Assessment of regional estimation error by canonical residual kriging     

M. Kamali Nezhad  T. B. M. J. Ouarda  K. Chokmani  M. Barbet  P. Bruneau  S. El. Adlouni 《水文研究》2011,25(9):1418-1430

Various regional flood frequency analysis procedures are used in hydrology to estimate hydrological variables at ungauged or partially gauged sites. Relatively few studies have been conducted to evaluate the accuracy of these procedures and estimate the error induced in regional flood frequency estimation models. The objective of this paper is to assess the overall error induced in the residual kriging (RK) regional flood frequency estimation model. The two main error sources in specific flood quantile estimation using RK are the error induced in the quantiles local estimation procedure and the error resulting from the regional quantile estimation process. Therefore, for an overall error assessment, the corresponding errors associated with these two steps must be quantified. Results show that the main source of error in RK is the error induced into the regional quantile estimation method. Results also indicate that the accuracy of the regional estimates increases with decreasing return periods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Adaptive isogeometric finite element analysis of steady‐state groundwater flow          下载免费PDF全文

Yared W. Bekele  Trond Kvamsdal  Arne M. Kvarving  Steinar Nordal 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(5):738-765

Numerical challenges occur in the simulation of groundwater flow problems because of complex boundary conditions, varying material properties, presence of sources or sinks in the flow domain, or a combination of these. In this paper, we apply adaptive isogeometric finite element analysis using locally refined (LR) B‐splines to address these types of problems. The fundamentals behind isogeometric analysis and LR B‐splines are briefly presented. Galerkin's method is applied to the standard weak formulation of the governing equation to derive the linear system of equations. A posteriori error estimates are calculated to identify which B‐splines should be locally refined. The error estimates are calculated based on recovery of the L₂‐projected solution. The adaptive analysis method is first illustrated by performing simulation of benchmark problems with analytical solutions. Numerical applications to two‐dimensional groundwater flow problems are then presented. The problems studied are flow around an impervious corner, flow around a cutoff wall, and flow in a heterogeneous medium. The convergence rates obtained with adaptive analysis using local refinement were, in general, observed to be of optimal order in contrast to simulations with uniform refinement. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A water balance approach for quantifying subsurface exchange fluxes and associated errors in hill reservoirs in semiarid regions          下载免费PDF全文

Maroua Bouteffeha  Cécile Dages  Rachida Bouhlila  Jérôme Molenat 《水文研究》2015,29(7):1861-1872

Hill reservoirs are rain water‐harvesting structures that have been increasingly adopted in arid and semi‐arid regions, such as North Africa, to capture and conserve runoff water and for use as alternative water resources in agricultural development. Currently, process‐based information on reservoir hydrology is needed to improve reservoir management practices. The study aims to develop an approach to estimate the reservoir–subsurface exchange flux and its associated error at the annual, monthly, and intra‐monthly time scales to better understand the hydrological functioning and dynamics of hill reservoirs. This approach is based on a hydrological water balance of the hill reservoir by considering all water input and output fluxes and their associated errors. The results demonstrate the ability and relevance of the approach in estimating the net reservoir–subsurface exchange flux and its error estimations at various time scales. Its application on the Kamech catchment (Northern Tunisia) for the 2009–2012 period demonstrates that the net reservoir–subsurface exchange flux is positive, i.e. the infiltration from the hill reservoir to the aquifer dominates over the discharge from the aquifer to the reservoir. Moreover, reservoir–subsurface exchange constitutes the main output component in the water balance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Addressing uncertainty in reflectivity‐rainfall relations in mountain watersheds during summer convection          下载免费PDF全文

Hernan A. Moreno  Enrique R. Vivoni  David J. Gochis 《水文研究》2014,28(3):688-704

The use of precipitation estimates from weather radar reflectivity has become widespread in hydrologic predictions. However, uncertainty remains in the use of the nonlinear reflectivity–rainfall (Z‐R) relation, in particular for mountainous regions where ground validation stations are often lacking, land surface data sets are inaccurate and the spatial variability in many features is high. In this study, we assess the propagation of rainfall errors introduced by different Z‐R relations on distributed hydrologic model performance for four mountain basins in the Colorado Front Range. To do so, we compare spatially integrated and distributed rainfall and runoff metrics at seasonal and event time scales during the warm season when convective storms dominate. Results reveal that the basin simulations are quite sensitive to the uncertainties introduced by the Z‐R relation in terms of streamflow, runoff mechanisms and the water balance components. The propagation of rainfall errors into basin responses follows power law relationships that link streamflow uncertainty to the precipitation errors and streamflow magnitude. Overall, different Z‐R relations preserve the spatial distribution of rainfall relative to a reference case, but not the precipitation magnitude, thus leading to large changes in streamflow amounts and runoff spatial patterns at seasonal and event scales. Furthermore, streamflow errors from the Z‐R relation follow a typical pattern that varies with catchment scale where higher uncertainties exist for intermediate‐sized basins. The relatively high error values introduced by two operational Z‐R relations (WSR‐57 and NEXRAD) in terms of the streamflow response indicate that site‐specific Z‐R relations are desirable in the complex terrain region, particularly in light of other uncertainties in the modelling process, such as model parameter values and initial conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

西藏高原测站降水与TRMM估测降水一致性评估     

罗布坚参  翟盘茂  假拉  吴璐  赤曲  次旦巴桑 《气象》2015,41(9):1119-1125

利用124个测站2011—2012年6—8月逐小时降水资料,分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的TRMM估测降水和DEM 高程数据,采用相关系数、相对误差和准确性指标,分析了西藏高原TRMM估测降水整体表现能力及海拔高度对降水估测影响。结果表明：TRMM估测降水在西藏高原整体趋势较一致,降水量级偏大,次数偏多;平均无降水准确率远高于平均有降水准确率,漏测率低而空测率高,降水量大的测站TRMM估测能力相对强。西藏高原上大部分测站处于相对低洼（河谷）地带,海拔高度差较小的区域TRMM估测降水与测站降水误差小,较大的区域误差则大。  相似文献   

封闭环境下限制误差发散的高精度导航定位     

王晓静  唐超  王勇  侯海倩  杨晓飞 《测绘通报》2021,(8):65-68,73

基于GNSS系统的导航定位设备在封闭或受阻环境下导航精度受限,为此,提升地下空间或室内定位精度,摆脱对GNSS的依赖是当前的研究热点。针对该问题,本文研究了LiDAR+IMU+DMI多源传感器导航定位技术,通过将LiDAR控制标靶数据带入卡尔曼滤波方程,计算IMU+DMI组合的误差状态向量,限制其误差发散,从而获取设备的高精度位置。该技术能使移动检测设备完全摆脱对GNSS信号的依赖,实现地下封闭空间移动测量设备精确定位,便于地下空间检测。通过在武汉某地铁试验表明,本文算法适用于地下、室内空间封闭环境中无GNSS信号的移动测量设备高精度导航定位。  相似文献   

模式时间关联误差对集合平方根滤波估算土壤湿度的影响   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Mao Fuping  Zhang Shuwen  Ye Dan  Yang Xixi 《地球科学进展》2015,30(6):700-708

为了定量评估模式时间关联误差对NOAH陆面模式同化表层土壤湿度观测估算土壤湿度廓线的影响,采用集合平方根滤波(En SRF)与状态增广相结合的技术,开展同时更新状态变量和订正模式偏差的观测系统模拟试验,结果表明:同化时若不对存在较大系统性偏差的模式时间关联误差进行处理,En SRF就不能有效估算土壤湿度廓线,而采用状态增广和En SRF相结合的技术,可以在更新土壤湿度时同步订正模式偏差,土壤湿度估算精度明显提高。敏感性试验进一步表明:模式偏差大小、同化时间间隔和观测误差会以不同方式对同化结果造成影响。  相似文献   

Modeling tropical river runoff: A time dependent approach     

Rashmi Nigam  Sudhir Nigam  Sushil K. Mittal 《寒旱区科学》2014,6(3):0247-0256

Forecasting of rainfall and subsequent river runoff is important for many operational problems and applications related to hydrology. Modeling river runoff often requires rigorous mathematical analysis of vast historical data to arrive at reasonable conclusions. In this paper we have applied the stochastic method to characterize and predict river runoffofthe perennial Kulfo River in southem Ethiopia. The time series analysis based auto regressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） approach is applied to mean monthly runoff data with 10 and 20 years spans. The varying length of the input runoff data is shown to influence the forecasting efficiency of the stochastic process. Preprocessing of the runoff time series data indicated that the data do not follow a seasonal pattern. Our forecasts were made using parsimonious non seasonal ARIMA models and the results were compared to actual 10-year and 20-year mean monthly runoff data of the Kulfo River. Our results indicate that river runoff forecasts based upon the 10-year data are more accurate and efficient than the model based on the 20-year time series.  相似文献   

An improved method for correction of air temperature measured using different radiation shields     

Xinghong Cheng  Debin Su  Deping Li  Lu Chen  Wenjing Xu  Meilin Yang  Yongcheng Li  Zhizhong Yue  Zijing Wang 《大气科学进展》2014,31(6):1460-1468

The variation of air temperature measurement errors using two different radiation shields （DTR502B Vaisala,Finland,and HYTFZ01,Huayun Tongda Satcom,China） was studied.Datasets were collected in the field at the Daxing weather station in Beijing from June 2011 to May 2012.Most air temperature values obtained with these two commonly used radiation shields were lower than the reference records obtained with the new Fiber Reinforced Polymers （FRP） Stevenson screen.In most cases,the air temperature errors when using the two devices were smaller on overcast and rainy days than on sunny days; and smaller when using the imported rather than the Chinese shield.The measured errors changed sharply at sunrise and sunset,and reached maxima at noon.Their diurnal variation characteristics were,naturally,related to changes in solar radiation.The relationships between the record errors,global radiation,and wind speed were nonlinear.An improved correction method was proposed based on the approach described by Nakamura and Mahrt （2005） （NM05）,in which the impact of the solar zenith angle （SZA） on the temperature error is considered and extreme errors due to changes in SZA can be corrected effectively.Measurement errors were reduced significantly after correction by either method for both shields.The error reduction rate using the improved correction method for the Chinese and imported shields were 3.3％ and 40.4％ higher than those using the NM05 method,respectively.  相似文献   

MDT测试资料确定气水界面的方法研究     

王文涛  张辉  李华  李浩  刘东华 《海洋地质译丛》2014,(2):69-72

通过对MDT测压资料的分析,发现了造成测试点压力值存在误差的主要原因有两个方面：一方面是由于部分测压点储层物性差,测试探针抽吸地层流体后储层压力恢复需要的时间较长,然而由于实际原因测试压力恢复无法等待足够的测试时间;另一方面是由于部分物性较差储层较难形成好的泥饼,以至于受到比较严重的泥浆侵入使得测试点产生超压现象,测试得到的地层压力和实际压力相比偏大.同时分析发现物性较好的储层往往能够得到相对可靠的测试压力.合理的气水界面对于计算探明地质储量有着很重要的意义,尤其是高温高压气田,气水过渡带往往较大,可能会达到30m左右,这种情况下无法仅从钻遇情况分析气水界面,此时可以结合MDT测压资料分析气水界面,从而确定合理的地质储量.通过分析实际MDT测压资料,对不同测压点进行了误差分析并在此基础上提出了压力数据点的筛选原则.通过实际检验认为新的回归方法确定出的气水界面科学合理.  相似文献