Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes. 相似文献
Time and space variant soil properties at a liquefied site were simultaneously identified in the time domain by using borehole array strong motion records. During soil liquefaction at a site, soils usually show a wide variety of non-linear behavior along the depth as well as non-stationary behavior. Strong ground motion records were obtained at Port Island borehole array observatory, Kobe, during the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake. In this study, the instrumented soil was modeled by the equivalent linear MDOF system, and an extended Kalman filter with local iteration was employed for the identification of the soils. The identification process was successfully conducted, and the stress–strain relationships of the soils at the liquefied site were obtained from different depths all at once. 相似文献
Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models
and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In
this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification.
We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and
the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features
for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can
be implemented. 相似文献
INTRODUCTIONThe structural mine earthquake in coal mines refers to the quake induced by excavationengineeringthatleadstorupturingor change of geological structure and weakness surfaceintheinteriorof rock mass.According to the origin,mine earthquakes can b… 相似文献
Sand-rich submarine fans are radial or curved in plan view depending on the slope of the basin floor. They occur isolated or in coalescing systems. The fans' average lateral extent measures close to 25 km and their thickness usually less than 300 m. The thickness of outer fan sequences averages around 120 m and that of middle fan successions around 160 m. Rarely reported inner fan sequences have a maximum thickness of 80 m.
The formation of sand-rich fans is closely related to tectonic activity. Their sediment is coarse-grained and compositionally immature as indicated by significant feldspar content due to close provenance and rapid transport by short rivers with a steep gradient controlled by tectonism. Tectonic activity also provides for narrow shelves making the fans relatively insensitive to sealevel changes. Formation of sand-rich fans typically occurs in restricted continental basins. The tectonic settings are highly variable. Sand-rich fans typically receive their sediment through submarine canyons which intercept sand from longshore drift and/or are fed more or less directly by regional rivers.
The type of ancient fan system (radial, curved, isolated, coalescing) may be identified through paleocurrent map plots, facies map sketches, recognition of lateral thickness variations and sediment influx centers, as well as lateral bed correlations defining the minimum fan extent.
Important in distinguishing different environments of ancient fans are detailed measured sections, their comparison and correlation. Channelized inner fan and middle fan deposits may be distinguished from the unchannelized outer fan successions through bed correlation tests which reflect their different stratigraphic architectures and bedding patterns. Bedding in outer fan deposits (lobes) is relatively simple, parallel, and regular. The lateral bed continuity is relatively high. Channel fills, especially those of middle fan distributary channels, display a complicated bedding pattern with vertical and lateral random distribution of channel fills, axial erosion, and bed convergence towards the channel margins. Channel fills exhibit only linear bed continuity. Thus, the probability in carrying out local to regional scale lateral bed correlations is almost exclusively limited to outer fan deposits.
The measured sections will help further distinguish fan environments by revealing: (1) different facies associations in outer fan sequences (mainly B, C and D) and middle fan successions (mainly A, B, C, D, and channel margin facies); (2) greater average bed and layer thicknesses in middle fan as opposed to outer fan successions (“bed” and “layer” as used herein); (3) more frequent amalgamation surfaces in channel fills than in unchannelized outer fan deposits; (4) more frequent tabular amalgamation surfaces in outer fan sections; (5) more frequent nontabular amalgamation surfaces in channel fills; and (6) more frequent dish structures in middle fan than outer fan successions.
Rarely exposed fan valley fills may be identified by coarse conglomerates. Moreover, in proximity to fan valley fills, relatively mud-rich sediments may be observed that derive from the depositional system of the basin slope. 相似文献
