Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain     

V. A. Bell  H. N. Davies  A. L. Kay  T. J. Marsh  A. Brookshaw  A. Jenkins 《水文研究》2013,27(20):3003-3012

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

三峡地区水资源评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵海瑞  储开凤 《水文》1995,(3):12-19

在大量水文资料统计分析的基础上，对三峡地区主要水文要素的时空分布及变化特征、分区水资源的评价和开发利用条件进行了系统分析，可为三峡工程建设提供该地区社会经济发展的科学依据和基本的水文水资源数据。  相似文献   

水文时间系列周期分析方法探讨   总被引：15，自引：2，他引：15  

易淑珍  王钊 《水文》2005,25(4):26-29

以分析广东省降水周期变化规律为例，探讨了最大熵谱方法在提取水文时间系列的主次周期上以及小波变换方法在分析水文时间系列的多时间尺度演变规律上的应用。由计算结果分析得到广东省降水过程主要存在的周期特性和旱涝变化趋势，为广东省降水趋势预测提供了重要信息。  相似文献   

国际河流水文站网布局规划方法研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

何惠  蔡建元 《水文》2002,22(5):18-20

随着近年来我国与周边国家在国际河流水资源利用与保护方面的合作工作的不断加强，以及边疆地区经济建设步伐的加快，国际河流水文资料收集，分析等基础工作显得越来越重要。为此，针对国际河流地区水文站点稀少，设施设备落后，监测能力薄弱的现实情况，水利部水文局组织编制了国际河流水文站网建设总体规划。简要介绍了该规划中有关国际河流的调查情况与规划河流的选择方法，说明了划定规划区范围的一般性原则和特殊性原则，提出了水文站网布局规划的思路，目标，原则与方法等。  相似文献   

西北干旱区SG-SPAC系统水力模型的建立   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8  

武强  张志忠  董东林 《水文地质工程地质》2002,29(4):62-64,75

文章论述了西北干旱区水资源的特点，利用现代农田水分研究方法研究了干旱区地表水、地下水、土壤、植物、大气连续体（SG－SPAC）系统的水分转化规律，建立了地表水、地下水和土壤水之间的水力耦合模型，为干旱区的水资源规划、开发和生态环境保护奠定了科学的基础。  相似文献   

数字高程模型在流域水文模型应用中的若干问题   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

孔凡哲  芮孝芳 《水文》2002,22(5):1-4

数字高程模型(DEM)在流域水文模型中得到了广泛应用,主要是因为DEM能够自动提取流域水文模型所需要的确定流域排水结构的水文信息。回顾并讨论了DEM在流域水文模型应用中的几个问题,主要包括河网自动提取的方法、DEM中排水方向的确定以及封闭洼地的处理,同时还包括在流域水文模型中应用时DEM的结构类型及尺度问题。由于由DEM生成的模拟河网与流域实际河网间存在一定的差别,最后还讨论了如何对模拟河网进行矫正的问题。  相似文献   

黄河流域水循环研究的进展和展望   总被引：7，自引：7，他引：7  

刘苏峡  张士锋  刘昌明 《地理研究》2001,20(3):257-265

总结了黄河流域水循环研究的进展,指出缺乏立足于水循环整体的机理过程的探讨及缺乏较成熟的流域水文模型是已有研究的不足。为能更好地模拟水文过程对各种作用力的响应,今后研究的方向将是建立既考虑垂向水分和能量传输(如降水,蒸发,感热),又考虑水平向的地表水分运动(汇流)和地下水基流过程的黄河流域的分布式水文模型。模型将结合遥感信息与地面资料,建立与区域大气环流模式(GCM)的接口,辅之以野外生态试验小区、径流试验场和室内试验的资料,以深入探索黄河流域水循环动力学机制  相似文献   

流域水文模型计算域离散方法   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

万洪涛  周成虎  万庆 《地理科学进展》2001,20(4):347-354

常用的概念性水文模型 ,能够很好地模拟水文时间变化过程 ,但没有考虑水文变量和水文参数的空间变化与空间不均匀性。随着空间数据的获取手段的增多以及空间离散技术的发展 ,考虑水文参数和水文变量空间变化的分布式水文模型得到了极大的发展。本文详细介绍了分布式流域水文模型中用到的几种不同计算域离散方法 ,并讨论了河道汇流模型中常用到的有结构网格和无结构离散网格。地理信息系统技术对计算域离散有辅助作用 ,其有利于无结构离散网格的自动生成和交互修改 ,并可结合遥感技术 ,使水文模型能获取精确的空间分布的水文参数和水文变量。  相似文献   

水库水文情势与浮游植物群落结构   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18       下载免费PDF全文

邬红娟  郭生练 《水科学进展》2001,12(1):51-55

综述和讨论了当前水库水文情势对浮游植物群落的影响研究,主要是水文情势对浮游植物数量、种类组成、物种多样性和群落的空间格局包括垂直和水平分布以及群落演替的影响.  相似文献   

Estimating groundwater recharge rates in the southeastern Holstein region, northern Germany     

Roland Otto 《Hydrogeology Journal》2001,9(5):498-511

In the southeastern Holstein region, located to the east of the metropolitan zone of Hamburg, northern Germany, a groundwater investigation program was conducted from 1984 to 2000 by the State Agency for Nature and Environment (Landesamt für Natur und Umwelt, LANU) of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, with the aim of providing long-term, ecologically acceptable groundwater management plans for the region. The focal point of the investigation comprised the determination of groundwater recharge rates. The investigation method was based on the transfer of available lysimeter results from other regions to comparable regions within the area studied. With the help of lysimeter equations, potential amounts of percolation water were calculated. The groundwater recharge rate was then determined after subtraction of the surface runoff which was calculated for the entire area. All computations were performed with a spreadsheet program. Groundwater recharge rates were calculated for two areas. One consisted of roughly determining groundwater recharge rates for the total region (1,392 km²) of southeastern Holstein. The overall goal of these investigations was to identify potential areas of water exploitation. Areas in which groundwater recharge rates are high and groundwater outflow is low are particularly suited to water exploitation, since inflow rates into deeper aquifers are high. These areas are located on the flanks of the Elbe and Stecknitz River valleys. Subsurface groundwater runoff to these lowlands would be reduced through groundwater withdrawal. However, the resulting decline in shallow groundwater tables would be so small that it would have no detrimental ecological effects. Groundwater recharge rates were also calculated for a 110-km² area in the outskirts of Hamburg (Grosshansdorf model area) which is intensively developed for water supply. These investigations showed that the amount of groundwater recharge is already being withdrawn to a large extent. Approximately 65% of the recharge rate is currently withdrawn by the waterworks in this area, thus making further increases in exploitation rates unjustifiable from an ecological point of view. Electronic Publication  相似文献