Mechanistic interpretation of alpine glacierized environments: Part 1. Model formulation and related dynamical properties     

P. Perona  P. Burlando 《Advances in water resources》2008

Understanding the long-term seasonal dynamics of alpine glacierized basins is essential to evaluating their relation to climatic forcing. We focus on process knowledge by following a minimalist approach, and propose a spatially lumped nonlinear differential model (MIAGE) to describe the link between the volume V of water that is stored on the basin and the river runoff Q at the seasonal scale. We formulate the model structure by mathematically describing the link relating precipitation P, temperature T, river runoff Q and stored volumes V. Beside reproducing some typical features of the catchment hydrology of glacierized basins, MIAGE offers an explanation of their seasonal hydroclimatic behaviour and of the origin of their dissipative properties from a dynamical system perspective. By studying the model nonlinear properties, characteristics, and performances, we show that climatic change has both direct and feedback effects on such basins. Eventually a synchronization of the runoffs with either the precipitation trend or the temperature trend may occur depending on the storage conditions. This model is subsequently used in a companion paper in order to investigate the potential impact of climatic change scenarios on basins of the Italian and Swiss Alps [Mechanistic interpretation of alpine glacierized environments: Part 2. Hydrologic interpretation and model parameters identification on case study, this issue].  相似文献   

Data assimilation methods in the Earth sciences     

Rolf H. Reichle 《Advances in water resources》2008

Although remote sensing data are often plentiful, they do not usually satisfy the users’ needs directly. Data assimilation is required to extract information about geophysical fields of interest from the remote sensing observations and to make the data more accessible to users. Remote sensing may provide, for example, measurements of surface soil moisture, snow water equivalent, snow cover, or land surface (skin) temperature. Data assimilation can then be used to estimate variables that are not directly observed from space but are needed for applications, for instance root zone soil moisture or land surface fluxes. The paper provides a brief introduction to modern data assimilation methods in the Earth sciences, their applications, and pertinent research questions. Our general overview is readily accessible to hydrologic remote sensing scientists. Within the general context of Earth science data assimilation, we point to examples of the assimilation of remotely sensed observations in land surface hydrology.  相似文献   

Diurnal fluctuations in glacier ice deformation: Haut Glacier d'Arolla,Switzerland     

Douglas Mair  Bryn Hubbard  Peter Nienow  Ian Willis  Urs H. Fischer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(8):1272-1284

Measurements of surface velocity, ice deformation (at 42 and 89% ice depth) and proglacial stream discharge were made at Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, to determine diurnal patterns of variation in each. Data are analysed in order to understand better the relationship between hydraulically induced basal motion and glacier ice deformation over short timescales. The data suggest that hydraulically induced localized basal ‘slippery’ spots are created over diurnal cycles, causing enhanced basal motion and spatially variable glacier speed‐up. Our data indicate that daily glacier speed‐up is associated with reduced internal deformation over areas previously identified as slippery spots and increased deformation in areas located adjacent to or down‐glacier from slippery spots. We interpret this pattern in terms of a transfer of mechanical support for basal shear stress away from slippery spots to adjacent sticky areas, where the resulting stronger ice–bed coupling causes increased ice deformation near the bed. These patterns indicate that basal ice is subjected to stress regimes that are variable at a high spatial and temporal resolution. Such variations may be central to the creation of anomalous vertical velocity profiles measured above and down‐glacier of basal slippery zones, which have shown evidence for ‘plug flow’ and extrusion flow over annual timescales. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Optical remote mapping of rivers at sub‐meter resolutions and watershed extents     

W. Andrew Marcus  Mark A. Fonstad 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(1):4-24

At watershed extents, our understanding of river form, process and function is largely based on locally intensive mapping of river reaches, or on spatially extensive but low density data scattered throughout a watershed (e.g. cross sections). The net effect has been to characterize streams as discontinuous systems. Recent advances in optical remote sensing of rivers indicate that it should now be possible to generate accurate and continuous maps of in‐stream habitats, depths, algae, wood, stream power and other features at sub‐meter resolutions across entire watersheds so long as the water is clear and the aerial view is unobstructed. Such maps would transform river science and management by providing improved data, better models and explanation, and enhanced applications. Obstacles to achieving this vision include variations in optics associated with shadows, water clarity, variable substrates and target–sun angle geometry. Logistical obstacles are primarily due to the reliance of existing ground validation procedures on time‐of‐flight field measurements, which are impossible to accomplish at watershed extents, particularly in large and difficult to access river basins. Philosophical issues must also be addressed that relate to the expectations around accuracy assessment, the need for and utility of physically based models to evaluate remote sensing results and the ethics of revealing information about river resources at fine spatial resolutions. Despite these obstacles and issues, catchment extent remote river mapping is now feasible, as is demonstrated by a proof‐of‐concept example for the Nueces River, Texas, and examples of how different image types (radar, lidar, thermal) could be merged with optical imagery. The greatest obstacle to development and implementation of more remote sensing, catchment scale ‘river observatories’ is the absence of broadly based funding initiatives to support collaborative research by multiple investigators in different river settings. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

水文系统模拟不确定性研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

武震  张世强  丁永建 《中国沙漠》2007,27(5):890-896

从水文系统模拟的基本特点出发,分析了水文模拟中广泛存在的不确定性的来源,对与水文系统模拟不确定性相关的研究进展进行了分类回顾,并介绍了贝叶斯概率水文预报理论的一般流程。研究回顾表明,数理统计是定量描述水文不确定性的有利工具。其次,完善水文机理研究,提高降水及下垫面相关参数的观测水平,以及提高降水预报的精度、概率水文算法的效率和精度是进一步减少水文模拟的不确定性的发展方向。  相似文献   

Linear and nonlinear input/output models for karstic springflow and flood prediction at different time scales   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

D. Labat  R. Ababou  A. Mangin 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(5):337-364

Karstic formations function as three-dimensional (3D) hydrological basins, with both surface and subsurface flows through fissures, natural conduits, underground streams and reservoirs. The main characteristic of karstic formations is their significant 3D physical heterogeneity at all scales, from fine fissuration to large holes and conduits. This leads to dynamic and temporal variability, e.g. highly variable flow rates, due to several concurrent flow regimes with several distinct response times. The temporal hydrologic response of karstic basins is studied here from an input/output, systems analysis viewpoint. The hydraulic behaviour of the basins is approached via the relationship between hydrometeorological inputs and outputs. These processes are represented and modeled as random, self-correlated and cross-correlated, stationary time processes. More precisely, for each site-specific case presented here, the input process is the total rainfall on the basin and the output process is the discharge rate at the outlet of the basin (karstic spring). In the absence of other data, these time processes embody all the available information concerning a given karstic basin. In this paper, we first present a brief discussion of the physical structure of karstic systems. Then, we formulate linear and nonlinear models, i.e. functional relations between rainfall and runoff, and methods for identifying the kernel and coefficients of the functionals (deterministic vs. statistical; error minimisation vs. polynomial projection). These are based mostly on Volterra first order (linear) or second order (nonlinear) convolution. In addition, a new nonlinear threshold model is developed, based on the frequency distribution of interannual mean daily runoff. Finally, the different models and identification methods are applied to two karstic watersheds in the french Pyrénées mountains, using long sequences of rainfall and spring outflow data at two different sampling rates (daily and semi-hourly). The accuracy of nonlinear and linear rainfall-runoff models is tested at three time scales: long interannual scale (20 years of daily data), medium or seasonal scale (3 months of semi-hourly data), and short scale or “flood scale” (2 days of semi-hourly data). The model predictions are analysed in terms of global statistical accuracy and in terms of accuracy with respect to high flow events (floods).  相似文献   

20世纪科学水文学的崛起          下载免费PDF全文

J·C·I·杜格 《水科学进展》1999,10(3):202-214

参阅了水文学发展历程中具有里程碑意义的杰出出版物,评述了水文科学基础的成长历程。将水文学发展史划分四个时期,每一个时期各有其特点。这四个时期是:(a)经验时期(1900～1930);(b)推理时期(1930～1950);(c)理论化时期(1950～1975);(d)计算机化时期(1975～2000).  相似文献   

Preferential flow: first results of a full-scale flow model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. A. al Hagrey  T. Schubert-Klempnauer  D. Wachsmuth  J. Michaelsen  & R. Meissner 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,138(3):643-654

The main goal of a joint project undertaken by the geophysical and hydrological research units of Kiel University is to study preferential flow in a large open-air, full-scale model, looking in particular at near-surface penetration and flow of water through the unsaturated vadose zone. An artificial irrigation device is installed in place of natural rain, and a homogeneous sand body is used instead of natural soil. This provides a reference model for future field experiments. Inside the sand body there are a large number of geophysical and hydrological sensors to measure DC resistivity (using various electrode configurations), water content and water potential (using TDR and tensiometer instruments, respectively). A ground-penetrating radar (GPR) system is installed at the surface, whereas at the bottom several containers and a thin gravel layer are embedded to measure the flow arrival and the discharge of water. Irrigation is varied in intensity, time, area, and salt content (tracer).
  Results of the first six experiments show that the percolation of intruding water can be followed by all techniques and percolation is finally controlled by the discharge measurements. These display some undulations and variations of the water 'front' and agree with the measurements of all other sensors. The redundancy achieved by the use of multiple methods was intended to enable an assessment of the reliability of the techniques used. The true values of electrical resistivity before and after irrigation reflect the distribution of water saturation within the sand body. A numerical 3-D inversion of the apparent resistivity provides information regarding future field experiments, in which it will be possible to install only some of the sensors in order to preserve the natural structure of the soil.  相似文献   

水文工作回顾与展望   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Bureau of Hydrology  Ministry of Water Resources 《水文》1999,(5):5-10

新中国成立５０年来,水文工作经历了迅速发展、曲折前进,改革开放三个发展阶段。新中国的水文工作在水文测验、水文情报预报,水文分析计算和水资源评价,水文科学研究,水文教育,水文国际合作与交流诸方面都取得了前所未有的巨大成就,为社会主义建设作出了巨大贡献。当前,中国水文工作面临着新的挑战和机遇,今后必须有新的发展,以满足新的迫切的社会需求。  相似文献   

The Climate and Hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

DECLAN CONWAY 《The Geographical journal》2000,166(1):49-62

The Upper Blue Nile river basin is the largest in Ethiopia in terms of volume of discharge, second largest in terms of area, and contributes over 50 per cent of the long-term river flow of the Main Nile. This paper provides a review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology in the source region of the Blue Nile-the central Ethiopian Highlands. Annual rainfall over the basin decreases from the south-west (>2000 mm) to the north-east (around 1000 mm), with about 70 per cent occurring between June and September. A basin-wide time series of annual rainfall constructed from 11 gauges for the period 1900 to 1998 has a mean of 1421millimetres, minimum in 1913 (1148 mm) and maximum in 1903 (1757 mm). Rainfall over the basin showed a marked decrease between the mid-1960s and the late 1980s and dry years show a degree of association with low values of the Southern Oscillation Index (Sol). The October to February dry season in 1997/98 was the wettest on record and responsible for widespread flooding across Ethiopia and also parts of Somalia and Kenya. Available river flow records, which are sparse and of limited duration, are presented for the Blue Nile and its tributaries upstream of the border with Sudan. Runoff over the basin amounts to 45.9 cubic kilometres (equivalent to 1456 m₃s₋₁) discharge, or 261 millimetre depth (1961–1990), a runoff ratio of 18 per cent. Between 1900 and 1997 annual river flow has ranged from 20.6 cubic kilometres (1913) to 79.0 cubic kilometres (1909), and the lowest decade-mean flow was 37.9 cubic kilometres from 1978 to 1987. Annual river flow, like rainfall, shows a strong association with the SOI  相似文献