一个海气耦合模式对东亚夏季气候预测潜力的评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

秦正坤  孙照渤  林朝晖  陈红  罗京佳 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(3):426-436

利用一个具有较高分辨率的海气耦合模式SINTEX-F(Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change coupled GCM)的多年回报结果,评估了该海气耦合模式对东亚区域,尤其是中国地区气候异常的预测潜力.与观测实况的比较结果表明:SINTEX-F模式对夏季降水、500 hPa高度场和地表气温都有一定的预测技巧,但是相比而言降水与高度场的回报技巧要高于地表气温;而且耦合模式对东亚地区气候异常的主要空间分布和年际变化特征也有较好的预测潜力,对500 hPa高度场效果较好;对降水异常的年际变化也有一定的预测潜力,尤其是我国中部地区效果较好,但是模式预测的降水异常的幅值较观测相对偏弱;此外对我国西部的极端气候也有一定的预测潜力.  相似文献   

三维变分系统在我国夏季降雨预测中的应用试验     

孙建华  齐琳琳  朱江  赵思雄 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(3):413-425

采用MM5模式及其三维变分系统(MM5/3DVAR)对我国夏季降雨进行了一个月的连续预测试验,并对试验结果进行评估.试验中首先采用"National Meteorological Center(NMC)"方法,将2005年8月的MM5模式的预测结果形成与试验区域和水平分辨率相匹配的背景误差场,并将其与全球背景误差场进行了对比分析,结果表明,采用2005年8月MM5模式预报结果生成的背景误差场的基本特征与系统提供的全球背景误差场相似,且长度尺度随着水平分辨率的提高而减小.之后,分别利用NCEP再分析资料(NCEP试验)、NCEP再分析资料基础上采用CRESSMAN方法分析观测资料(LITT试验)和NCEP再分析资料基础上采用3DVAR系统同化观测资料(3DVAR试验)形成模式预报初始场,再次对2005年8月降雨进行逐日连续预报.逐日降雨预报结果表明,相对NCEP试验,LITT试验中1 和10 mm的预报评分有明显提高,但 25 和 50 mm的预报评分却有所下降,而3DVAR试验的预报评分在10 mm以上均有明显提高.对于降雨期间的形势场预报,3个试验中,除温度场和湿度场外,其他变量场的均方根误差随高度增加而增加,但相比而言,3DVAR试验的均方根误差小于其他2个试验.3DVAR试验对降雨的明显改进,可能是因为其对与背景场信息差别比较大的反应中尺度系统的观测资料的分析结果比较靠近观测资料.  相似文献   

数值模式预报时效对计算精度和时间步长的依赖关系   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王鹏飞  黄刚 《气候与环境研究》2006,11(3):395-403

通过数值计算研究Lorenz非线性动力系统,探讨了非线性动力系统中初值问题的解对时间步长和计算精度的依赖关系,从新的角度研究动力系统的预报时效问题,讨论了评价舍入误差对预报时效影响程度的方法。实验结果表明:动力系统的预报时效不仅与初值误差有关,而且在一定条件下敏感地依赖于计算采用的时间步长和计算精度。  相似文献   

集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征          下载免费PDF全文

张瑜  时洋  周勃旸  马旭林 《大气科学学报》2022,45(2):268-279

初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键.本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风...  相似文献   

Interstellar extinction toward the ultradeep Galactic field of the Chandra observatory from 2MASS data     

M. G. Revnivtsev  R. A. Burenin  S. Yu. Sazonov 《Astronomy Letters》2009,35(5):305-310

We have measured the interstellar extinction in the region of ultradeep Galactic-field observations by the Chandra telescope (l ^II, b ^II) ≈ 0.1–1.42 using photometric data from the 2MASS infrared allsky survey. The angular resolution of our interstellar extinction map is 1′.8. We show that the interstellar extinction has a minimum, A _V ～ 3.4, near the center of the Chandra field of view and increases to A _V ～ 5.8–6 at the edge of the field of view. In addition, we show that the bulk of the extinction is gained in the Galactic disk and is approximately the same for all bulge stars. Our results will be subsequently used to process the Chandra data and to estimate the properties of the stellar population in this region.  相似文献   

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays     

Valry Ferber  Jean-Claude Auriol  Yu-Jun Cui  Jean-Pierre Magnan 《Engineering Geology》2009,104(3-4):200-210

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.  相似文献   

Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Seiya Uyeda  Toshiyasu Nagao  Masashi Kamogawa 《Tectonophysics》2009,470(3-4):205-213

Loss of human lives as a result of earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term earthquake prediction. Short-term prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale earthquake prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.  相似文献   

基于单邻点多波段预测的高光谱图像无损压缩算法     

苏令华  万建伟 《遥感学报》2007,11(2):166-170

提出了一种基于聚类-单邻点、多波段预测-熵编码的高光谱数据无损压缩方法。根据谱向特征,进行高光谱图像矢量聚类。对各个分类,采用单个空间位置邻点、多个波段作为预测数据,训练预测系数,进行三维预测。残差采用Golomb-Rice编码。实验证实了算法的有效性。  相似文献   

脉冲星时间尺度及其TOA预报初步分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨廷高  高玉平 《时间频率学报》2012,35(1):16-23

在简述国际天文学会(IAU)定义的几种不同时间尺度的基础上,重点讨论脉冲星计时观测中时间坐标相对论转换问题。脉冲星计时观测资料分析应该参考地球时TT,并将TT转换为质心坐标时TCB或质心力学时TDB。基于IAU重新定义的TDB,讨论和比较了时间坐标转换的解析算法和利用太阳系天体历表的数值积分算法。分析了TCB和TDB对脉冲星自转参数测量的影响。最后,以毫秒脉冲星PSR B1855+09的计时模型为例,初步分析了脉冲星脉冲到达时间的预报问题。  相似文献   

江苏数字地震台网P波谱震级和地震辐射能的计算     

詹小艳  章东  王凯  王俊 《地震研究》2021,44(1):15-21

基于江苏数字地震台网的宽频带记录,对38次M≥5.0地震的P波谱震级M_P进行测定,对地震的辐射能量进行了估算。结果表明:本文测定的M_P与中国地震台网中心(CENC)测定的MS、德国地学中心(GFZ)测定的MW具有很好的一致性,与该2种震级之间的平均偏差分别约为0.17和0.10级,基本小于世界主要地震机构之间对同一震级的测定误差(约0.2级);同时,基于M_P估算的地震辐射能与基于修正G-R关系由MS震级换算获得的结果十分接近,两者平均能量之比约为1.1,表明M_P与P波群(P+pP+sP)能量流是基本等效的。因此,基于宽频带数字记录测定中强地震的P波谱震级以及地震辐射能是可行的,且测定过程简便。  相似文献