化指数表明赤潮暴发前近一半海域已经处于富营养化状态，但COD对富营养化的贡献不如营养盐重要。  相似文献   

Ecological quality of some Tunisian coast and lagoon locations,by using benthic community parameters and biotic indices     

Ahmed Afli  Rakia AyariSana Zaabi 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

Three Tunisian coastal and lagoon sites, variously affected by human activities, and differing according to their degree of communication with the sea, were studied. The total organic matter content and the granulometry of the sediment were measured and the macro-invertebrates were sampled and identified. Currently due to the lack of an efficient single biotic index for quality assessment, indications from these measurements can contribute to enrich our knowledge of the southern Mediterranean areas. Several biotic indices (AMBI, BENTIX, BOPA, BOPA modified, I2EC, ITI), most of which have been used in the context of the European Water Framework Directive, and some other structural parameters were used. The results show that the Bizerte lagoon, an almost closed area characterized mainly by extreme salinity/temperature and with a strong fluctuation of nutrients, appears biologically more impoverished. The Dkhila coast, which is more open to the sea, however, appears to be less dominated by the principal species. Biotic indices showed that the most polluted areas included the region exposed to urban inputs of Bizerte, the mouth of Hamdoun wadi and the harbour areas. In these locations, benthic macrofauna is dominated by opportunistic species like Capitella capitata, Scolelepis fuliginosa, Prionospio malmgreni, Polydora sp., Cirratulus cirratus and Cirriformia tentaculata. Other stations, which are farther from the sources of disturbance such as the mouths of the principal Wadis, the south of the Bizerte ship canal and the south of the Tunis bay, appear to be in good ecological condition and hosted a variety of sensitive species, Other stations were classified differently by the biotic indices used mainly because of the lack of a real inter-calibration of the various classification methodologies used by these indices.  相似文献   

Habitat continuity effects on gradients of fish biomass across marine protected area boundaries     

Forcada A  Bayle-Sempere JT  Valle C  Sánchez-Jerez P 《Marine environmental research》2008,66(5):536-547

Marine protected areas (MPAs) could be useful as fisheries management tools for the exportation of pelagic eggs, larvae and adult fish. A decreasing gradient of fish biomass across MPAs boundary may indicate export. We determine whether gradients of decreasing biomass of fish assemblage occurred in Tabarca Marine Reserve over two habitats with different continuity across the boundaries, to test if the patchy nature of the marine environment might act as a barrier for the fish export. In general, significant decreasing gradients in total fish biomass and biomass of some species were observed on P. oceanica and rocky substrates, independently of their different continuity through the reserve boundaries. Changes in the multivariate structure of the fish assemblage were correlated with the distance from integral reserve. All of these results support the hypothesis that the exportation of adult fish from Tabarca Marine Reserve occurs, and this process may influence the surrounding fished areas.  相似文献