Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory     

Mohammad Ali Ghorbani  Rahman Khatibi  Loren Cobb 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1137-1151

Abstract

Modelling and prediction of hydrological processes (e.g. rainfall–runoff) can be influenced by discontinuities in observed data, and one particular case may arise when the time scale (i.e. resolution) is coarse (e.g. monthly). This study investigates the application of catastrophe theory to examine its suitability to identify possible discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process. A stochastic cusp catastrophe model is used to study possible discontinuities in the monthly rainfall–runoff process at the Aji River basin in Azerbaijan, Iran. Monthly-averaged rainfall and flow data observed over a period of 20 years (1981–2000) are analysed using the Cuspfit program. In this model, rainfall serves as a control variable and runoff as a behavioural variable. The performance of this model is evaluated using four measures: correlation coefficient, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results indicate the presence of discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process, with a significant sudden jump in flow (cusp signal) when rainfall reaches a threshold value. The performance of the model is also found to be better than that of linear and logistic models. The present results, though preliminary, are promising in the sense that catastrophe theory can play a possible role in the study of hydrological systems and processes, especially when the data are noisy.

Citation Ghorbani, M. A., Khatibi, R., Sivakumar, B. & Cobb, L. (2010) Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1137–1151.  相似文献   

水力裂缝穿越非连续面扩展时的断裂过程研究     

陈磊  张广清  张敏  曹庾杰  谌立吉 《岩土力学》2023,44(1):159-170

非连续面发育是非常规油气储层的显著地质特征之一,水力裂缝能否穿越非连续面扩展会关系到压裂的改造效果。为研究水力裂缝穿越非连续面扩展时断裂过程区（fracture process zone,简称FPZ）发育特征,采用自主设计的可视化压裂试验装置对含预制摩擦界面的砂岩平板试件开展水力压裂试验。基于数字图像相关法实时监测了水力裂缝正交穿越界面扩展过程中的位移及应变场特征。试验结果表明,水力裂缝穿越界面扩展之前,断裂过程区已经开始跨越界面发育;裂缝能否穿越界面扩展在FPZ的初始发育阶段已经注定,不受FPZ内应力软化过程影响。基于Renshaw-Pollard准则建立了考虑FPZ边界范围的裂缝穿越非连续面扩展准则,并通过前人及文中试验数据进行了可靠性验证。相比而言,改进准则更准确地考虑了裂缝前端线弹性断裂力学的适用范围。研究发现FPZ长宽比对裂缝穿越界面扩展准则有显著影响,相同条件下,FPZ长宽比越大,裂缝正交穿越界面扩展所需要的摩擦系数下限值越小。  相似文献   

循环荷载作用下岩石劈裂结构面剪切力学特性演化与影响因素研究     

尹敬涵  崔臻  盛谦  陈健  张茂础 《岩土力学》2023,44(1):109-118

基于现有结构面剪切力学特性研究中对简单几何形态结构面研究多,天然形态结构面研究少,力学性质演化研究多,几何形态演化研究少的研究现状,通过巴西劈裂试验制备近天然形态岩石结构面,并采用模拟材料批量复制劈裂结构面试样的方法,开展循环荷载作用下岩石劈裂结构面的剪切力学特性演化规律与影响因素研究,分析法向应力、循环剪切次数、岩壁强度以及结构面粗糙度对循环剪切作用下岩体结构面力学特性和形貌特征的影响。最终通过在黏着摩擦理论-Barton经验公式中引入与循环剪切次数Nd有关的负指数假定劣化参数,提出了岩体结构面循环剪切强度公式。研究结果表明：法向应力、岩壁强度、结构面粗糙度越大,结构面的最大剪应力越大;法向应力、循环剪切次数、结构面粗糙度越大,岩壁强度越小,则归一化粗糙度参数越小。提出的循环剪切强度公式较好地验证了试验结果,可为工程安全设计提供理论参考。  相似文献   

安徽沿江地区燕山期火成岩成岩成矿地质背景   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  

杜建国  戴圣潜  莫宣学  邓晋福  许卫 《地学前缘》2003,10(4):551-560

安徽沿江地区位于长江中下游Cu,Fe成矿带的中段。通过区内变质基底类型、时代和地球物理、地球化学资料等综合研究,证明该区存在一元古宙基底缝合带,即“古岩石圈尺度不连续”,燕山期的强烈构造-岩浆-成矿活动是“古岩石圈尺度不连续”的“再活化”的表现。燕山期火成岩岩石构造组合以及岩浆作用有关的矿种组合表征它也是深达地幔的岩石圈尺度不连续,实质上岩石圈尺度不连续为区内的重要控岩、控矿构造,而燕山期挤压加厚环境中形成的高钾钙碱性系列火成岩及对应的Cu,Au组合、橄榄安粗岩系列火成岩及对应的Fe,S组合是岩浆成矿受壳幔相互作用和幔源物质贡献等因素控制的直接反映。同时,文中还利用了Nd-Sr同位素示踪体系对区内中、新生代地幔类型进行了初步研究,论证了中-新生代岩石圈/软流圈发生了灾变事件,区内晚中生代属富集型地幔(EMⅡ),火成岩为富集型地幔(EMⅡ)与亏损地幔(DM)或下地壳(IC)相互作用的结果,新生代则成为亏损型地幔(DM),这种地幔类型的变化是导致中国东部燕山期大规模岩浆成矿作用和岩石圈减薄的  相似文献   

Late amagmatic extension along the central and eastern segments of the West Philippine Basin fossil spreading axis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Anne Deschamps  Kyoko OkinoKantaro Fujioka 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,203(1):277-293

The spreading processes within the West Philippine Basin (WPB) remain partly unknown. This study presents an analysis of the tectono-magmatic processes that happened along its spreading axis during the conclusion of the last spreading phase at 33/30 Ma. We demonstrate that the late episode of N-S opening from an E-W-trending spreading system has been followed by a late tectonic event occurring in the central and eastern parts of the basin. This event was responsible for transtensional strain accommodated along the NW-SE faults cutting through the former E-W rift valley in the central part of the basin. In its eastern part, the same event occurred at a larger extent and led to the creation of a new NW-SE axis, obliquely cutting the older E-W spreading segments and their associated spreading fabrics. At this location, several tens of kilometers of slightly oblique amagmatic extension occurred following a ∼60° direction. We propose that this late event is associated with the onset of E-W opening of the Parece-Vela Basin located along the eastern border of the WPB at 30 Ma. Extensive stresses within this basin were probably transmitted to the hot and easily deformable rift zone of the WPB. The newly-created NW-SE axis most likely propagated from east to west, being responsible for scissors opening within the WPB. NE-SW extension ceased when well-organized spreading started at 26 Ma in Parece-Vela Basin, accommodating entirely the global extensive stress pattern.  相似文献   

Simultaneous inversion for mantle shear velocity and topography of transition zone discontinuities     

Yu J. Gu  Adam M. Dziewo&#;ski  Göran Ekström 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,154(2):559-583

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Thermal variations in the mantle inferred from 660 km discontinuity topography and tomographic wave speed variations     

George Helffrich 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,151(3):935-943

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Tailored Blast Wave Production Pertaining to Supernova Remnants     

A. S. Moore  D. R. Symes  R. A. Smith 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,298(1-2):287-291

We report on the first production of “tailored” blast waves in cluster media using a 1 ps laser pulse focused to 2×10¹⁶ W/cm². This new technique allows cylindrical blast waves to be produced with a strong axial modulation of variable spatial frequency, as a seed for instability growth. Energy deposition is modified by changing the cluster density whilst keeping the atomic density of the target constant. Electron density maps show the production of strongly modulated blast waves and the development of a thin shell structure in H at late times, and the trajectories show blast waves forming in H, and Ar. In Xe, a blast wave does not form on the timescales studied. Analysis of astrophysical similarity parameters suggests that a hydrodynamically similar situation is created in H, and that further evolution would create a regime where radiative effects may be influential in Ar and Xe.  相似文献   

Finite-frequency sensitivity kernels for boundary topography perturbations   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

F. A. Dahlen 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,162(2):525-540

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Barite concretions as evidence of pauses in sedimentation in the Marnes Bleues Formation of the Vocontian Basin (SE France)     

Jean-G. Brhret  Hans-J. Brumsack 《Sedimentary Geology》2000,130(3-4):205-228

Several intervals rich in barite nodules occur in the mid-Cretaceous marls of the Vocontian Trough (SE France). These concretions, which grew on heterogeneities in the sediment, are arranged as horizons parallel to the bedding, and are often associated with carbonate and phosphate nodules. Detailed sedimentological and stratigraphical observations suggest that they represent the consequence of short-term pauses in sedimentation during early diagenesis, but the most important occurrences of barite are below prominent discontinuities. This may be explained by the frequency of pauses in sedimentation caused by a progressive starvation, or an increase in the energy of bottom-water currents. The high number of barite occurrences on the basin margins is directly linked to the recurrence of sedimentary breaks. The geochemical data show that the host sediment corresponds to a pelagic setting, far from hydrothermal influences, but generally in a restricted, dysoxic to suboxic, depositional environment. The sulphur isotopic composition of the barite sulphate (+16 to +76‰ rel. CDT) supports the hypothesis of an early diagenetic origin of the barite nodules. Their genesis may be explained by the fixation of a diagenetic front corresponding to the penetration of a sulphate reduction zone from the seawater–sediment interface down in the sediment which is in contact with barium-rich porewaters expelled upwards as a consequence of compaction. The barium of biogenic origin, initially stored in the underlying black shale, was mobilized under strongly reducing conditions. Such fixation is normally induced by a pause or a stop in sedimentation due to starvation or renewed bottom-water circulation. Together with other concretions, the barite nodules mark condensed stratigraphic intervals and often represent major breaks. As such they shed light on variations in sedimentary activity and their importance in the sedimentology and stratigraphy of pelagic marly sequences cannot be ignored.  相似文献