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利用IGS中心提供的不同纬度的电离层TEC值,建立基于改进的集总平均经验模态分解(MEEMD)算法和Elman回归神经网络(ERNN)模型相结合的电离层TEC预报模型。实验结果表明,在低、中、高不同纬度采用本文方法预报5 d电离层TEC的预测值的均方根误差最优可达到0.96 TECu,相对精度最优达到95.4%,精度较EMD-ERNN模型及单一ERNN模型有显著提高。 相似文献
44.
太阳活动高峰年山东区域电离层时空变化研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
2012年为太阳活动高峰年份,为了研究太阳活动高年区域电离层的变化特征,该文选取了山东区域内的SDCORS站点,构建了山东区域垂直电子含量(VTEC)球谐格网模型,对该年山东区域电离层时空变化规律进行分析。实验研究表明,在空间变化上山东区域电离层表现出较强的纬度相关性,出现了明显的分层现象。同时给出了山东电离层在时间上呈现出的时段变化、日变化、月变化、季节变化,发现VTEC受太阳活动影响较大,除了存在明显的单峰和双峰结构外,该年还发生了半年度异常现象。 相似文献
45.
Laštovička Jan Burešová Dalia Boška Josef Bremer Jurgen Märcz Ferenc 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1997,41(2):171-180
Data from four A3 radio wave circuits in central Europe are used to analyse the representativeness of the ionization and gravity wave activity pattern in the lower ionosphere (85 – 100 km) in the CRISTA experiment interval (3 – 12 November 1994) for the given conditions. It has been found that the CRISTA experiment interval was run under conditions, which are highly representative both of October – November 1994 and autumn, low-moderate solar activity, the descending phase of solar cycle conditions, i.e. CRISTA measurements may be considered to provide values identical with, or close to climatological values (at least for central Europe, h = 85 – 100 km). 相似文献
46.
为讨论不同时间序列模型对电离层垂直总电子含量(VTEC)的预报效果,在平静电离层条件下,采用载波相位平滑伪距法解算单站上空的电离层VTEC值,分别利用自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)与Holt-Winters指数平滑模型进行逐站建模,通过时长为9 d的样本序列实现3 d预报,并对预报值进行系统评估.结果表明,时间序列模型能够较好地反映预报期内的电离层VTEC变化情况,均方根误差均值不超5 TECU.此外,Holt-Winters乘法模型的预报值偏差最大,加法模型次之,ARIMA模型在11个测站的相对精度都高于Holt-Winters指数平滑模型,且其均方根误差峰值最小,具有最高的预报精度. 相似文献
47.
The continuous increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to cool higher levels of the atmosphere. There is some direct and indirect experimental evidence of long-term trends in temperature and other parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Here we look for long-term trends in the annual and semiannual variations of the radio wave absorption in the lower ionosphere, which corresponds to the MLT region heights. Data from central and southeastern Europe are used. A consistent tendency to a positive trend in the amplitude of the semiannual wave appears to be observed. The reality of a similar tendency in the amplitude of the annual wave is questionable in the sense that the trend in the amplitude of the annual wave is probably induced by the trend in the yearly average values of absorption. The phases of both the annual and semiannual waves display a forward tendency, i.e. shift to an earlier time in the year. A tentative interpretation of these results in terms of changes of the seasonal variation of temperature and wind at MLT heights does not contradict the trends observed in those parameters. 相似文献
48.
D. K. Singh Ashok K. Singh R. P. Patel R. P. Singh A. K. Singh 《Annales Geophysicae》1999,17(10):1260-1267
The morphology of ELF hiss events observed at low-latitude ground station Varanasi (L = 1.07, geomagnetic latitude 14°55′N) are reported, which consist of two types: (1) events which propagated in ducted mode along the geomagnetic field line corresponding to observing station Varanasi and (2) events which propagated in ducted mode along higher L-values (L = 4–6), after reaching the lower edge of ionosphere excite the Earth-ionosphere wave guide and propagate towards equator to be received at Varanasi. To understand the generation mechanism of ELF hiss, incoherent Cerenkov radiated power from the low latitude and middle latitude plasmasphere are evaluated. Considering this estimated power as an input for wave amplification through wave-particle interaction, the growth rate and amplification factor is evaluated which is too small to explain the observed wave intensity. It is suggested that some non-linear mechanism is responsible for the generation of ELF hiss. 相似文献
49.
P. Prikryl J. W. MacDougall I. F. Grant D. P. Steele G. J. Sofko R. A. Greenwald 《Annales Geophysicae》1999,17(4):463-489
A long series of polar patches was observed by ionosondes and an all-sky imager during a disturbed period (Kp = 7- and IMF Bz <0). The ionosondes measured electron densities of up to 9 × 1011 m−3 in the patch center, an increase above the density minimum between patches by a factor of ≈4.5. Bands of F-region irregularities generated at the equatorward edge of the patches were tracked by HF radars. The backscatter bands were swept northward and eastward across the polar cap in a fan-like formation as the afternoon convection cell expanded due to the IMF By > 0. Near the north magnetic pole, an all-sky imager observed the 630-nm emission patches of a distinctly band-like shape drifting northeastward to eastward. The 630-nm emission patches were associated with the density patches and backscatter bands. The patches originated in, or near, the cusp footprint where they were formed by convection bursts (flow channel events, FCEs) structuring the solar EUV-produced photoionization and the particle-produced auroral/cusp ionization by segmenting it into elongated patches. Just equatorward of the cusp footprint Pc5 field line resonances (FLRs) were observed by magnetometers, riometers and VHF/HF radars. The AC electric field associated with the FLRs resulted in a poleward-progressing zonal flow pattern and backscatter bands. The VHF radar Doppler spectra indicated the presence of steep electron density gradients which, through the gradient drift instability, can lead to the generation of the ionospheric irregularities found in patches. The FLRs and FCEs were associated with poleward-progressing DPY currents (Hall currents modulated by the IMF By) and riometer absorption enhancements. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the VHF backscatter and associated riometer absorptions closely resembled those of poleward moving auroral forms (PMAFs). In the solar wind, IMP 8 observed large amplitude Alfvén waves that were correlated with Pc5 pulsations observed by the ground magnetometers, riometers and radars. It is concluded that the FLRs and FCEs that produced patches were driven by solar wind Alfvén waves coupling to the dayside magnetosphere. During a period of southward IMF the dawn-dusk electric field associated with the Alfvén waves modulated the subsolar magnetic reconnection into pulses that resulted in convection flow bursts mapping to the ionospheric footprint of the cusp. 相似文献
50.
J. Lastovicka D. Pancheva D. Altadill E. A. Benediktov J. Boška J. Bremer M. Dick K. Igarashi P. Mlch B. A. de la Morena Z. T. Rapoport V. A. Vyakhirev B. O. Vugmeister X. Zhang B. Zolesi 《Annales Geophysicae》1999,17(8):1040-1052
The CRISTA/MAHRSI experiment on board a space shuttle was accompanied by a broad campaign of rocket, balloon and ground-based measurements. Supporting lower ionospheric ground-based measurements were run in Europe and Eastern Asia between 1 October–30 November, 1994. Results of comparisons with long ionospheric data series together with short-term comparisons inside the interval October-November, 1994, showed that the upper middle atmosphere (h =80–100 km) at middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the interval of the CRISTA/MAHRSI experiment (4–12 November, 1994) was very close to its expected climatological state. In other words, the average results of the experiment can be used as climatological data, at least for the given area/altitudes. The role of solar/geomagnetic and “meteorological” control of the lower ionosphere is investigated and compared with the results of MAP/WINE, MAC/SINE and DYANA campaigns. The effects of both solar/geomagnetic and global meteorological factors on the lower ionosphere are found to be weak during autumn 1994 compared to those in MAP/WINE and DYANA winters, and they are even slightly weaker than those in MAP/SINE summer. The comparison of the four campaigns suggests the following overall pattern: in winter the lower ionosphere at northern middle latitudes appears to be fairly well “meteorologically” controlled with a very weak solar influence. In summer, solar influence is somewhat stronger and dominates the weak “meteorological” influence, but the overall solar/meteorological control is weaker than in winter. In autumn we find the weakest overall solar/meteorological control, local effects evidently dominate. 相似文献