中国冰冻圈水文未来变化及其对干旱区水安全的影响   总被引：10，自引：9，他引：1  

丁永建  赵求东  吴锦奎  张世强  王生霞  苌亚平  李向应  上官冬辉  韩海东  秦甲  韩添丁 《冰川冻土》2020,42(1):23-32

受气候变暖持续影响, 中国冰冻圈水文过程正在发生着显著变化。在梳理已有过去冰冻圈融水变化基础上, 重点分析了冰冻圈融水径流未来变化特点, 尤其是对冰川融水拐点及温升2 ℃阈值情况下, 到2050年和21世纪末, 冰川融水的可能变化进行了辨析, 进而研判了冰冻圈水文变化对流域、 重点是干旱区内陆河流域水安全的影响。研究表明, 中国未来大部分流域冰川融水径流总体呈现减少趋势, 并呈现冰川径流持续减少、 在不久的将来出现峰值和持续增加三种情况; 单条冰川融水可能会出现拐点, 而且拐点是否出现和出现的时间与升温速率和冰川面积大小有关; 在流域尺度上, 冰川覆盖率较大、 大型冰川面积占比较高的流域, 到2050年融水径流持续稳定增加; 冰川规模较小的流域, 冰川径流峰值早已出现; 介于上述两种情况之间的大多数流域, 冰川融水峰值在2020 - 2030年相继出现或变化呈现不显著增加或减少, 相对稳定; RCP情景温升2 ℃阈值下, 到21世纪末, 西北干旱区冰川融水量减少34% ~ 74%。冰冻圈水文变化导致水源涵养能力下降、 径流补给量减少、 对水资源的调节作用减弱、 流域径流变化幅度增加、 发生旱涝的风险增加、 春汛提前进而影响用水制度。  相似文献   

人类活动影响剧烈背景下的海河流域水文修订成果研究     

陈太文  田水娥  刘伟 《水文》2019,39(1):85-88

海河流域水资源开发利用率高,近几十年来未发生较大洪水,水资源开发利用、水土保持、城镇化建设等人类活动对海河流域产汇流特性持续产生明显影响,为七大流域中人类活动影响较大的流域之一。分析了海河流域下垫面变化趋势及对产汇流影响,研究了水文成果修订方法,提出了水文修订成果。在此基础上,总结了海河流域水文修订成果存在的问题,并提出下一步工作建议。  相似文献   

澜沧江水资源系统变化与大湄公河次区域合作的关联分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

冯彦  何大明  甘淑 《世界地理研究》2005,14(4):49-56

针对澜沧江-湄公河水资源系统变化的跨境影响这一受到国际社会,特别是下游国关注的问题,结合流域各国水需求及区域性协定之规定,对比分析澜沧江大坝建设后对径流的影响,发现：（1）年出境水量呈小幅增长趋势,总体上有利于下游水资源利用;（2）个别年份枯季出境水量明显减少的主要原因是降水少和个别电站运行失误所致,电站本质上不会对下游用水和生态产生实质性危害;（3）出境水量变化主要对下游中上段产生明显影响,越往下游影响力越小;（4）出境水质稳定。建议：尽早制定流域综合规划和国际水分配方案;合理调整水库运行方案,避免出境水量或水位的大幅变化,减少跨境负面影响,维护区域合作。  相似文献   

Performance of the Wind Farm Parameterization Scheme Coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model under Multiple Resolution Regimes for Simulating an Onshore Wind Farm     

Rajabu J.MANGARA  Zhenhai GUO  Shuanglin LI 《大气科学进展》2019,36(2):119-132

We use the Wind Farm Parameterization(WFP) scheme coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model under multiple resolution regimes to simulate turbulent wake dynamics generated by a real onshore wind farm and their influence at the local meteorological scale. The model outputs are compared with earlier modeling and observation studies. It is found that higher vertical and horizontal resolutions have great impacts on the simulated wake flow dynamics. The corresponding wind speed deficit and turbulent kinetic energy results match well with previous studies. In addition, the effect of horizontal resolution on near-surface meteorology is significantly higher than that of vertical resolution. The wake flow field extends from the start of the wind farm to downstream within 10 km, where the wind speed deficit may exceed 4%. For a height of 150 m or at a distance of about 25 km downstream, the wind speed deficit is around 2%. This indicates that, at a distance of more than 25 km downstream, the impact of the wind turbines can be ignored. Analysis of near-surface meteorology indicates a night and early morning warming near the surface, and increase in near-surface water vapor mixing ratio with decreasing surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. During daytime, a slight cooling near the surface and decrease in the near-surface water vapor mixing ratio with increasing surface sensible and latent heat fluxes is noticed over the wind farm area.  相似文献   

Single-element Anomaly Mapping from Stream Sediment Geochemical Landscapes Aided by Digital Terrain Analysis          下载免费PDF全文

XIANG Jie  XIA Peng  XIAO Keyan  Emmanuel John M. CARRANZA  CHEN Jianping 《《地质学报》英文版》2023,97(1):149-162

The identification of anomalies within stream sediment geochemical data is one of the fastest developing areas in mineral exploration. The various means used to achieve this objective make use of either continuous or discrete field models of stream sediment geochemical data. To map anomalies in a discrete field model of such data, two corrections are required: background correction and downstream dilution correction. Topography and geomorphology are important factors in variations of element con...  相似文献   

溢油在海洋生态系统中的风化、生态学效应及环境风险评价          下载免费PDF全文

张晖  母清林  韩锡锡  王悠 《海洋科学》2023,47(1):99-107

海洋石油污染是全球性的海洋环境问题之一,对海洋生态系统影响极大。本文综述了溢油入海后降解、转化及其随食物链的传递过程,分析其对海洋三大生物类群的毒性效应及可能的作用机制,探讨评价溢油环境风险的方法,并对今后的研究进行展望,为深入研究溢油的生态学效应、科学评价溢油的环境生态风险提供参考。  相似文献