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11.
Abstract A series of fifteen 96‐h forecasts made with a spectral numerical weather prediction model is studied with reference to errors in the planetary wavelengths. The major contributor to the short (less than 48‐h) range forecast error is identified as an external mode. The medium range forecast error (96 h) is internal in character and reflects a deficiency in the simulation of the quasi‐stationary components. 相似文献
12.
Nicholas Kettridge Maxwell C. Lukenbach Kelly J. Hokanson Kevin J. Devito Richard M. Petrone Carl A. Mendoza James Michael Waddington 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14132
The capability of peatland ecosystems to regulate evapotranspiration (ET) following wildfire is a key control on the resilience of their globally important carbon stocks under future climatic conditions. Evaporation dominates post-fire ET, with canopy and sub-canopy removal restricting transpiration and increasing evaporation potential. Therefore, in order to project the hydrology and associated stability of peatlands to a diverse range of post-fire weather conditions and future climates the regulation of evaporation must be accurately parameterised in peatland ecohydrological models. To achieve this, we measure the surface resistance (rs) to evaporation over the growing season one year post-fire within four zones of a boreal peatland that burned to differing depths, relating rs to near surface soil tensions. We show that the magnitude and temporal variability in rs varies with burn severity. At the peatland scale, rs and near-surface tension correlates non-linearly. However, at the point scale no relationship was evident between temporal variations in rs and near-surface tension across all burn severities; in part due to the limited fluctuation in near-surface tensions and the precision of rs measurements. Where automated measurements enabled averaging of errors, the relationship between near-surface tension and rs switched between periods of strong and weak correlation within a burned peat hummock. This relationship, when strong, deviated from that obtained under steady state laboratory conditions; increases in rs were more sensitive to fluctuations in near-surface tension under dynamic field conditions. Calculating soil vapour densities directly from near-surface tensions is shown to require calibration between peat types and provides little if any benefit beyond the derivation of empirical relationships between rs and measured soil tension. Thus, we demonstrate important spatiotemporal fluctuations in post-fire rs that will be key to regulating post-fire peatland hydrology, but highlight the complex challenges in effectively parameterising this important underlying control of near-surface tensions within hydrological simulations. 相似文献
13.
Climate sensitivities of two versions of FGOALS model to idealized radiative forcing 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Projections of future climate change by climate system models depend on the sensitivities of models to specified greenhouse gases.To reveal and understand the different climate sensitivities of two versions of LASG/IAP climate system model FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2,we investigate the global mean surface air temperature responses to idealized CO2 forcing by using the output of abruptly quadrupling CO2 experiments.The Gregory-style regression method is used to estimate the"radiative forcing"of quadrupled CO2 and equilibrium sensitivity.The model response is separated into a fast-response stage associated with the CO2 forcing during the first 20 years,and a slow-response stage post the first 20 years.The results show that the radiative forcing of CO2 is overestimated due to the positive water-vapor feedback and underestimated due to the fast cloud processes.The rapid response of water vapor in FGOALS-s2 is responsible for the stronger radiative forcing of CO2.The climate sensitivity,defined as the equilibrium temperature change under doubled CO2 forcing,is about 3.7 K in FGOALS-g2 and4.5 K in FGOALS-s2.The larger sensitivity of FGOALS-s2 is due mainly to the weaker negative longwave clear-sky feedback and stronger positive shortwave clear-sky feedback at the fast-response stage,because of the more rapid response of water vapor increase and sea-ice decrease in FGOALS-s2 than in FGOALS-g2.At the slow-response stage,similar to the fast-response stage,net negative clear-sky feedback is weaker in FGOALS-s2.Nevertheless,the total negative feedback is larger in FGOALS-s2 due to a larger negative shortwave cloud feedback that involves a larger response of total cloud fraction and condensed water path increase.The uncertainties of estimated forcing and net feedback mainly come from the shortwave cloud processes. 相似文献
14.
东亚干旱半干旱区沙漠化与气候变化相互影响研究进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
气候系统主要通过气温、降水及风场等因素影响沙漠化过程,但不同区域其影响机制存在较大差异。目前的研究结果表明,总体上,降水对沙漠化的影响较为明确,降水量增加有利于沙漠化逆转。气温和风场变化对沙漠化的影响存在明显区域差异：在季风带沙漠化区,气温升高及高空盛行西南风有利于沙漠化逆转;在非季风带沙漠化区,一方面气温升高导致蒸发量增加,沙漠化发展;另一方面,其增加了冰川、冰雪融水的补给,沙漠化逆转;在高寒带沙漠化区,旱灾和寒冻灾害是沙漠化的主因。此外,沙漠化过程通过植被、地表及土壤特征等的改变影响气候系统。例如沙漠化过程的发生伴随地表植被覆盖的变化,并通过改变地表反照率、潜热通量、粗糙度等来影响气温、降水等气候因子;还通过沙尘释放量的变化来影响降水的发生。虽然沙漠化与气候系统间存在多种反馈机制,但反照率—气温—降水—植被的正反馈及沙尘—降水—植被的正反馈是其主要反馈机制。 相似文献
15.
Ulf Riebesell 《Journal of Oceanography》2004,60(4):719-729
Rising atmospheric CO2 and deliberate CO2 sequestration in the ocean change seawater carbonate chemistry in a similar way, lowering seawater pH, carbonate ion concentration
and carbonate saturation state and increasing dissolved CO2 concentration. These changes affect marine plankton in various ways. On the organismal level, a moderate increase in CO2 facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of some phytoplankton groups. It also enhances the release of dissolved carbohydrates,
most notably during the decline of nutrient-limited phytoplankton blooms. A decrease in the carbonate saturation state represses
biogenic calcification of the predominant marine calcifying organisms, foraminifera and coccolithophorids. On the ecosystem
level these responses influence phytoplankton species composition and succession, favouring algal species which predominantly
rely on CO2 utilization. Increased phytoplankton exudation promotes particle aggregation and marine snow formation, enhancing the vertical
flux of biogenic material. A decrease in calcification may affect the competitive advantage of calcifying organisms, with
possible impacts on their distribution and abundance. On the biogeochemical level, biological responses to CO2 enrichment and the related changes in carbonate chemistry can strongly alter the cycling of carbon and other bio-active elements
in the ocean. Both decreasing calcification and enhanced carbon overproduction due to release of extracellular carbohydrates
have the potential to increase the CO2 storage capacity of the ocean. Although the significance of such biological responses to CO2 enrichment becomes increasingly evident, our ability to make reliable predictions of their future developments and to quantify
their potential ecological and biogeochemical impacts is still in its infancy.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
16.
进入人类纪尤其是近数十年来,人类活动对水文过程的影响愈来愈突出,愈来愈强烈,许多新的问题用传统水文学理论难以给出合理的分析和解释,因此,作为两个关注人类活动影响的水文学分支学科,社会水文学和城市水文学受到越来越多的关注。随着人水互动关系的增强,水文系统和人类系统逐渐演变为一个耦合系统,为研究其互馈关系和协同演化过程,社会水文学应运而生。城市是人类活动与自然系统相互影响最剧烈的部分之一,城市区域水循环问题日趋复杂,由此诞生了城市水文学。这两个学科的研究,对水资源和与其相关的经济社会发展的中长期规划和管理,指导城市规划建设、增强城市水安全和改善城市水环境具有重要意义。本文梳理了两个学科的发展规律,总结了研究特点。分析了两个学科的研究现状和发展趋势,包括社会水文学对社会因子的研究、典型流域的案例研究、不同案例的对比研究、模型模拟研究;以及城市水文学中城市化对降水和洪涝灾害的影响研究,城市化与生态环境响应关系的研究。本文探讨了两个学科的重点研究领域,如社会水文学中的本构关系研究、比较社会水文学研究、交叉学科研究等;城市水文学中的城市化对水文过程影响机理及模拟研究、城市暴雨洪水监测与预测预警技术研究、城市雨洪管理和资源化利用技术研究等。 相似文献
17.
New ENSO indices were developed and the spatial variability and temporal evolution of ENSO were analyzed based on the new indices and modeling experiments, as well as multiple data resources. The new indices, after being defined, were validated with their good diagnostic characteristics and correlation with wind and SST. In the analysis after the definition and validation of the new indices, ENSO feedbacks from wind, heat fluxes, and precipitation were spatially and temporally examined in order to understand ENSO variability and evolution with some emphasized points such as the interaction among the feedbacks, the role of westerly wind bursts and the transformation between zonal and meridional circulations in an ENSO cycle, and the typical pattern of modern ENSO. 相似文献
18.
Land clearance and hydrological change in the Sahel: SW Niger 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Marc J. Leblanc Guillaume Favreau Sylvain Massuel Sarah O. Tweed Maud Loireau Bernard Cappelaere 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,61(3-4):135-150
In the West African semiarid belt of the Sahel, for the second half of the XXth century, lasting droughts (1970s–1980s) and one of the World's highest population growths have resulted in major land cover and hydrological changes that can be quantified using aerial photographs. This paper aims to provide one of the longest combined observations of land cover and hydrological changes for semiarid areas using a time series of normalised mosaics of aerial photographs dating back from 1950, field inquiries, and updated groundwater data. The 500 km2 study area in southwest Niger was chosen (i) for its rural environment representative of the rain-fed agriculture belt of the Sahel and (ii) to encompass the main hydrological study sites investigated in this region over the past two decades (Hapex-Sahel and AMMA experiments, 1990–2000s). Results have significant implications for future freshwater availability and food security in the Sahel.Between 1950 and 1992, 80% of the study area has been cleared, firstly to open new areas for agriculture and secondly for firewood supply (59% of the plateaux, 42% of the valley bottoms, and 87% of the hillslopes). Intermediate aerial photograph surveys (1960, 1975) attest an accelerated loss in the woody savannah that could not be recovered on the short term. A strong, indirect impact of land clearance is observed on the water resources. Land clearance has resulted in a modification of the soil properties and infiltration capacity and has led to an increase in Hortonian runoff collected in numerous gullies and ponds. Between 1950 and 1992, aerial photographs show a 2.5 fold increase of the drainage density with the development of large drainage systems and new ponds. Groundwater data also indicate a continuous rise in the water table, mostly noticeable since the 1980s with a mean groundwater level rise of 4 m for the 1963–2005 period (+ 15% in aquifer reserves). The relatively short 30 year time-lag between the onset of land clearance and the beginning of the water table rise is linked to the process of indirect groundwater recharge and is timed with the connectivity of the drainage network and the formation of new ponds. Finally, the sustained increase in surface runoff and groundwater recharge during the past four decades indicates that the indirect impact of land clearance on the terrestrial water balance has been stronger than that of the long-lasting Sahelian drought. As the rate of land clearance increased for the past century in semiarid Africa, its main hydrological effects may not yet be fully perceptible. 相似文献
19.
Adam C. Watts Danielle L. Watts Matthew J. Cohen James B. Heffernan Daniel L. McLaughlin Jonathan B. Martin David A. Kaplan Todd Z. Osborne Leda N. Kobziar 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(15):2027-2037
Patterned landscapes are often evidence of biotic control on geomorphic processes, emerging in response to coupled ecosystem processes acting at different spatial scales. Self‐reinforcing processes at local scales expand patches, while self‐inhibiting processes, operating at a distance, impose limits to expansion. In Big Cypress National Preserve (BICY) in southwest Florida, isolated forested wetland depressions (cypress domes) appear to be evenly distributed within a mosaic of short‐hydroperiod marshes and pine uplands. To test the hypothesis that the apparent patterning is regular, we characterized frequency distributions and spatial patterns of vegetation communities, surface and bedrock elevation, and soil properties (thickness and phosphorus content). Nearest neighbor distances indicate strongly significant wetland spatial overdispersion, and bedrock elevations exhibited periodic spatial autocorrelation; both observations are consistent with regular patterning. Bedrock elevations and soil P were clearly bimodal, suggesting strong positive feedbacks on wetland patch development. Soil‐surface elevations exhibited weaker bimodality, indicating smoothing of surface morphology by some combination of sediment transport, mineral reprecipitation, and organic matter production. Significant negative autocorrelation of bedrock elevations at scales similar to wetland spacing suggest the presence of distal negative feedbacks on patch expansion. These findings support the inference of regular patterning, and are consistent with the presence of local positive feedbacks among hydroperiod, vegetation productivity and bedrock dissolution. These processes are ultimately constrained by distal negative feedbacks, potentially induced by landscape scale limitations on the water volume required to enable this biogeomorphic mechanism. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
末次冰盛期(Last Glacial Maximum,简称LGM)被认为是较适合用来估算气候系统响应对辐射强迫变化的古气候区间之一.理解LGM时期气候反馈过程有助于进一步限定气候敏感度的范围.本研究利用辐射核方法和参加第三次古气候模式比较计划(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase Ⅲ,简称PMIP3)的8个耦合模式资料,对比研究了LGM时期与abrupt4xCO2(4CO2)情景下的气候反馈特征.结果表明:全球平均而言,不同情景下温度反馈、水汽反馈和反照率反馈的强度存在显著差异,然而这一关系并不存在于云反馈过程中,这可能与情景间/模式间云反馈的不确定性相联系;在不同情景下,不同反馈过程强度也存在明显空间差异.温度反馈过程的差异主要来源于LGM时期大陆冰盖强迫引起的温度变化的高度空间不均一性和海陆分布改变引起的热带对流活动的变化;水汽反馈变化可能与海陆分布变化引起的沃克环流变化以及全球降温相联系;大陆冰盖和海冰存在是导致LGM时期地表反照率反馈增加的主要原因;而云反馈的差异可能与低云云量和模式间不确定性有关.LGM时期单独强迫数值试验将有助于进一步厘清不同气候状态下气候反馈过程差异的原因. 相似文献