Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective     

Mark W. Shephard  Eva Mekis  Robert J. Morris  Yang Feng  Xuebin Zhang  Karen Kilcup 《大气与海洋》2014,52(5):398-417

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.  相似文献   

VLISP与VBA结合编程在测量放线工作中的应用     

梁华冰 《测绘工程》2014,(5):75-77

作为CAD二次开发工具中比较易学的编程工具,VBA和VLISP各有优点。VLSIP善于直接使用AutoCAD的命令,而VBA用来开发对话框显得简单得多。文中介绍将它们结合起来并成功开发出一个在CAD电子图上拾取坐标生成两种不同格式的测量放线文件程序的简单实例,提出在进行CAD二次开发的过程中,发挥VBA与VLISP各自的优点,通过"中介"CAD系统变量来传递数据信息的方法,把两种程序结合起来开发CAD应用程序。  相似文献   

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China     

Li-Juan Li  Lu Zhang  Hao Wang  Juan Wang  Jun-Wei Yang  De-Juan Jiang  Jiu-Yi Li  Da-Yong Qin 《水文研究》2007,21(25):3485-3491

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Extreme storms in Malmö, Sweden     

Lars Bengtsson  Stefan Milloti 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3462-3475

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福建安海湾表层沉积物粒度特征及其现代沉积过程分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李东义  徐勇航  王爱军  郑斌鑫  李国刚 《沉积学报》2015,33(4):724-734

通过对福建安海湾表层沉积物的粒度分析和对比,应用系统聚类分析、粒径趋势模型和切应力计算公式,探讨了研究区粒度的分布特征、沉积环境分区、表层沉积物输运趋势及其影响因素.研究结果表明,研究区包括6种表层沉积物类型,以黏土质粉砂和粉砂为主,沉积物大体呈现自海湾两侧潮滩向潮汐通道变粗的分布趋势.表层沉积物粒度的分布特征与水动力条件和物质来源密切相关,湾口附近及湾内深槽内,细颗粒的沉积物被再悬浮带走,粗颗粒的含量增大;在湾内潮滩上,悬浮物质因水动力作用逐渐减弱发生分选沉降,形成向岸变细的横向分异.海湾外泥沙随潮流不断地向海湾东侧岸滩运移,海湾周边陆源来沙由湾顶部往湾口方向下泄,两者是导致表层沉积物出现明显的顺时针方向汇聚趋势的原因之一;表层沉积物的输运趋势、悬浮泥沙的输运、潮滩植被与湾口沙嘴的遮蔽效应共同影响了研究区内浅滩地形的形成和变化.研究区可分为四类沉积环境区,以潮滩和潮汐通道环境为主,不同沉积区内的粒度参数、粒级频率和敏感粒级均有差异,动力条件差异和不同物源的影响程度是现代沉积环境格局的主要影响因素.  相似文献   

长株潭地区建设用地扩张遥感时空特征分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

易凤佳  李仁东  常变蓉  邱娟 《国土资源遥感》2015,(2):160-166

利用遥感、GIS一体化技术,获取长沙、株洲、湘潭3市(长株潭地区)2000年、2005年和2010年3期陆地卫星图像,提取建设用地扩张及其空间分布信息。运用扩张速度指数和强度指数分别对2000—2010年间10 a变化以及2005年为界的前后两个5 a区域建设用地时序特征进行分析;利用优势度指数分析了区域建设用地扩张的空间趋向性。结果表明:长株潭地区建设用地在不同时期都处于增长的趋势,其中前5 a建设用地扩张速度和强度都要明显高于后5 a。2000—2010年间建设用地面积增加约3.94万hm2,前后2个时期的扩张面积分别占增加总量的57.30%和42.70%。对长株潭地区建设用地扩张进行时空特征分析,认为建设用地扩张引起区域内耕地和林地在数量和空间格局上的变化,城区周围9~12 km范围内耕地极易转入建设用地;2个时期河流附近耕地流入建设用地随距离变化而呈现不同特征;前5 a城区周围林地转入建设用地强度大,距离交通用地3 km附近的林地易转入建设用地。  相似文献   

PLAM指数跟踪方法对中国沙尘天气过程及其波动变化特征的研究          下载免费PDF全文

王继志  杨元琴  王亚强  张光智 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(5):92-97

采用1980-2011年气象台站地面气象要素观测资料、高空探空资料,时间和空间加密气象观测站资料,以及中国气象档案馆原始天气图表等资料,基于沙尘气溶胶浓度（PM₁₀）潜势源地贡献函数PSCF（Potential source contribution function）的沙尘系统追踪方法,发展空气质量气象条件PLAM（……）指数对沙尘天气过程的路径跟踪,给出1980-2011年东北亚沙尘天气过程特征分布;采用Spline趋势分析,讨论沙尘天气系统强度的年变化特征。结果表明：基于气溶胶浓度PSCF函数和气象条件PLAM指数追踪得出,中国和东亚地区沙尘天气过程年际强度变化并非单调减弱,具有历史持续性与转折突变性并存的波状变化趋势,出现准10 a的高低频活动特征。  相似文献   

An Overview of the Second Generation Adjusted Daily Precipitation Dataset for Trend Analysis in Canada     

Éva Mekis  Lucie A. Vincent 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):163-177

A second generation adjusted precipitation daily dataset has been prepared for trend analysis in Canada. Daily rainfall and snowfall amounts have been adjusted for 464 stations for known measurement issues such as wind undercatch, evaporation and wetting losses for each type of rain-gauge, snow water equivalent from ruler measurements, trace observations and accumulated amounts from several days. Observations from nearby stations were sometimes combined to create time series that are longer; hence, making them more useful for trend studies. In this new version, daily adjustments are an improvement over the previous version because they are derived from an extended dataset and enhanced metadata knowledge. Datasets were updated to cover recent years, including 2009. The impact of the adjustments on rainfall and snowfall total amounts and trends was examined in detail. As a result of adjustments, total rainfall amounts have increased by 5 to 10% in southern Canada and by more than 20% in the Canadian Arctic, compared to the original observations, while the effect of the adjustments on snowfall were larger and more variable throughout the country. The slope of the rain trend lines decreased as a result of the larger correction applied to the older rain-gauges while the slope of the snow trend lines increased, mainly along the west coast and in the Arctic. Finally, annual and seasonal rainfall and snowfall trends based on the adjusted series were computed for 1950–2009 and 1900–2009. Overall, rainfall has increased across the country while a mix of non-significant increasing and decreasing trends was found during the summer in the Canadian Prairies. Snowfall has increased mainly in the north while a significant decrease was observed in the southwestern part of the country for 1950–2009.

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ENSO发展和衰减阶段的陕西夏季降水异常特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

赵强  严华生  程路 《应用气象学报》2013,24(4):495-503

利用1961—2008年陕西78个气象站夏季 (6—8月) 降水资料、NCEP/NCAR位势高度场和风场月平均再分析资料,采用合成及相关分析方法探讨ENSO发展和衰减阶段对陕西夏季降水异常的影响,以期为陕西夏季降水的气候预测提供线索和依据。结果表明:陕西夏季降水异常对ENSO发展和衰减阶段的响应存在显著差异,El Ni?o发展阶段和La Ni?a衰减阶段,陕西夏季降水偏少; El Ni?o衰减阶段和La Ni?a发展阶段,陕西夏季降水偏多; ENSO不同阶段对陕西7月降水影响最为显著。比较而言,El Ni?o事件对陕西夏季降水的影响更加显著。在El Ni?o衰减、La Ni?a发展阶段,西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,东亚夏季风偏弱,而在El Ni?o发展、La Ni?a衰减阶段,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱、偏东,东亚夏季风偏强,El Ni?o过程对东亚夏季风强弱的影响更加显著。ENSO发展和衰减阶段通过影响大气环流变化和东亚夏季风的强弱,进而影响陕西夏季降水。  相似文献   

CDM potential in the power-generation and energy-intensive industries of China     

Mitsutsune Yamaguchi 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):167-184

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has emerged as an important carbon governance mechanism. However, forest governance is weak in most REDD+ countries, which undermines efforts to establish REDD+. This study analyses the factors that enable national REDD+ processes in the context of weak governance using a two-step ‘qualitative comparative analysis’ (QCA) of 12 REDD+ countries. Assuming that actor-related factors can be effective only if certain institutional preconditions are met, six factors were divided into two categories that were analysed separately: institutional setting (pressure from forest-resource shortage; forest legislation, policy, and governance; already initiated policy change) and the policy arena (national ownership; transformational coalitions; inclusiveness of the policy process). The factors were analysed to determine their role in efforts to establish comprehensive REDD+ policies that target transformational change. The results reveal path dependencies and institutional stickiness in all the study countries. Only countries already undertaking institutional change have been able to establish REDD+ policies in a relatively short period – but only in the presence of either high pressure from forest-resource shortages or key features of effective forest legislation, policy, and governance. Furthermore, where an enabling institutional setting is in place, the policy arena conditions of national ownership and transformational coalitions are crucial.Policy relevance Although the aim of REDD+ is to provide performance-based payments for emissions reductions, the outcomes in terms of actual emission reductions or co-benefits are not yet observable. Most REDD+ countries are still at the design and implementation stage for policies and measures. Indicators and criteria to measure progress in this phase are required to identify which factors enable or hinder countries' performance in delivering necessary policy change to provide targeted financial incentives to support countries' efforts. This study analyses the factors that shape national REDD+ processes in the context of weak governance using a two-step QCA of 12 REDD+ countries. The results show a set of enabling conditions and characteristics of the policy process under which REDD+ policies can be established. These findings may help guide other countries seeking to formulate REDD+ policies that are likely to deliver efficient, effective, and equitable outcomes.  相似文献