利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

秦嘉政  钱晓东 《地震学报》2004,26(2):140-150

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.   相似文献   

A Simple Parameterisation for Flux Footprint Predictions   总被引：9，自引：6，他引：9  

N. Kljun  P. Calanca  M. W. Rotach  H. P. Schmid 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,112(3):503-523

Flux footprint functions estimate the location and relative importance of passive scalar sources influencing flux measurements at a given receptor height. These footprint estimates strongly vary in size, depending on receptor height, atmospheric stability, and surface roughness. Reliable footprint calculations from, e.g., Lagrangian stochastic models or large-eddy simulations are computationally expensive and cannot readily be computed for long-term observational programs. To facilitate more accessible footprint estimates, a scaling procedure is introduced for flux footprint functions over a range of stratifications from convective to stable, and receptor heights ranging from near the surface to the middle of the boundary layer. It is shown that, when applying this scaling procedure, footprint estimates collapse to an ensemble of similar curves. A simple parameterisation for the scaled footprint estimates is presented. This parameterisation accounts for the influence of the roughness length on the footprint and allows for a quick but precise algebraic footprint estimation.  相似文献   

土水特征曲线的通用数学模型研究   总被引：13，自引：3，他引：13  

戚国庆  黄润秋 《工程地质学报》2004,12(2):182-186

土水特征曲线对于研究非饱和土的物理力学特性至关重要。根据土水特征曲线可以确定非饱和土的强度、体应变和渗透系数 ,甚至可以确定地下水面以上水份分布。由于土体物理力学特性的差异 ,导致描述其土水特征曲线的数学模型也各不相同。因此 ,建立土水特征曲线的通用数学表达式 ,显得尤为必要。本文对土水特征曲线数学模型进行了研究 ,依据这些模型的数学表达式形式 ,将其划分为 4种类型。分别由这 4种类型的数学模型推导出具有统一表达式形式的土水特征曲线通用数学模型 ,并运用陕北高原黄土土水特征曲线试验数据对通用数学模型进行了研究  相似文献   

综合物探方法在汤上屯地热勘探中的应用研究     

龙凡  韩天成 《地下水》2004,26(1):43-47

本文通过联剖、电测深、磁法和测温法等综合工作成果,分析、推断出汤上屯热水构造的产状、性质和热水出露条件,圈定出了热水分布范围.  相似文献   

Nonlinear Shallow Water Theories for Coastal Waves     

Eric Barthélemy 《Surveys in Geophysics》2004,25(3-4):315-337

Ocean waves entering the near-shore zone undergo nonlinear and dispersive processes. This paper reviews nonlinear models, focusing on the so-called Serre equations. Techniques to overcome their limitations with respect to the phase speed are presented. Nonlinear behaviours are compared with theoretical results concerning the properties of Stokes waves. In addition, the models are tested against experiments concerning periodic wave transformation over a bar topography and of the shoaling of solitary waves on a beach.  相似文献   

Use of microtremor measurement for assessing site effects in Northern Belgium – interpretation of the observed intensity during the MS = 5.0 June 11 1938 earthquake     

F. Nguyen  G. Van Rompaey  H. Teerlynck  M. Van Camp  D. Jongmans  T. Camelbeeck 《Journal of Seismology》2004,8(1):41-56

To provide quantitative information on site effects in the northern part of Belgium, forty-seven H/V microtremor measurements were performed with 5 second seismometers over an area of about 15.000 km². Most of the results show a northward regular increase of the fundamental period in agreement with the augmentation of the Mesozoic and Cainozoic soft sedimentsthickness from a few meters 40 km south of Brussels to 900 m at the Netherlands-Belgium border. The measured resonance frequency values wereconsistent with theoretical computations performed at different sites onthe basis of existing information and shallow seismic experiments. At oneparticular site (Uccle) where borehole data were available, microtremor measurements using an array of four seismological stations with differentapertures allowed to obtain the low frequency part of the Rayleigh wave dispersion curve, extending the range covered by the analysis of surfacewaves artificially generated. The Vs profile derived from the surface waveinversion corroborates the 1 Hz natural frequency of the site. Comparison of these results with the macroseismic information concerning the M_S = 5.0 1938 earthquake which occurred 50 km west of Brussels,confirmed the hypothesis that the geological structure of the Brabant massifis likely to control damage distribution during such an earthquake. Comparisonbetween the intensity map of the 1938 earthquake and the resonance period ofsediments obtained by our microtremor study shows a clear relation betweenthe two parameters. During the 1938 earthquake, site effects played a prominent role due to the dimension of the source whose corner frequency wasabout 1 Hz.  相似文献   

Field vibration mitigation by honeycomb WIB for pile foundations of a high-speed train viaduct   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Hirokazu Takemiya   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(1):69-87

Environmental vibrations from recent high-speed trains are becoming a special concern in the civil and environmental engineering field since they can give detrimental effects to residents, sensitive equipments and high-tech production facilities in the vicinity of train tacks. Herein, aiming at the vibration mitigation for a specific high-tech industrial area, the low-frequency vibrations from a train viaduct are targeted over an anticipated range. A theoretically designed innovative countermeasure, called honeycomb wave impeding barrier (WIB) for a wave impeding barrier, is introduced and its effects are investigated by computer simulation. The present WIB is based on the wave dispersion phenomenon that can modulate the incoming wavelengths into the shorter wavelengths, creating an apparent wave cut-off characteristic in the wave field across WIB installation area. The shorter wavelengths are further impeded due to the impedance ratio of the WIB walls and in-fill materials and absorbed by the in-fills more. The three-dimensional FEM simulation demonstrates a dramatic reduction effect that is difficult to achieve by conventional measures.  相似文献   

Right-Angle Rooftop Polygon Extraction in Regularised Urban Areas: Cutting the Corners   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Croitoru  Y. Doytsher 《The Photogrammetric Record》2004,19(108):311-341

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电吸附找矿方法   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

周奇明  周立宏  董树政 《物探与化探》2004,28(3):199-201

电吸附找矿方法是找隐伏矿的新方法。它是指通过物理化学手段来发现后生地球化学异常的找矿方法。它是建立在异常元素地球化学理论和野外地电提取法的理论基础之上。利用电吸附找矿方法在一些已知矿床进行找矿效果试验,获得了很好的效果,说明了该方法找矿的有效性。  相似文献   

沉降-时间曲线呈“S”型的证明   总被引：13，自引：5，他引：13  

梅国雄  宰金珉  殷宗泽  赵维炳  殷建华 《岩土力学》2004,25(1):20-22

从一维固结理论出发，严格证明了在线性加载或近似线性加载情况下（这和工程实际加载相类似），沉降-时间曲线呈“S”型。  相似文献