Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

蓝永超  丁永建  王书功  康尔泗  宋克超 《中国沙漠》2004,24(3):313-316

Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法，将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报，取得了较为理想的成果。预测试验的结果表明，该预测模型有较高计算精度，尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测；对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测，在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后，亦可获到较为理想的预测结果。可以认为，该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求，Local Modeling方法的应用，将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径。  相似文献   

预应力锚索技术在大型水库除险加固工程中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

呼咏  孙志峰  田野 《探矿工程》2004,31(9):46-47,50

介绍了无粘结预应力锚固技术在吉林省二龙山水库除险加固工程中的应用。对造孔、编索、下索、张拉等工艺进行了详细介绍。  相似文献   

The earthquake and tsunami of 1865 November 17: evidence for far-field tsunami hazard from Tonga   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Emile A. Okal  José Borrero  Costas E. Synolakis 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(1):164-174

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Search for direct empirical spatial correlation signatures of the critical triggering earthquake model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

G. Ouillon  D. Sornette 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(3):1233-1246

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2004年陕西春季沙尘天气环流特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

侯明全  王旭仙 《山西气象》2005,(2):1-4

应用我们已经建立的《阳泉市短期冰雹预报系统》分析预报阳泉市2004年6月份出现的连续冰雹天气,特别是该系统中的指标叠加方法,效果较好。  相似文献   

2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析          下载免费PDF全文

高菊霞  李建芳 《山西气象》2005,(2):5-8

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。  相似文献   

Structural and geotechnical impacts of surface rupture on highway structures during recent earthquakes in Turkey   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

A. Pamuk  E. Kalkan  H.I. Ling 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(7-10):581-589

The most significant damage on highway bridges during the recent earthquakes in Turkey (Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes) and Taiwan (Chi–Chi earthquake) was the result of fault ruptures traversing transportation infrastructure. This phenomenon and its consequences accentuate the need to examine surface rupture hazards and to identify those areas at risk. This understanding can help to develop remedial measures for both structural and geotechnical engineering. For that purpose, damage to highway bridges during the recent events was reviewed. The total collapse of the highway overpass in Arifiye, during the Kocaeli earthquake, was investigated. The major problems under consideration (in Arifiye) were: (i) dislodging of the bridge spans, and consequently, the total separation of the reinforced concrete girders from the piers; and (ii) the stability of a mechanically stabilized earth wall (MSEW) system under extreme loading conditions. The results of the structural and geotechnical investigations presented herein can be taken in consideration to improve transportation infrastructure against surface rupture hazards.  相似文献   

Flood hazards in the upper and middle Odra River basin – A short review over the last century     

Alfred Dubicki  Jzefa Malinowska-Ma&#x;ek  Kinga Stro&#x;ska 《Limnologica》2005,35(3):123-131

During the 20th century many floods of different intensity and extent have occurred on the Odra River and its tributaries. On the basis of long-term water level observations five major floods, that affected the entire upper and middle Odra River basin, were chosen for further analysis: June 1902, July 1903, August 1977, August 1985 and July 1997. However, hazardous floods were not only those that covered the whole upper and middle Odra River basin, so several local floods were also studied. Detailed historical analysis was made of meteorological conditions, with special emphasis on precipitation patterns and amounts. Then, on the basis of flood peak time occurrence, the stages of flood wave formation were formulated. The natural flood wave of the Odra River is often modified by hydro-technical infrastructure, the development and improvement of which is briefly described in this paper. In conclusion, a comparison of flood wave characteristics such as rising time, falling time, duration, peak flow and volume is presented.  相似文献   

Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study     

CHEN Ming  FENG Liu  Jacques Yvon 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(Z2)

Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.  相似文献   

A large landslide on the urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

John Douglass  Ronald I. Dorn  Brian Gootee 《Geomorphology》2005,65(3-4):321-336

A granitic rock avalanche, one of the largest Quaternary landslides in Arizona outside the Grand Canyon with a volume of approximately 5.25 M m³ and a width a little under 0.5 km, ran 1 km from the eastern McDowell Mountains. With lateral levees and pressure ridges, the rock avalanche deposit displays many features found on classic sturzstroms. Failure occurred along a major joint plane paralleling the slope with a dip of 44°, when a major base level lowering event in the Salt River system would have undermined the base of the failed slope, and probably during a period of more moisture than normally available in the present-day arid climate. Failure at the subsurface weathering front highlights the importance of the dramatic permeability change between grussified regolith and relatively fresh bedrock. Rock varnish microlaminations (VMLs) dating, in concert with other geomorphic evidence, suggests that the rock avalanche deposit is slightly older than 500 ka. The rock vanish results also have important implications for sampling strategies designed to use cosmogenic nuclide to date Quaternary landslide deposits. Discovery of a large landslide in close proximity to the extending urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix argues for a more careful analysis of landslide hazards in the region, especially where rapid development excavates bedrock at the base of steep mountain slopes and where the subsurface weathering front is near the surface.  相似文献