SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

Chromospheric activity and unique solution of SZ Psc     

Young Woon Kang  Woo-Baik Lee  Ho-il Kim  Kyu-Dong Oh 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,344(4):1227-1232

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Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hong-Qi Zhang  Xing-Ming Bao  Yin Zhang  Ji-Hong Liu  Shu-Dong Bao  Yuan-Yong Deng  Wei Li  Jie Chen  Jin-Ping Dun  Jiang-Tao Su  Juan Guo  Xiao-Fan Wang  Ke-Liang Hu  Gang-Hua Lin  Dong-Guang WangNational Astronomical Observatories  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing   《中国天文和天体物理学报》2003,3(6):491-494

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.  相似文献   

A model of polarized OH maser emission in W75N     

M. D. Gray  B. Hutawarakorn  R. J. Cohen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(4):1067-1080

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类太阳色球活动星εEri磁场的观测研究     

刘学富  曹雪勇 《天文学报》1996,37(3):227-234

本文给出１９９３—１９９４年期间，用云南天文台１米望远镜折轴摄谱仪观测获得类太阳色球活动星。εＥｒｉ的５个波段高分辨、高信噪比光谱，运用两种不同方法：谱线轮廓塞曼致宽分析和多重线统计分析法成功地测定了εＥｒｉ的表面磁场强度和磁场的覆盖因子，并对这两种磁场测定方法作了简单的讨论．  相似文献   

Magnetic Reconnection, Turbulence, and Collisionless Shock     

Hantao Ji  Russell Kulsrud  Masaaki Yamada 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,298(1-2):219-226

A short summary of recent progress in measuring and understanding turbulence during magnetic reconnection in laboratory plasmas is given. Magnetic reconnection is considered as a primary process to dissipate magnetic energy in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas. A central question concerns why the observed reconnection rates are much faster than predictions made by classical theories, such as the Sweet–Parker model based on MHD with classical Spitzer resistivity. Often, the local resistivity is conjectured to be enhanced by turbulence to accelerate reconnection rates either in the context of the Sweet–Parker model or by facilitating setup of the Pestchek model. Measurements at a dedicated laboratory experiment, called MRX or Magnetic Reconnection Experiment, have indicated existence of strong electromagnetic turbulence in current sheets undergoing fast reconnection. The origin of the turbulence has been identified as right-hand polarized whistler waves, propagating obliquely to the reconnecting field, with a phase velocity comparable to the relative drift velocity. These waves are consistent with an obliquely propagating electromagnetic lower-hybrid drift instability driven by drift speeds large compared to the Alfven speed in high-beta plasmas. Interestingly, this instability may explain electromagnetic turbulence also observed in collisionless shocks, which are common in energetic astrophysical phenomena.  相似文献   

Generalized strain probing of constitutive models     

Youssef M. A. Hashash  Qingwei Fu  Jeremy Butkovich 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2004,28(15):1503-1519

Advanced material constitutive models are used to describe complex soil behaviour. These models are often used in the solution of boundary value problems under general loading conditions. Users and developers of constitutive models need to methodically investigate the represented soil response under a wide range of loading conditions. This paper presents a systematic procedure for probing constitutive models. A general incremental strain probe, 6D hyperspherical strain probe (HSP), is introduced to examine rate‐independent model response under all possible strain loading conditions. Two special cases of HSP, the true triaxial strain probe (TTSP) and the plane‐strain strain probe (PSSP), are used to generate 3‐D objects that represent model stress response to probing. The TTSP, PSSP and general HSP procedures are demonstrated using elasto‐plastic models. The objects resulting from the probing procedure readily highlight important model characteristics including anisotropy, yielding, hardening, softening and failure. The PSSP procedure is applied to a Neural Network (NN) based constitutive model. It shows that this probing is especially useful in understanding NN constitutive models, which do not contain explicit functions for yield surface, hardening, or anisotropy. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the Line Formation in Stellar Magnetized Atmospheres     

Zhong-Quan Qu  Xiao-Yu Zhang  Zhi Xu 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2001,1(2):161-175

1 INTRODUCTIONIn the previous paper (on et al. 1999, hereafter Paper I), we investigated the wavelength-dependence of four colltribution functions (CFs) derived from dmerent formal solutions andreferring to different emergellt quantities in the unpolarized case. Because one cannot generallyassign a single formation region to the whole line band in a real stellar atmosphere, e.g., the solaratmosphere, instead, the line formation region can be defined as the layers deviating farthestfrom t…  相似文献   

关于网络用户经济效益评测模型的研究     

岳正华  李黎 《成都信息工程学院学报》2001,16(2):141-144

着重讨论了网络用户经济效益的内涵以及用户的投入量和产出量，并提出了评价网络用户经济效益的指标体系，包括成本降低率，成本利润增长率、产品开发时间约率、市场占有增长率等系列指标。  相似文献   

几个活动区精细H_α结构的物理浅析     

吴蓓  宋慕陶  胡福民 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1994,(2)

本文利用紫金山天文台赣榆站太阳精细结构望远镜拍得的高分辨率色球Ｈ_α照片，分析了三个典型活动区。文中利用并检验了七十年代获得的磁图推导法则，应用自己的数值模拟知识和Ｚｗａａｎ对ＡＦＳ系新浮流区概括的特征，参考七十和九十年代总结的有关耀斑和ＥｌｌｅｒｍａｎＢｏｍｂ的出现规律，逐日分析活动区发展，定出其内部的中性线位置，提出简单和复合中性线的区分，由ＡＦＳ系和亮谱斑同时出现判断新浮流区，从近离带图找等离子体不稳定点，从远离带图找普遍的磁场流场分布，由Ｈ_α结构的综合迹象推测磁场变化。总结出有关活动区Ｈ_α结构、磁场及等离子体性质关系的几点启示。  相似文献