天山西部中山带积雪变化趋势与气温和降水的关系——以巩乃斯河谷为例   总被引：12，自引：9，他引：12  

张丽旭  魏文寿 《地理科学》2002,22(1):67-71

根据位于巩乃斯河谷的天山积雪雪崩研究站近30年来的年最大雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录，用平均差值法、最小二乘法、自回归滑动平均法检验了天山西部中山带积雪、冷季降水、冷季平均气温的变化趋势，结果表明，天山西部中山带积雪呈增加趋势，近30年来年平均增加1.43%，与青藏高原、南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面积雪积累增加相一致。天山西部中山带冷季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的，其中冷季降水平年平均增加0．12％，而冷季气温升高了0．8℃，积雪与冷季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系，而与冷季降水呈显著的正相关关系。积雪的增加主要是因为气候变暖引起的冷季降水的增加对积雪增加的贡献大于由于冷季气温升高而造成积雪减少的贡献的结果。  相似文献   

我国城乡关联度评价指标体系构建及区域比较分析   总被引：59，自引：8，他引：59  

曾磊  雷军  鲁奇 《地理研究》2002,21(6):763-771

科学评价城乡关系的发展程度和发展状况是城乡一体化研究中需要解决的关键问题。本文在分析了影响城乡融合诸多因素的基础上 ,运用层次分析法构建了一套用以反映区域城乡关系发展特征及程度的评价指标体系 ;并用此评价指标体系的综合评价值———城乡关联度对我国 31个省 (直辖市 ) 2 0 0 0年城乡关系发展状态进行了静态评价 ,评价结果比较真实地反映了城乡两大开放系统之间的要素流转情况和区域城乡关系发展的实际水平。文中对城乡关联度概念及其评价方法的提出是对城乡关系及其量化评价研究所做的有益尝试。  相似文献   

远东热点:朝鲜半岛形势分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘养洁 《世界地理研究》2002,11(3):86-91

朝鲜半岛独特的地理位置，无论对周边的中，俄，日三国，还是对大洋彼岸的美国都具有十分重要的地缘战略意义。如果说这里是四大国利益相互交错的唯一地区，那么解决朝鲜半岛问题便不仅取决于半岛内部北，南双方的互动关系，而且取决于四大四的立场及东北亚政治地理格局的演变态势。近年来随着朝鲜北，南双方首脑的成功会晤，朝鲜半岛的和平统一进程迈出了实质性步伐。但由于朝鲜半岛问题牵涉面广，影响因素复杂，从而使半岛的和平统一进程出现了一波三折的复杂局面，本文从政治地理学角度对半岛形势进行了分析。供关心朝鲜半岛局势的同仁参考。  相似文献   

Time-domain, spectral finite-element approach to transient 2-D geomagnetic induction in a spherical heterogeneous Earth     

Zden&#;k Martinec  Mark E. Everett  Jakub Velímský 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,155(1):33-43

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Present land use and cover patterns and their development potential in North Ningxia     

WU Weicheng  ZHANG Wenfeng 《地理学报》2003,13(1):54-62

With the objectives to acquire the fundamental data of the territorial resource, understand the impacts of human activities on the land use and cover patterns and evaluate the potential of the future exploitation, an intensive land cover classification with an accuracy of 93% has been completed for North Ningxia by remote sensing technique based on the adoption of a combination method composed of texture training, maximum likelihood classification and post-processing such as re-allocation and aggregation. This classification result was incorporated with the contemporaneous socio-economic and meteorological data for cross-sectional regression modelling to reveal the spatial determinants of the land cover patterns and understand the human-environmental relationships. A tentative evaluation on the potential of soil exploitation in the near future was carried out in combination with our land use and cover change detection results aiming at supplying some useful references for the central and local governments in their sustainable land use planning.  相似文献   

b值在地震预测中的三类应用及其物理基础与须注意的问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

韩渭宾 《四川地震》2003,(1):1-5

将b值在地震预测中的直接应用归为三类：1）根据b值的动态变化预测地震。2）根据G－R律求出各级地震平均复发周期或年均发生率，推测未来一定时段如50年或100年内发生各级地震的危险性。3）根据G－R直线在横轴的截距，预测强余震的震级。讨论了这三种用法的物理基础及现有工作中容易出现的问题。  相似文献   

Decoupled seismic analysis of an earth dam   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ernesto Cascone  Sebastiano Rampello 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2003,23(5):349-365

The seismic stability of an earth dam is evaluated via the decoupled displacement analysis using the accelerograms obtained by ground response analysis to compute the earthquake-induced displacements. The response analysis of the dam is carried out under both 1D and 2D conditions, incorporating the non-linear soil behaviour through the equivalent linear method. Ten artificial and five real accelerograms were used as input motions and four different depths were assumed for the bedrock.1D and 2D response analyses were in a fair agreement with the exception of the top third of the dam where only a 2D modelling of the problem could ensure that the acceleration field is properly described. The acceleration amplification ratio obtained in the 2D analyses was equal to about 2 in all the cases considered, consistently with data from real case histories.The maximum permanent displacements computed by the sliding block analysis were small, being less than 10% of the service freeboard; a satisfactory performance of the dam can then be envisaged for any of the seismic scenarios considered in the analyses.  相似文献   

Asymmetric one‐storey elastic systems with non‐linear viscous and viscoelastic dampers: Simplified analysis and supplemental damping system design     

Wen‐Hsiung Lin  Anil K. Chopra 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(4):579-596

Investigated is the accuracy in estimating the response of asymmetric one‐storey systems with non‐linear viscoelastic (VE) dampers by analysing the corresponding linear viscous system wherein all non‐linear VE dampers are replaced by their energy‐equivalent linear viscous dampers. The response of the corresponding linear viscous system is determined by response history analysis (RHA) and by response spectrum analysis (RSA) extended for non‐classically damped systems. The flexible and stiff edge deformations and plan rotation of the corresponding linear viscous system determined by the extended RSA procedure is shown to be sufficiently accurate for design applications with errors generally between 10 and 20%. Although similar accuracy is also shown for the ‘pseudo‐velocity’ of non‐linear VE dampers, the peak force of the non‐linear VE damper cannot be estimated directly from the peak damper force of the corresponding linear viscous system. A simple correction for damper force is proposed and shown to be accurate (with errors not exceeding 15%). For practical applications, an iterative linear analysis procedure is developed for determining the amplitude‐ and frequency‐dependent supplemental damping properties of the corresponding linear viscous system and for estimating the response of asymmetric one‐storey systems with non‐linear VE dampers from the earthquake design (or response) spectrum. Finally, a procedure is developed for designing non‐linear supplemental damping systems that satisfy given design criteria for a given design spectrum. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A unified formulation of the piecewise exact method for inelastic seismic demand analysis including the P‐delta effect     

M. N. Ayd&#x;nolu  Y. M. Fahjan 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(6):871-890

The non‐linear analysis of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems provides the essential background information for both strength‐based design and displacement‐based evaluation/design methodologies through the development of the inelastic response spectra. The recursive solution procedure called the piecewise exact method, which is efficiently used for the response analysis of linear SDOF systems, is re‐formulated in this paper in a unified format to analyse the non‐linear SDOF systems with multi‐linear hysteresis models. The unified formulation is also capable of handling the P‐delta effect, which generally involves the negative post‐yield stiffness of the hysteresis loops. The attractiveness of the method lies in the fact that it provides the exact solution when the loading time history is composed of piecewise linear segments, a condition that is perfectly satisfied for the earthquake excitation. Based on simple recursive relationships given for positive, negative and zero effective stiffnesses, the unified form of the piecewise exact method proves to be an extremely powerful and probably the best tool for the SDOF inelastic time‐history and response spectrum analysis including the P‐delta effect. A number of examples are presented to demonstrate the implementation of the method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A rooftop tuned mass damper frame     

Jerod G. Johnson  Lawrence D. Reaveley  Chris Pantelides 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(6):965-984

This article documents the analytical study and feasibility of placing a tuned mass damper in the form of a limber rooftop moment frame atop relatively stiff structures to reduce seismic acceleration response. Six existing structures were analytically studied using a suite of time history and response spectra records. The analyses indicate that adding mass in conjunction with a limber frame results in an increase in the fundamental period of each structure. The fundamental period increase generally results in a decrease in seismic acceleration response for the same time history and response spectra records. Owing to the limber nature of the rooftop frames, non‐linear analysis methods were required to evaluate the stability of the rooftop tuned mass damper frame. The results indicate the addition of a rooftop tuned mass damper frame reduces the seismic acceleration response for most cases although acceleration response can increase if the rooftop frame is not tuned to accommodate the specific structure's dynamic behaviour and localized soil conditions. Appropriate design of the rooftop tuned mass damper frame can result in decreased seismic acceleration response. This translates to safer structures if used as a retrofit measure or a more economical design if used for new construction. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献