Potential influence of climate change on ecosystems within the Boreal Plains of Alberta          下载免费PDF全文

Craig Thompson  Carl A. Mendoza  Kevin J. Devito 《水文研究》2017,31(11):2110-2124

Ecosystems within the subhumid Boreal Plains of Northern Alberta host ecologically and commercially significant habitat and natural resources. However, these ecosystems exist under a delicate hydrologic balance that may be upset as the climate warms by 2 to 5 °C over the next century. In this study, numerical simulations were used to predict climate change impacts at a catchment composed of a mosaic of Boreal Plains ecosystems including a small pond, peatlands with sparse black spruce, and hillslopes with predominantly aspen forests. Simulations were conducted with a fully integrated groundwater–surface water code using a 2‐D model previously calibrated to a decade of hydrologic data that included a range in climatic conditions. Projections from 13 climate change scenarios were simulated from 2011 to 2090 and compared to a base case scenario that assumed no climate change. Results indicate peatland water levels may decline by up to 1 m; however, sensitivity simulations indicate that the decline in water levels may be moderated by several feedback mechanisms that restrict evaporative losses and moderate water level changes. In contrast, higher evapotranspiration losses from the aspen hillslopes are predicted to result in near‐surface soils becoming increasingly drier. Thus, the aspen may frequently be water stressed and increasingly susceptible to secondary maladies such as pests and disease. Reduced pond water levels are also predicted with the development of frequent ephemeral conditions in warmer and drier scenarios. Concurrent decreases in stream flow may further impact downstream ecosystems. Further research into the regional health and sustainability of Boreal Plains ecosystems is warranted and could benefit from the development of improved numerical tools capable of extending the processes considered.  相似文献   

Assessing Collaborative Governance Outcomes and Indicators across Spatial and Temporal Scales: Stewardship Contract Implementation by the United States Forest Service     

Katherine M. Mattor  Antony S. Cheng  Brian Kittler  Maureen McDonough 《社会与自然资源》2020,33(4):484-503

Abstract

Scholarship on collaboration in natural resource management is restricted by a lack of large-N assessments and mixed methods approach to examine relationships between collaborative structures and processes, and management actions and outcomes. This paper examines the relationship between perceived levels of collaboration, collaborative process indicators, and benefits of USDA Forest Service stewardship contracts at a broad spatial and temporal scale using mixed methodology. This study found higher levels of collaboration were strongly associated with jointly initiated processes that included a breadth of interests and utilized a broad range of outreach mechanisms and opportunities for engagement. Highly collaborative processes were closely linked with attaining project objectives and social and economic benefits. Findings contribute to defining collaboration by uncovering the relationship between perceived levels of collaboration, the role of process characteristics, and perceived benefits of collaborative stewardship contracting processes through a large-N dataset (n?=?1,064) and case study (n?=?61) findings.  相似文献   

基于随机森林的国产小卫星遥感影像分类研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

刘毅  杜培军  郑辉  夏俊士  柳思聪 《测绘科学》2012,(4):194-196

近年来随着小卫星数量与传感器类型的快速增加,急需研究和发展快速可靠的小卫星遥感影像分类方法。针对分类方法各具局限性、具体应用中最优分类器选取困难等问题,本文基于多分类器集成学习的思路,引入随机森林(Random Forests)方法用于小卫星遥感影像分类。采用灾害监测预报小卫星(HJ-1)、北京1号小卫星(BJ-1)两种国产小卫星多光谱遥感影像进行试验,并与传统分类方法进行比较,结果表明,随机森林比最大似然分类器(MLC)、支持向量机分类器(SVM)等具有更好的稳定性、更高的分类精度和更快的运算速度,具有很好的适用性。  相似文献   

人促天然更新米槠次生林与杉木人工林乔木层碳贮量分配特征比较     

李丽红 《亚热带资源与环境学报》2012,7(2)

以杉木人工林为对照,分析三明陈大人工促进天然更新形成的米槠次生林乔木层碳贮量及其随树种、径阶、高阶的分配特点．结果表明：米槠次生林乔木层物种丰富度高于杉木林,人促天然更新有利于保持乔木层的树种多样性．米槠次生林乔木层碳贮量为178．67t·hm^-2,高于杉木人工林（111．24t·hm^-2）．米槠次生林和杉木人工林均以单优树种碳贮量占绝对优势,但米槠次生林中大个体林木（大径阶、大高阶）的碳贮量远大于杉木人工林．与杉木人工林相比,米槠次生林呈现出异龄的林分结构,这可能是其能够保持高碳吸存和高树种丰富度的重要原因．  相似文献   

西藏近35年地表湿润指数变化特征及其影响因素   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

杜军  李春  拉巴  罗布次仁  廖健 《气象学报》2009,67(1):158-164

利用1971-2005年西藏25个气象站月平均最高气温、最低气温、风速、相对湿度、日照时数、降水量等资料,应用Penman-Monteith模犁计算了最大潜在蒸散、地表湿润指数,分析了其空间分布、年际变化特征及季节差异,并讨论了影响地表湿润指数变化的气象因子.研究表明:近35年,西藏年降水量表现为显著的增加趋势,增幅为15.0 mm/(10 a);年最大潜在蒸散呈不同程度的减小趋势,为-4.6--71.6 mm/(10 a).阿里地区西南部、聂拉木年地表湿润指数为不显著的减小趋势,其他各地均呈增大趋势,增幅为0.02-0.09.就西藏平均而言,年地表湿润指数以0.04/10 a的速率显著增大,尤其足近25年增幅更为明显.各季节地表湿润指数也表现为增大趋势,以夏季增幅最明显.20世纪70年代剑80年代主要表现为以低温低湿为主的年际变化特征,进入90年代后,气温持续升高,地表湿润指数明显增加,呈现山暖湿型的气候特征.降水量和相对湿度的明显增加,以及平均气温日较差的显著减小是地表湿润指数显著增加的主要原因,平均风速和日照时数的明显减少,在湿润指数增加趋势中也起着重要作用.  相似文献   

一次罕见的辐射-平流雾研究(I)——生消物理过程分析   总被引：8，自引：7，他引：1  

严文莲  濮梅娟  王巍巍  杨军  刘端阳 《气象科学》2009,29(1):9-16

2006年12月份在南京市郊进行了雾的综合外场观测.本文通过对12月24-27日持续4 d的大雾过程进行分析,揭示了南京市郊雾生消过程中宏观物理演变特征,并在此基础上分析了产生这些特征的原因.这次大雾为辐射平流雾,其边界层温、湿结构特征与以往研究的辐射雾存在明显的不同;大雾维持时间久,尤其是强浓雾天气(能见度<50 m)持续时间长达约37 h;逆温深厚,雾层厚,雾顶高,多在450 m以上.研究表明:逆温层深厚、大气层结稳定、风向风速适宜,暖湿气流的不断补充,是这次大雾长时间稳定维持且雾顶高的主要原因.  相似文献   

东亚季风湿润区水分收支的气候特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

廖荣伟  赵平 《应用气象学报》2010,21(6):649-658

采用1958-2007年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,分别从水汽通量、水汽通量散度以及区域内降水量与蒸发量差计算东亚季风湿润区的水分收支,分析其差异特征,结果表明:用不同方法计算的水分收支距平年际变化的相关系数分别为0.91,0.71和0.81,误差ε百分率分别为17.4%,44.1%和44%,其中利用水汽通量和散度计算得到的季风湿润区水分收支结果很接近。总体上看,整个区域全年表现为水分收入,春季和夏季的水分收入贡献最大,秋季和冬季贡献较小。在水汽经向输送中,南边界为主要的水汽输入区。从水汽输送计算的水分收支垂直分布来看,多年平均气候态下整个区域除850 hPa存在水分支出外,其余各层均为水分收入,3种方法计算的水分收支在4个季节的年际变化明显。  相似文献   

Millennial‐scale fire and vegetation history from a mesic hardwood forest of southeastern Wisconsin,USA     

Colin J. Long  Mitchell J. Power  Breanne Mcdonald 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(3):318-325

High‐resolution charcoal analysis of lake sediment cores was used to reconstruct the fire history from two sites in a mesic hardwood forest of south‐eastern Wisconsin located in the Kettle Moraine State Forest. Pollen data from the region indicate that the sites, which lie within 5 km of each other, have had a consistent presence of mesic hardwood forest for the last 6500 years. A pollen record from one of the sites confirmed the regional vegetation history and the charcoal analysis indicated that fire frequency at each site was temporally linked to regional drought. Periods of high fire occurrence occurred in connection with a region‐wide drought 4200 years ago and, over the last 2000 years, shorter‐scale regional droughts were centred at 1800, 1650, 1100, 1000, 800, 700 and 600 cal a BP. The fire histories indicate that the last 1000 years have had lower fire frequencies than the previous 6500 years and suggest that the mesic hardwood forests may be resilient to increases in fire that may result from future climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hortonian overland flow from Japanese forest plantations—an aberration,the real thing,or something in between?     

Roy C. Sidle  Tomonori Hirano  Takashi Gomi  Tomomi Terajima 《水文研究》2007,21(23):3237-3247

There is a growing opinion that poorly managed plantation forests in Japan are contributing to increased storm runoff and erosion. Here we present evidence to the contrary from runoff plots at two scales (hillslope and 0·5 × 2 m plots) for several forest conditions in the Mie and Nariki catchments. Runoff coefficients from small plots in untended hinoki forests were variable but typically higher than from better managed or deciduous forests during small storms at Nariki; at Mie, runoff during small events was highly variable from all small plots but runoff coefficients were similar for hinoki plots with and without understory vegetation, while the deciduous plot had lower runoff coefficients. Storm runoff was less at the hillslope scale than the plot scale in Mie; these results were more evident at sites with better ground cover. During the largest storms at both sites, differences in runoff due to forest condition were not evident regardless of scale. Dynamic soil moisture tension measurements at Nariki indicated that during a large storm, flow in the upper organic‐rich and root‐permeated soil horizons was 3·2 times higher than measured overland runoff from a small hinoki plot with poor ground cover and 8·3 times higher than runoff from a deciduous forest plot. On the basis of field observations during storms, at least a portion of the monitored ‘Hortonian overland flow’ was actually occurring in this near‐surface ‘biomat’. Therefore our field measurements in both small and large plots potentially included biomat flow in addition to short‐lived Hortonian runoff. Because overland flow decreased with increasing scale, rill erosion did not occur on hillslopes. Additionally, runoff coefficients were not significantly different among cover conditions during large storms; thus, the ‘degraded’ forest conditions appear not to greatly enhance peak flows or erosion potential at larger scales, especially when biomat flow is significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

干旱区与湿润区湖泊降水效应之比较   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王晓峰 《干旱区地理》1995,18(4):88-93

本文在引证并对比分析前人研究成果的基础上认为：无论湖泊位于何处，至少从理论上来说，湖泊的降水效应是普遍存在的。关于博期腾湖的实际观测资料表明，，干旱区湖泊的降水效应可能不同于湿润区湖泊，湿润区湖泊通常湖面降水少于陆面。干旱区湖泊则可能出现相反的情况，从理论上来说，不论干旱区湖泊还是湿润区湖泊都存在着出现与上述结论相反的现象的可能性。  相似文献