全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

殷跃平  张颖  康宏达  费宇明 《第四纪研究》1996,16(2):123-130

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。  相似文献   

区域地质灾害趋势预测理论与方法   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

殷跃平  李媛 《工程地质学报》1996,4(4):75-79

区域地质灾害趋势预测对于国家土地资源的合理开发利用和制定减灾防治对策具有重要意义。本文总结了区域地质灾害三个层次评估的理论与方法, 即基于自然属性的地质灾害研究、基于风险分析的地质灾害研究和基于信息-决策支持系统的地质灾害研究。作者认为, 运用GIS技术, 将这三层次的评价方法结合起来, 是进行区域地质灾害趋势预测的有效途径。本文最后介绍了1∶600万全国地质灾害趋势预测图编制的思路与成果。  相似文献   

王家山煤矿地裂缝的形成及其灾害     

杨建成 《甘肃地质》1996,5(2):91-95

王家山煤矿断层密集，地裂缝发育，采空塌陷严重，这三者构成严重的地质灾害链。地裂缝的形成和发展，使矿区人民的生命财产遭受了惨重的损失。从工程地质及地质灾害的角度进行分析，认为新构造运动是动态的地质背景，黄土的特殊物理力学性质是静态的地质基础，人为的采空塌陷是地裂缝群产生的主要原因  相似文献   

Preliminary seismic hazard maps of Slovenia     

J. K. Lapajne  B. SŠket Motnikar  P. Zupancčicč 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):155-164

The preparation of the preliminary seismic hazard maps of the territory of Slovenia has been based on an expansion of the basic approach laid out by Cornell in 1968. Three seismic source models were prepared. Two of them are based mainly on the earthquake catalogue using the Poissonian probability model. A map of seismic energy release and a map of earthquake epicenter density are used to delineate seismic sources in these models. The geometry of the third model which is based on a rough estimate of seismotectonic setting is taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a nuclear power plant in Slovenia. Published ground motion attenuation models based on strong motion records of recent strong earthquakes in Italy are used. Test maps for variable and uniform b-values are presented. The computer program, Seisrisk III, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used.  相似文献   

Geostatistical regionalization of glacial aquitard thickness in northwestern Germany, based on fuzzy kriging   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. A. Piotrowski  F. Bartels  A. Salski  G. Schmidt 《Mathematical Geology》1996,28(4):437-452

In many instances hydrogeological parameters obtained by conventional methods for selected localities within an aquifer or an aquitard are not sufficient for adequate regionalization at the scale of the entire layer. Here, we demonstrate an application of the fuzzy kriging method in regionalization of hydrogeological data, in which the set of conventional, crisp values is supplemented by imprecise information subjectively estimated by an expert. It is believed that such an approach eventually may reflect the real-world conditions more closely than a traditional crisp-value approach, because the former does not impose exactness artificially on phenomena which are diffuse by their nature. Spatial interpolation was done for the thickness of one of the major aquitards (till and glaciolacustrine clay) in northwestern Germany. The dataset consists of 329 crisp values from boreholes supplemented by 172 imprecise values defined as fuzzy numbers. It is demonstrated that the reliability of regionalization was higher, compared to regionalization performed with the crisp dataset only. Fuzzy kriging was performed with FUZZEKS (Fuzzy Evaluation and Kriging System) developed at the Ecosystem Research Center at the University of Kiel.  相似文献   

Hazard mapping based on macroseismic data considering the influence of geological conditions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. L. Sousa  C. S. Oliveira 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):207-225

The object of this study is to consider directly the influence of regional geological conditions on the assessment of seismic hazard. It is assumed that macroseismic data at individual locations contain, in an average way, the influence of geological conditions.A Data Base referring to 199 historical (5) and instrumental (194, in the 1947–1993 period) events with macroseismic information in 1195 locations of Portugal was built. For any given seismic event, whenever macroseismic information was available at a location (town, village, etc.), an EMS-92 intensity value was estimated. To each one of those locations a geological unit, representing the most common type of soil, was assigned, based on the Geological Portuguese Map at a scale 1:500 000; the geological units were grouped into three categories: soft, intermediate and hard soils.The Data Base was used to determine the attenuation laws in terms of macroseismic intensity for the three different geological site conditions, using multiple linear regression analysis. The reasonability of the laws was tested by (i) checking residual distributions and (ii) comparing the map of isoseismals of important earthquakes with the isoseismals generated by the attenuation curves derived for each one of the three different soil classes, taking into consideration the soil class of each site. The main results of attenuation modeling are: high dispersion on macroseismic intensity data; all the models predict intensity values, for short hypocentral distances, lower than the ones observed; and for some important analyzed earthquakes and for the observed range of distances, the models confirm the expectancy that macroseismic intensity increases from hard to soft soil.The approach to obtain the hazard assessment at each location consisted in the use of the attenuation law specifically derived for the class of soil of that particular location. This method, which considers the influence of the regional geology, was illustrated with the mapping of hazard for the country for several return periods. Comparison with previous maps not taking into consideration the regional geological conditions emphasizes the importance of this new parameter. It can be concluded that (i) soil segmentation is clearly the cause for hazard increase in the region to the north of Lisbon, especially at sites with soft and intermediate soils as the ones in lower Tagus valley; the maximum increase on hazard is, in any case, less than one degree; (ii) when geological conditions are disregarded in the attenuation regression analysis, hazard pattern is similar to the one obtained for the case of hard soil everywhere.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard assessment in the Ionian Islands based on observed macroseismic intensities     

Joanna E. Papoulia  Dario Slejko 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):179-187

Catalogues of actual observed intensities are constructed for three towns in the Ionian Islands. They are used for seismic hazard assessment and the results are compared with those obtained by standard approaches; that is, by statistics applied to the data computed from epicentral parameters. The results show that seismic hazard is better assessed using observed rather than computed data, but preparation of the local catalogue presents non-trivial difficulties.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Studies in the U.K.: Source Specification Problems of Intraplate Seismicity     

R. M. W. Musson 《Natural Hazards》1997,15(2-3):105-119

Although the U.K. is in an area of only low to moderate seismicity, the seismic hazard is sufficient to pose a threat to sensitive structures such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities. In quantifying the level of hazard by conventional probabilistic methodology, however, some problems arise in attempting to interpret earthquake data in terms of geological structure and faults. In the U.K., not only is it impossible to identify any demonstrably active faults, but also it is extremely difficult to discern any relationship between the pattern of seismicity and local or regional geological structure.This study discusses the use of two zonation approaches which complement each other in such a way that the general character and trend of seismicity is preserved. In one approach, the zonation is informed by the structural geology, where possible; geological zonation is avoided if it produces sources with heterogeneous seismicity. In the other approach, the record of past earthquakes is divided up into very small zones around individual epicentres or groups of epicentres, the size of each zone usually being proportional to the uncertainty in the epicentral determination of the appropriate event. This zonation preserves an observed tendency of some British earthquakes to repeat themselves. It is suggested that, in intraplate areas such as the U.K., it is often inappropriate to attempt to model individual fault sources. No faults in the U.K. are provably active. Because an earthquake of moderate size can occur on a very short fault segment, it is impractical to restrict fault modelling to major features. Even the two largest U.K. faults, suspected to be active, pose problems in attributing historical seismicity to them as distinct features.  相似文献   

Regionalization of unit hydrograph parameters: 1. Comparison of regression analysis techniques     

Y. -K. Tung  K. -C. Yeh  J. -C. Yang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(2):145-171

Hydrologic regionalization is a useful tool that allows for the transfer of hydrological information from gaged sites to ungaged sites. This study developed regional regression equations that relate the two parameters in Nash's IUH model to the basin characteristics for 42 major watersheds in Taiwan. In the process of developing the regional equations, different regression procedures including the conventional univariate regression, multivariate regression, and seemingly unrelated regression were used. Multivariate regression and seeming unrelated regression were applied because there exists a rather strong correlation between the Nash's IUH parameters. Furthermore, a validation study was conducted to examine the predictability of regional equations derived by different regression procedures. The study indicates that hydrologic regionalization involving several dependent variables should consider their correlations in the process of establishing the regional equations. The consideration of such correlation will enhance the predictability of resulting regional equations as compared with the ones from the conventional univariate regression procedure.  相似文献   

黄土的物理力学指标与黄土易损性分析研究   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

段汝文  王峻  李兰 《地震工程学报》1997,19(3):81-85

作者多年来在黄土地区进行了考察和勘探并采集了各类黄土样品，在室内外进行了黄土的物理力学性质的试验研究，取得了大量的关于黄土特性的资料．根据这些研究结果，探讨了黄土的物理力学指标与黄土易损性的关系及其区域分布规律，从而研究它与黄土地区的地质灾害和震害的关系．  相似文献