Local Spatiotemporal Modeling of House Prices: A Mixed Model Approach   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jing Yao  A. Stewart Fotheringham 《The Professional geographer》2016,68(2):189-201

The real estate market has long provided an active application area for spatial–temporal modeling and analysis and it is well known that house prices tend to be not only spatially but also temporally correlated. In the spatial dimension, nearby properties tend to have similar values because they share similar characteristics, but house prices tend to vary over space due to differences in these characteristics. In the temporal dimension, current house prices tend to be based on property values from previous years and in the spatial–temporal dimension, the properties on which current prices are based tend to be in close spatial proximity. To date, however, most research on house prices has adopted either a spatial perspective or a temporal one; relatively little effort has been devoted to situations where both spatial and temporal effects coexist. Using ten years of house price data in Fife, Scotland (2003–2012), this research applies a mixed model approach, semiparametric geographically weighted regression (GWR), to explore, model, and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in the relationships between house prices and associated determinants. The study demonstrates that the mixed modeling technique provides better results than standard approaches to predicting house prices by accounting for spatiotemporal relationships at both global and local scales.  相似文献   

A STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR TREE‐RING RECONSTRUCTION OF HIGH‐MAGNITUDE MASS MOVEMENTS: CASE STUDY OF SNOW AVALANCHES IN EASTERN CANADA          下载免费PDF全文

DANIEL GERMAIN 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2016,98(4):303-311

This paper investigates the application of the peaks‐over‐threshold method in combination with fitting of the generalized Pareto distribution for estimating the frequency of high‐magnitude geomorphic events, on the basis of tree‐ring data. In particular, attention is focused on extreme value distribution of tree‐ring responses and in the minimum threshold or index number required to assure the past occurrence of high‐magnitude events. The objective is to set a threshold, adapted to the sample distribution, which will make the distinction between high‐magnitude years and remaining years, where the response of sampled trees is too weak to be attributed to a high‐magnitude geomorphic event. The statistical framework proposed is based on the statistics of extremes. Through the use of simple, strong and effective mathematics, this model should strengthen the position of dendrogeomorphology in the evaluation and management of natural hazards.  相似文献   

库车坳陷新生代构造应力场恢复     

郑淳方  侯贵廷  詹彦  于璇  赵文韬 《地质通报》2016,35(1):130-139

库车坳陷的构造变形及演化与南天山造山带的发育密切相关。库车坳陷新近纪以来的喜马拉雅晚期构造运动最为强烈,形成了天山山前大型冲断带,并造就了现今的构造格局。通过对库车坳陷北部构造样式的识别及各种应力场指示标志的测量、统计和构造解析,对野外获得的应力场指示标志划分了期次,认为喜马拉雅晚期应力场标志为近南北向挤压。结合库车坳陷区域构造要素,如地质体几何形态、边界条件、岩石力学参数等,运用弹性力学有限元数值模拟的方法获得了喜马拉雅晚期库车坳陷的区域应力场。模拟结果表明,库车坳陷喜马拉雅晚期最大主压应力方向为近南北向,与古应力场标志拟合较高,可以为库车坳陷裂缝预测和评价提供依据,对勘探开发有应用价值。  相似文献   

地质导向技术在L型煤层气水平井 T-P05井中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

郭宝林  李琪  张兴龙  聂涛  于建克  李盟国 《探矿工程》2018,45(1):9-13

通过分析山西L型煤层气水平井的技术难点,着重建立造斜着陆与水平段导向两大导向模型,形成了以标志层划分与对比、地层倾角推算、地质建模和实时轨迹控制四个方面为主的L型煤层气水平井地质导向技术流程,该技术在T-P05井的成功应用,不仅丰富了煤层气水平井地质导向技术的内容与方法,更进一步验证了该技术在现场具有较强的可操作性和良好的应用前景,值得大力推广。  相似文献   

基于数值模拟的再生水对地下水质影响实例     

崔瑜  吴泰然  周磊  周瑞静  杨巧凤 《地质通报》2018,37(7):1365-1373

为了探讨在再生水地表回灌条件下,再生水对地下水中氨素和主要盐分浓度变化的影响,选取现实存在的清河再生水湿地公园为例,以氨氮、Cl-离子为主要研究对象,利用Hydrus-1D溶质运移模型和Modflow、MT3DMSD耦合地下水模型,模拟了再生水长期利用后的地下水氨氮和Cl-指标变化情况。研究结果显示,再生水到达包气带底部时,水中氮氨、Cl-离子含量高于研究区潜水地下水中的相应指标含量,氨氮超出地下水质量Ⅲ类标准。预测5~20年后,潜水中氨氮超标面积不断扩展,20年后将达14km2,氨氮超标垂向延伸至第一层弱透水层;Cl-离子在潜水中不超标,但在湿地公园周边浓度有所增加。湿地公园再生水的长期地表回灌将给当地地下水质量带来负面影响。  相似文献   

Crust structure of the northeastern Barents Sea basin area     

A.L. Piskarev  A.A. Kireev  V.A. Savin  O.E. Smirnov 《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2018,59(7):803-812

Processing of data from regional geophysical surveys completed in the northern Barents Sea has provided updates to gravity and magnetic databases, structural maps of seismic interfaces, and positions of anomaly sources, which made a basis for 3D density and magnetic models of the crust. The new geological and geophysical results placed constraints on the boundaries between basement blocks formed in different settings and on the contours of deposition zones of different ages in the northeastern Barents Sea. The estimated thicknesses of sedimentary sequences that formed within certain time spans record the deposition history of the region. There is a 20-50 km wide deep suture between two basins of Mesozoic and Paleozoic ages in the eastern part of the region, where pre-Late Triassic reflectors have no clear correlation. The suture slopes eastward at a low angle and corresponds to a paleothrust according to seismic and modeling data. In the basement model, the suture is approximated by a zone of low magnetization and density, which is common to active fault systems. The discovery of the suture has important geological and exploration implications.  相似文献   

Role of heterogeneities in jointing (fracturing) of geological media: Numerical analysis of fracture mechanisms     

《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(8):452-463

Fracture process is investigated using finite-difference simulations with a new constitutive model. It is shown that both geometry and fracture mechanism itself depend on the preexisting heterogeneities that are stress concentrators. In the brittle regime (low pressure, P), Mode-I fractures propagate normal to the least stress σ₃ from the imposed weak zones. At high P, shear deformation bands are formed oblique to σ₃. At intermediate values of P, the fracture process involves both shear banding and tensile cracking and results in the initiation and propagation of pure dilation bands. The propagating band tip undulates, reacting on the failure mechanism changes, but its global orientation is normal to σ₃. The σ₃-normal fractures are joints. There are thus two types of joints resulting from Mode-I cracking and dilation banding, respectively. The obtained numerical results are in good agreement with and explain the results from previous similar experimental study.  相似文献   

Calibration of cyclic constitutive models by oscillating functions     

Muyiwa Ebenezer Alalade  Binod Kafle  Frank Wuttke  Tom Lahmer 《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2018,13(2):146-157

Most structures are subjected to more cyclic loads during their life time than static loads. These cyclic action could be a result of either natural or man-made activities and may lead to soil failure. In order to understand the response of the foundation and its interaction with these complex cyclic loadings, various researchers have over the years developed different constitutive models. Although a lot of research is being carried out on these relatively new models, little or no details exist in literature about the model-based identification of the cyclic constitutive parameters which to a large extent govern the quality of the model output. This could be attributed to the difficulties and complexities of the inverse modeling of such complex phenomena. A variety of optimisation strategies are available for the solution of the sum of least-squares problems as usually done in the field of model calibration. However, for the back analysis (calibration) of the soil response to oscillatory load functions, this article gives insight into the model calibration challenges and also puts forward a method for the inverse modeling of cyclic loaded foundation response such that high-quality solutions are obtained with minimum computational effort.  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地腹部地区生烃增压定量化评价——东道海子北凹陷为例          下载免费PDF全文

于春勇郭小文  任战利任文波 杨桂林 《地质科学》2018,(1):207-220

目前准噶尔盆地腹部地区超压演化过程仅提供了相对时间、概念、定性的认识,并未达到定量化。本文以东道海子北凹陷为例,基于流体包裹体、单井一维和剖面二维烃源岩成熟生烃史模拟技术,采用生烃增压模型定量化评价了侏罗纪八道湾组顶部和底部烃源岩的生烃增压演化过程。研究结果表明侏罗纪八道湾组为东道海子北凹陷主力烃源岩,具有幕式排烃的特点。八道湾组底部烃源岩经历了3 次超压增加和两次超压释放的过程,顶部烃源岩经历了两次超压增加和一次超压释放的过程。八道湾底部烃源岩3 次超压增加的时间分别为距今170～70 Ma、55～23 Ma、10～0 Ma,对应最大压力系数均为2.0,最大剩余流体压力50 MPa,两次超压释放的时间分别为70～55 Ma、23～10 Ma;八道湾组顶部烃源岩两次超压增加的时间分别为130～40 Ma、23～0 Ma,对应流体最大压力系数最大亦可达2.0 左右,最大剩余流体压力44 MPa,超压释放的时间为40～23 Ma。  相似文献   

基于CART算法的三维成矿预测研究——以安徽白象山矿区为例          下载免费PDF全文

李志辉  赵萍  李晓晖  袁峰  周宇章 《地质科学》2018,(4):1314-1326

把地质大数据和人工智能技术引入矿产资源定量评价及成矿预测体系中,提高了海量地质数据的有效信息挖掘,弥补了传统方法的不足。本文基于白象山矿区基础地质资料和物化探成果资料,利用三维地质体建模技术和三维空间分析技术,量化三维控矿因素,建立了一种基于CART 算法的三维成矿预测模型。通过在白象山矿区的实验表明：该模型能较好的定位已知矿体,并且预测出在已知矿体北部、东部、东北部、西部、南部和东南部具有较高的成矿概率,可圈定找矿靶区。该模型将地质大数据应用于找矿勘探工作,具有纯数据驱动、预测精度高、预测结果可靠等优点。研究发现,该模型的预测效果与训练数据集的数量、矿控因素提取、决策树深度等有关。  相似文献