Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)     

Behrouz Ahmadi‐Nedushan  André St‐Hilaire  Taha B. M. J. Ouarda  Laurent Bilodeau  Élaine Robichaud  Nathalie Thiémonge  Bernard Bobée 《水文研究》2007,21(1):21-34

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The importance of incorporating diurnally fluctuating stream discharge in stream temperature energy balance models          下载免费PDF全文

Emily A. Baker  Laura K. Lautz  Christa A. Kelleher  Jeffrey M. McKenzie 《水文研究》2018,32(18):2901-2914

Although stream temperature energy balance models are useful to predict temperature through time and space, a major unresolved question is whether fluctuations in stream discharge reduce model accuracy when not exactly represented. However, high‐frequency (e.g., subdaily) discharge observations are often unavailable for such simulations, and therefore, diurnal streamflow fluctuations are not typically represented in energy balance models. These fluctuations are common due to evapotranspiration, snow pack or glacial melt, tidal influences within estuaries, and regulated river flows. In this work, we show when to account for diurnally fluctuating streamflow. To investigate how diurnal streamflow fluctuations affect predicted stream temperatures, we used a deterministic stream temperature model to simulate stream temperature along a reach in the Quilcayhuanca Valley, Peru, where discharge varies diurnally due to glacial melt. Diurnally fluctuating streamflow was varied alongside groundwater contributions via a series of computational experiments to assess how uncertainty in reach hydrology may impact simulated stream temperature. Results indicated that stream temperatures were more sensitive to the rate of groundwater inflow to the reach compared with the timing and amplitude of diurnal fluctuations in streamflow. Although incorporating observed diurnal fluctuations in discharge resulted in a small improvement in model RMSE, we also assessed other diurnal discharge signals and found that high amplitude signals were more influential on modelled stream temperatures when the discharge peaked at specific times. Results also showed that regardless of the diurnal discharge signal, the estimated groundwater flux to the reach only varied from 1.7% to 11.7% of the upstream discharge. However, diurnal discharge fluctuations likely have a stronger influence over longer reaches and in streams where the daily range in discharge is larger, indicating that diurnal fluctuations in stream discharge should be considered in certain settings.  相似文献   

Influences of upstream reservoir stratification and downstream tidal fluctuations on the summer thermal regime of a regulated coastal river     

David Timothy West  Robert Daniel Moore 《水文研究》2020,34(24):4660-4674

This study focused on the effects of upstream reservoir thermal dynamics and downstream tidal influences on temperatures in a 25-km reach of Alouette River (coastal British Columbia, Canada) below a control dam and upstream of its confluence with Pitt River. Temperature was monitored during summer 2013 using 25 sensors. Water was released from the reservoir through a low level outlet at approximately 2.7 m³ s⁻¹, except during late spring when a higher flow was released over the dam spillway. Temperature variations in the lowest section of Alouette River, and in the lower portion of a tributary, were distinct from those further upstream due to backwatering effects associated with a semi-diurnal tide, which can cause flow reversals in Pitt River. An internal seiche was identified in the reservoir during mid-summer that resulted in oscillating releases of warmer and cooler water with an amplitude of up to 6°C and a period of approximately 12 hr. Wavelet analysis and band-pass filtering indicated that the 12-hr signal declined in strength with downstream distance, but remained detectable about 15 km below the dam. In contrast, the 24-hr diel signal increased in strength with distance below the dam. Travel times computed via cross-correlation of the 12-hr signals with that at the low level outlet were within ±10% of those estimated from measured mean velocities. Lagrangian tracking of water parcels using the derived travel times indicated that the cooling effect of periodic releases of cold water during the seiching period persisted to the lower extent of the non-tidal reach. The tidally influenced locations experienced higher temperatures than those recorded in the non-tidal portion of Alouette River, although the relative roles of heating in the upstream tidal reach versus upstream advection of water associated with tide-driven flow reversals in Pitt River require further study.  相似文献   

A comparison of surface and subsurface controls on summer temperature in a headwater stream          下载免费PDF全文

Ryan J. MacDonald  Sarah Boon  James M. Byrne  Uldis Silins 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2338-2347

This study compared summer stream temperature between two years in the Star Creek catchment, Alberta, a headwater basin on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Star Creek is a subsurface water dominated stream, which represents important habitat for native salmonid species. Hydrometeorological data from May to September of 2010 and 2011 accompanied by stream energy budget calculations were used to describe the drivers of stream temperature in this small forested stream. Mean, maximum, and minimum weekly stream temperatures were lower from May to August and higher in September 2011 compared to 2010. Weekly range in stream temperature was also different between years with a higher range in 2010. Inter‐annual stream temperature variation was attributed discharge differences between years, shown to be primarily governed by catchment‐scale moisture conditions. This study demonstrates that both meteorological and hydrological processes must be considered in order to understand stream temperature response to changing environmental conditions in mountainous regions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling discharge through artesian springs based on a high‐resolution piezometric network          下载免费PDF全文

P. Martínez‐Santos  S. Díaz‐Alcaide  S. Castaño‐Castaño  A. Hernández‐Espriú 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2251-2261

Artesian springs are localized aquifer outlets that originate when pressurized ground water is allowed to rise to the surface. Computing artesian discharge directly is often subject to practical difficulties such as restricted accessibility, abundant vegetation or slow flow rates. These circumstances call for indirect approaches to quantify flow. This paper presents a method to estimate ground water discharge through an upwelling spring by means of a three‐layer steady‐state groundwater flow model. Model inputs include on‐site measurements of vertical sediment permeability, sediment temperatures and hydraulic gradients. About 70 spring bed piezometers were used to carry out permeability tests within the spring sediments, as well as to quantify the hydraulic head at different depths below the discharge point. Sediment temperatures were measured at different depths and correlated to permeabilities in order to demonstrate the potential of temperature as a substitute for cumbersome slug tests. Results show that the spatial distribution of discharge through the spring bottom is highly heterogeneous, as sediment permeability varies by several orders of magnitude within centimetres. Sensitivity analyses imply that geostatistical interpolation is irrelevant to the results if field datasets come from a sufficiently high resolution of piezometric records. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Urban stream temperature patterns: Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the Philadelphia region,Pennsylvania, USA     

Sarah Beganskas  Laura Toran 《水文研究》2021,35(2):e14039

Stream temperature is a critical water quality parameter that is not fully understood, particularly in urban areas. This study explores drivers contributing to stream temperature variability within an urban system, at 21 sites within the Philadelphia region, Pennsylvania, USA. A comprehensive set of temperature metrics were evaluated, including temperature sensitivity, daily maximum temperatures, time >20°C, and temperature surges during storms. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were the strongest driver of downstream temperature variability along 32 km in Wissahickon Creek. WWTP effluent temperature controlled local (1–3 km downstream) temperatures year-round, but the impacts varied seasonally: during winter, local warming of 2–7°C was consistently observed, while local cooling up to 1°C occurred during summer. Summer cooling and winter warming were detected up to 12 km downstream of a WWTP. Comparing effects from different WWTPs provided guidelines for mitigating their thermal impact; WWTPs that discharged into larger streams, had cooler effluent, or had lower discharge had less effect on stream temperatures. Comparing thermal regimes in four urban headwater streams, sites with more local riparian canopy had cooler maximum temperatures by up to 1.5°C, had lower temperature sensitivity, and spent less time at high temperatures, although mean temperatures were unaffected. Watershed-scale impervious area was associated with increased surge frequency and magnitude at headwater sites, but most storms did not result in a surge and most surges had a low magnitude. These results suggest that maintaining or restoring riparian canopy in urban settings will have a larger impact on stream temperatures than stormwater management that treats impervious area. Mitigation efforts may be most impactful at urban headwater sites, which are particularly vulnerable to stream temperature disruptions. It is vital that stream temperature impacts are considered when planning stormwater management or stream restoration projects, and the appropriate metrics need to be considered when assessing impacts.  相似文献   

Effects of bedrock groundwater discharge on spatial variability of dissolved carbon,nitrogen, and phosphorous concentrations in stream water within a forest headwater catchment     

Tomohiro Egusa  Tomo'omi Kumagai  Tomoki Oda  Nobuhito Ohte 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13993

The quantitative evaluation of the effects of bedrock groundwater discharge on spatial variability of stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorous (DIP) concentrations has still been insufficient. We examined the relationships between stream DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations and bedrock groundwater contribution to stream water in forest headwater catchments in warm-humid climate zones. We sampled stream water and bedrock springs at multiple points in September and December 2013 in a 5 km² forest headwater catchment in Japan and sampled groundwater in soil layer in small hillslopes. We assumed that stream water consisted of four end members, groundwater in soil layer and three types of bedrock groundwater, and calculated the contributions of each end member to stream water from mineral-derived solute concentrations. DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations in stream water were compared with the calculated bedrock groundwater contribution. The bedrock groundwater contribution had significant negative linear correlation with stream DOC concentration, no significant correlation with stream DIN concentration, and significant positive linear correlation with stream DIP concentration. These results highlighted the importance of bedrock groundwater discharge in establishing stream DOC and DIP concentrations. In addition, stream DOC and DIP concentrations were higher and lower, respectively, than those expected from end member mixing of groundwater in soil layer and bedrock springs. Spatial heterogeneity of DOC and DIP concentrations in groundwater and/or in-stream DOC production and DIP uptake were the probable reasons for these discrepancies. Our results indicate that the relationships between spatial variability of stream DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations and bedrock groundwater contribution are useful for comparing the processes that affect stream DOC, DIN and DIP concentrations among catchments beyond the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological and biogeochemical processes within a catchment.  相似文献   

Flood hydrograph reconstruction from the peak flow value in ephemeral streams using a simplified robust single‐parameter model          下载免费PDF全文

G. Ronen‐Eliraz  H. Ginat  A. Dody  D. Blumberg  O. Dahan 《水文研究》2016,30(17):3004-3013

Flood hydrographs from ephemeral streams in arid areas provide valuable information for assessing run‐off and groundwater recharge. However, such data are often scarce or incomplete, especially in hyper‐arid regions. The hypothesis of this study was that it is possible to reconstruct a hydrograph of a specific point along an ephemeral stream with the knowledge of only the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point and that this can be done at almost every point along the stream. The feasibility of this approach lies in the shape of the recession stage of the flood hydrograph, which is known to be a repeating phenomenon. The recession stage comes immediately after the peak flow rate, when it begins its decline, and lasts until the flood is extinguished. A general shape of the flood recession stage can be provided. Because the recession stage represents ~80% of the duration of a flood event, it can provide a general idea of the flood hydrograph's shape. A simple model based on geometric progression is suggested to describe the repeating recession stage of a flood. The advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only one parameter: the recession characteristic at a fixed point along the ephemeral stream, termed recession coefficient q. By knowing the recession coefficient of a fixed point and the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point, one can plot the flood hydrograph. A good agreement is shown between the observed and computed values of the recession stage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evidence for rapid ice flow and proglacial lake evolution around the central Strait of Magellan region,southernmost Patagonia     

Harold Lovell  Chris R. Stokes  Michael J. Bentley  Douglas I. Benn 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(6):625-638

This paper presents a detailed palaeoglaciological reconstruction of ice sheet dynamics in the Seno Skyring, Seno Otway and Strait of Magellan region of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet, with a particular focus on previously hypothesised zones of rapid ice flow and the evolution of proglacial lakes. Geomorphological mapping from a combination of satellite imagery and oblique and vertical aerial photographs reveals a variety of glacial landforms that are grouped into several discrete flow‐sets and associated ice margin positions. The most distinct features are represented by flow‐sets of highly elongate streamlined glacial lineations on both sides of the Strait of Magellan. Based on the shape and dimensions of the flow‐sets and their abrupt lateral margins, a transverse and longitudinal variation in glacial lineation length and elongation ratio, and the reported presence of a potentially deformable bed and thrust moraines, the flow‐sets are interpreted as zones of rapid ice flow within the Otway and Magellan lobes. We hypothesise that this provides evidence for contemporaneous surge‐like advances within the lobes, which may explain the asymmetry in the lobate margin positions on either side of the strait. The mechanisms that initiated rapid flow are unclear, but are likely to have been influenced by internal factors such as a change in thermal/hydrological conditions at the bed. The topography of the region suggests ice‐dammed lakes would have formed as the ice lobes retreated. The westernmost of the former lakes, Lake Skyring, is delimited by a series of palaeo‐shorelines surrounding the present‐day lake Laguna Blanca and we reconstruct lake evolution based on manipulation of a digital elevation model. The size and orientation of meltwater channels and a large outwash plain indicate that Lake Skyring drained eastwards towards the Strait of Magellan, probably quite rapidly. We conclude that the potential for quasi‐independent surge‐like behaviour within adjacent lobes raises the possibility that, during climate‐driven ice expansion, some advances in this region may have been partly controlled by secondary internal feedback mechanisms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

New age constraints for the maximum extent of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (NW sector)     

J. D. Everest  T. Bradwell  M. Stoker  S. Dewey 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(1):2-7

This paper presents the first terrestrial age constraints from the outer continental shelf for the maximum extent of the NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be ages from eight glacially transported boulders on the island of North Rona show that the Late Devensian (Late Weichselian) British–Irish Ice Sheet overrode the island at its maximal stage and retreated c. 25 ka BP. These new dates, supported by other geological evidence, indicate that the north‐western part of the ice sheet was most extensive between 27 and 25 ka BP, reaching the outer continental shelf during the global eustatic sea‐level minimum at the Last Glacial Maximum. Copyright © 2012 British Geological Survey/Natural Environment Research Council copyright 2012. Reproduced with the permission of BGS/NERC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献