GRAPES全球集合预报系统模式扰动随机动能补偿方案初步探究   总被引：10，自引：5，他引：5  

彭飞  李晓莉  陈静  李红祺 《气象学报》2019,77(2):180-195

为了体现次网格尺度能量升尺度转换过程中存在的不确定性, 文中将随机动能补偿(Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter, SKEB)方案应用于GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS), 以更好地表征模式误差并且增大集合离散度。使用的SKEB方案基于具有一定时、空相关特征的随机型以及由数值扩散导致的局地动能耗散率来构造随机流函数强迫。并根据流函数与水平风速旋转分量的关系, 将SKEB方案中的流函数强迫转化为适用于GRAPES全球模式的水平风速扰动。结果表明, SKEB方案的使用一方面能够提高GRAPES对大气动能谱的模拟能力; 另一方面能够改善GRAPES-GEPS的集合离散度与集合平均误差的关系, 增加了集合离散度, 并在一定程度上减小了集合平均误差, 尤其是在热带地区这种改进更为显著。而且该方案使得热带地区连续分级概率评分(CRPS评分)显著减小。就降水预报而言, 从Brier评分与相对作用特征面积(AROC, Area under the Relative Operating Characteristics)的结果来看, SKEB方案有助于改善中国地区小雨[0.1 mm, 10 mm)、中雨[10 mm, 25 mm)与大雨[25 mm, 50 mm)量级降水的概率预报技巧, 而对暴雨[50 mm, ∞)量级降水预报技巧影响很小(24 h降水量)。总体上, 模式扰动随机动能补偿方案提高了GRAPES-GEPS的概率预报技巧。   相似文献   

陆面过程模式BCC_AVIM中地表覆盖数据现状     

周文艳  罗勇  史学丽  李伟平  张艳武 《气象》2019,45(10):1476-1482

地表覆盖是陆面和气候模式中的一个重要基础数据。以陆面过程模式BCC_AVIM为例,介绍模式中的地表覆盖数据变量、数据分辨率、不同类型数据的来源,重点比较分类方法差异巨大且类型众多的植被覆盖。综述比较了国际和国内常用的几套全球地表覆盖数据的来源、分类系统和分类方法以及空间分辨率,根据陆面过程模式的地表覆盖数据需求,确定不同全球土地覆盖数据在模式中的应用方法,讨论分析了全球地表覆盖产品在模式应用中存在的差距,提出不同遥感数据产品之间一致性较差的可能解决方案,探讨遥感数据产品在模式中应用的可能方式,以期更好地发挥全球地表覆盖数据产品的作用。  相似文献   

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability     

FRANCIS H. S. CHIEW  THOMAS A. McMAHON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):505-522

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.  相似文献   

用解析有限元法嵌入地下水管理模型求最优解   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈雨孙 《水科学进展》1994,5(1):50-57

为了弥补当前地下水资源优化管理模型中通用的两种构模方法的缺点,即嵌入法的代数方程组过于庞大、上机困难,和响应矩阵法不保证全局最优,提出了用解析有限元法建立整体非稳定(即带有时间变量)抽水响应矩阵作为约束条件嵌入线性规划模型.这一方法由于具备了空间上表达任一节点在任一时刻的地下水运动规律的能力,克服了上述构模的两大缺点,其推广应用将有利于提高地下水资源的优化开发和管理.  相似文献   

气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响   总被引：76，自引：1，他引：76  

张福春 《地理学报》1995,50(5):402-410

本文根据我国的３０年的物候资料和气候资料的统计分析，论证了气温是影响中国木本植物物候的主要因子，在此基础上建立了物候与年平均气温的线性统计模式，又利用此模式分析计算了未来全球年平均气温升高０．５－２．０℃和未来大气中ＣＯ２浓度倍增而增暖情况下，我国主要木本植物物候期的大致变幅。  相似文献   

青藏高原地表净辐射的气候学研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

翁笃鸣  高建芸 《南京气象学院学报》1993,16(4):464-470

根据作者提出的地表净辐射各分量的气候学计算方法，计算出青藏高原及其周边地区１７３站的净辐射和其各分量的年，月平均通量密度，并分析其地理分布特征。指出高原主体为总辐射，有效辐射的高值区，地表净辐射场在冬，夏季有较大差异。冬季为一弱正值区，相对低中心呈块状散布在祁连山区等几个地区；夏季因夜雨及地表湿润的缘故，高原大部地区的地表净辐射反有加强。各地净辐射年变化基本形式与总辐射相似。有效辐射年变化一般呈双  相似文献   

全球月平均高度距平场正斜压性的分析(I)--相关系数分布          下载免费PDF全文

张邦林  刘洁 《大气科学学报》1993,16(3):308-313

利用欧洲中心全球客观分析的7层月平均位势高度距平资料,分别计算了相同格点上12-2月和6-8月各层高度距平之间的同时相关分布。结果表明:全球月平均位势高度距平场的正压、斜压性随地理区域变化很大,并有较明显的季节变化。其中12-2月对流层下部大气环流距平场在海洋上空有较好的相当正压性,在大陆上空正压性较差;对流层上部大气环流异常的正、斜压性分布与下部不同,赤道附近地区是相关系数的高值区,副热带地区主要是低值区;在对流层下部与上部大气环流距平场的相关系数分布图上,海洋上空并不总是高值区,在热带东太平洋区域就出现最强的负相关中心。与6-8月的相关系数分布型比较发现:特别明显的季节变化在非洲大陆和热带印度洋区域,12-2月为强正压区,6-8月为强斜压区。  相似文献   

DIAGNOSTIC STUDY FOR INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OF THE MIDDLE-HIGH LATITUDES IN A LOW RESOLUTION GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL     

Zhang Qin  Ni Yunqi  Lin Wuyin  Wang Zhaomin  D. D. Houghton 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1991,5(4):411-425

In this paper, five-year simulated data from a low-resolution global spectral model with triangular trunca-lion at wavenumber 10 are analyzed in order to study dynamical features and propagation characteristics ofintraseasonal oxillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropical atmosphere. The simulations show that thereis the 30-50 day periodic oscillation in the low-resolution spectral model without non-seasonal external forcing,and spatial scale of the intraseasonal oscihations is of the globe .Further analysis finds that propagation charac-ters of intraseasonal oscillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropics are different. The 30-50 day oscillationover the tropics exhibits structure of the velocity potential wave with wavenumber 1 in the latitudinal and thecharacter of the traveling wave eastward at speed of 8 longitudes/day. However, the 30-50 day oscillationsin mid-latitude atmosphere exhibit phase and amplitude oscillation of the standing planetary waves and theyare related to transform of teleconnection patterns over the mid-latitudes. The energy is not only transferredbetween the tropics and the middle-high latitudes, but also between different regions over the tropics. Based on the analysis of 5-year band pass filtered data from a 5-layer global spectral model of Jow-ordetwith truncated wavenumber l0,investigation is done of the source of intraseasonal oscillations in the extratropicalmodel atmosphere and its mechanism. Results show that (1) the convective heat transferred eastward alongthe equator serves as the source of the intraseasonal oxillation both in the tropical and the extratropical atmos--phere; (2) the velocity-potential wave of a zonal structure of wavenumber 1 gives rise to oxillation in divergentand convergent wind fields of a dipole-form as seen from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the western Pacificduring its eastward propagation, thus indicating the oscillation in the dipole-form heat soure:e/sink pattertl; (3)the tropical heat-source oscillation is responsible for the variation in phase and intensity of the extratropicalstationary wave train, and the interaction between the oscillating low-frequency inertial gravity and stationaryRossby modes that are probably mechanisms for the oscillations ip the middle-high latitudes.  相似文献   

1993年7—9月的全球地震动态     

吴佳翼 《国际地震动态》1994,(2):7-10

１９９３年第三季度，全球地震活动水平为中等偏高，明显高于上半年平均水平。日本北海道西南近海发生７．６级浅源地震，但不属于日本海沟地震。埃及西奈半岛发生５．７级地震，为今年亚欧带西段之最大地震。马里亚纳群岛发生８．１级中深震，使西北太平洋地区地震水平达到全球第一。兴都库什地区接连发生三次较大中深震，可能对我国西部地区地震活动有影响。墨西哥恰帕斯州近海发生７．３级地震，美洲带新的地震活动轮回正式开始。印度南部发生６．３级中强震，属于板内地震。  相似文献   

Field measurements of NO and NO2 emissions from fertilized and unfertilized soils   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

F. Slemr  W. Seiler 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1984,2(1):1-24

Field measurements of NO and NO₂ emissions from soils have been performed in Finthen near Mainz (F.R.G.) and in Utrera near Seville (Spain). The applied method employed a flow box coupled with a chemiluminescent NO _x detector allowing the determination of minimum flux rates of 2 g N m^-2 h^-1 for NO and 3 g m^-2 h^-1 for NO₂.The NO and NO₂ flux rates were found to be strongly dependent on soil surface temperatures and showed strong daily variations with maximum values during the early afternoon and minimum values during the early morning. Between the daily variation patterns of NO and NO₂, there was a time lag of about 2 h which seem to be due to the different physico-chemical properties of NO and NO₂. The apparent activation energy of NO emission calculated from the Arrhenius equation ranged between 44 and 103 kJ per mole. The NO and NO₂ emission rates were positively correlated with soil moisture in the upper soil layer.The measurements carried out in August in Finthen clearly indicate the establishment of NO and NO₂ equilibrium mixing ratios which appeared to be on the order of 20 ppbv for NO and 10 ppbv for NO₂. The soil acted as a net sink for ambient air NO and NO₂ mixing ratios higher than the equilibrium values and a net source for NO and NO₂ mixing ratios lower than the equilibrium values. This behaviour as well as the observation of equilibrium mixing ratios clearly indicate that NO and NO₂ are formed and destroyed concurrently in the soil.Average flux rates measured on bare unfertilized soils were about 10 g N m^-2 h^-1 for NO₂ and 8 g N m^-2 h^-1 for NO. The NO and NO₂ flux rates were significantly reduced on plant covered soil plots. In some cases, the flux rates of both gases became negative indicating that the vegetation may act as a sink for atmospheric NO and NO₂.Application of mineral fertilizers increased the NO and NO₂ emission rates. Highest emission rates were observed for urea followed by NH₄Cl, NH₄NO₃ and NaNO₃. The fertilizer loss rates ranged from 0.1% for NaNO₃ to 5.4% for urea. Vegetation cover substantially reduced the fertilizer loss rate.The total NO _x emission from soil is estimated to be 11 Tg N yr^-1. This figure is an upper limit and includes the emission of 7 Tg N yr^-1 from natural unfertilized soils, 2 Tg N yr^-1 from fertilized soils as well as 2 Tg N yr^-1 from animal excreta. Despite its speculative character, this estimation indicates that NO _x emission by soil is important for tropospheric chemistry especially in remote areas where the NO _x production by other sources is comparatively small.  相似文献