Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

Fluctuation in the zooplankton community in two solar salt ponds,Aveiro, Portugal     

N. Vieira  F. Amat 《International Journal of Salt Lake Research》1995,4(4):327-333

The zooplankton of two salt ponds at Aveiro was studied to evaluate its density and diversity. Samples were collected biweekly from the salt ponds Esmolas and Tanoeiras. Samples were first separated into Holoplankton (Copepoda, nauplii,Acartia, Ostracoda and Anostraca) and Meroplankton (Mollusca, Insecta, annelidan larvae and Ichthyoplankton). The Holoplankton was mainly composed of:Acartia tonsa, Acartia sp.,Eurytemora velox, Artemia sp., and harpacticoids and calanoids. In both salt ponds, species diversity was identical, but total zooplankton density was higher in the Tanoeiras salt pond, probably because its physical and chemical characteristics allowed the development of stable communities.  相似文献   

The timing of ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism in Southern India: U–Th–Pb electron microprobe ages from zircon and monazite in sapphirine-bearing granulites   总被引：1，自引：8，他引：1  

M. Santosh  A.S. Collins  I. Tamashiro  S. Koshimoto  Y. Tsutsumi  K. Yokoyama 《Gondwana Research》2006,10(1-2):128

We report here U–Pb electron microprobe ages from zircon and monazite associated with corundum- and sapphirine-bearing granulite facies rocks of Lachmanapatti, Sengal, Sakkarakkottai and Mettanganam in the Palghat–Cauvery shear zone system and Ganguvarpatti in the northern Madurai Block of southern India. Mineral assemblages and petrologic characteristics of granulite facies assemblages in all these localities indicate extreme crustal metamorphism under ultrahigh-temperature (UHT) conditions. Zircon cores from Lachmanapatti range from 3200 to 2300 Ma with a peak at 2420 Ma, while those from Mettanganam show 2300 Ma peak. Younger zircons with peak ages of 2100 and 830 Ma are displayed by the UHT granulites of Sengal and Ganguvarpatti, although detrital grains with 2000 Ma ages are also present. The Late Archaean-aged cores are mantled by variable rims of Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic ages in most cases. Zircon cores from Ganguvarpatti range from 2279 to 749 Ma and are interpreted to reflect multiple age sources. The oldest cores are surrounded by Palaeoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic rims, and finally mantled by Neoproterozoic overgrowths. In contrast, monazites from these localities define peak ages of between 550 and 520 Ma, with an exception of a peak at 590 Ma for the Lachmanapatti rocks. The outermost rims of monazite grains show spot ages in the range of 510–450 Ma.While the zircon populations in these rocks suggest multiple sources of Archaean and Palaeoproterozoic age, the monazite data are interpreted to date the timing of ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism in southern India as latest Neoproterozoic to Cambrian in both the Palghat–Cauvery shear zone system and the northern Madurai Block. The data illustrate the extent of Neoproterozoic/Cambrian metamorphism as India joined the Gondwana amalgam at the dawn of the Cambrian.  相似文献   

位场自动反演技术的研究现状及意义   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张季生 《地球学报》2006,27(6):609-612

本文首先叙述了重、磁异常自动反演技术的特点。与传统的定性分析重、磁场分布特征的方法不同,重、磁异常自动反演方法通过反演得到地下场源分布,即地下密度或磁性的分布特征。由于密度体或磁性体与地质体的关系更为直接,因此这种新一代重、磁解释成果及图件将成为人们从新的角度来认识地质构造的基础材料。文中不但阐述了该方法的研究现状,同时也说明了存在的问题。  相似文献   

An investigation of subglacial processes at the microscale from Briksdalsbreen, Norway     

JANE K. HART 《Sedimentology》2006,53(1):125-146

The subglacial processes at Briksdalsbreen, Norway, are examined by a combination of sedimentology, thin section and scanning electron microscope (SEM) analysis of till samples from an exposed subglacial surface and from beneath the glacier. Studies of a fluted surface indicate that subglacial deformation is occurring on a field scale with flutes forming behind most clasts 0·6 m high. At the thin section scale (0·014–2·0 mm) it is seen that deformation is by rotation and attenuation and is dependent on till texture. At the SEM scale (0·1–0·4 mm) it is seen that erosion is controlled by abrasion and percussion which produces distinct grain ‘styles’ as part of an erosional continuum. Overall it is shown that rotation and attenuation is a dominant process at all scales and that the clast interactions associated with different scale perturbations within the shear zone control erosion and deposition, as well as landform and fabric production.  相似文献   

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

Mongolian gerbils and Daurian pikas responded differently to changes in precipitation in the Inner Mongolian grasslands     

G. Wang  W. Zhong 《Journal of Arid Environments》2006,66(4):648-656

Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) and Daurian pikas (Ochotona dauurica) are two key small mammal species in the Inner Mongolian grasslands, China. Mongolian gerbils displayed density-dependent population growth, but the time lag of density dependence was short and within season. The spring–autumn population growth rate was inversely related to population density in Mongolian gerbils of the Erdos desert grasslands. The autumn–spring population growth rate of Mongolian gerbils was inversely related to winter precipitation. Precipitation had stronger effects on the population growth of gerbils during the non-breeding season. The monthly population growth rate of Daurian pikas was positively related to the monthly precipitation and was inversely related to population density in central Inner Mongolia. Daurian pikas select habitats with tall plants. Increased precipitation enhances plant production and increases the height of plants in arid and semi-arid regions. This enhancement of plant height might increase the population growth of Daurian pikas. Mongolian gerbils live in short grasslands. Increased winter precipitation might result in higher winter mortality of Mongolia gerbils, or taller plants might supress gerbil population growth in wet years. Therefore, responses of small mammal species to changes in precipitation depend on the life history of small mammals and changes in vegetation induced by climatic changes.  相似文献   

Retrieval of stratospheric O3 and NO2 vertical profiles using zenith scattered light observations     

G. S. Meena  C. S. Bhosale  D. B. Jadhav 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(3):333-347

Daily zenith scattered light intensity observations were carried out in the morning twilight hours using home-made UV-visible spectrometer over the tropical station Pune (18‡31′, 73‡51′) for the years 2000–2003. These observations are obtained in the spectral range 462–498 nm for the solar zenith angles (SZAs) varying from 87‡ to 91.5‡. An algorithm has been developed to retrieve vertical profiles of ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) from ground-based measurements using the Chahine iteration method. This retrieval method has been checked using measured and recalculated slant column densities (SCDs) and they are found to be well matching. O₃ and NO₂ vertical profiles have been retrieved using a set of their air mass factors (AMFs) and SCDs measured over a range of 87–91.5‡ SZA during the morning. The vertical profiles obtained by this method are compared with Umkehr profiles and ozonesondes and they are found to be in good agreement. The bulk of the column density is found near layer 20–25 km. Daily total column densities (TCDs) of O₃ and NO₂ along with their stratospheric and tropospheric counterparts are derived using their vertical profiles for the period 2000–2003. The total column, stratospheric column and tropospheric column amounts of both trace gases are found to be maximum in summer and minimum in the winter season. Increasing trend is found in column density of NO₂ in stratospheric, tropospheric and surface layers, but no trend is observed in O₃ columns for above layers during the period 2000–2003  相似文献   

Evidence of reworking and resuspension of carbonates during last glacial maximum and early deglacial period along the southwest coast of India     

Kamlesh Verma  M Sudhakar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(6):695-702

A gravity core collected from the upper slope of southwest of Quilon at a water depth of 776 m (Lat: 8°12′263″N, Long: 76°28′281″E) was analysed for texture (carbonate free), calcium carbonate and organic carbon. Variation in silicic fraction seems to be controlled by silt, i.e., enrichment from 15 ka BP to 10 ka BP and then constant in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, the silicic fraction gets depleted compared to the Holocene section with a minimum around 21 ka BP. Clay content remains nearly constant except in the Holocene where it shows an enrichment. Carbonate content of less than 63 micron when computed by subtracting coarse fraction content from the total carbonate suggests that the total carbonates are mainly concentrated in the finer fraction. All these carbonate phases show an inverse relationship with silicic fraction except in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, CaCO₃ dominates in sediments comprising more than 65%, such an increase is also seen in the coarse fraction. Coarse fraction from these sections contains abundant nodular type aggregates encrusting small forams. This period is marked by a high sedimentation rate comparable to Holocene. These parameters suggest that the productivity and precipitation have increased in the Holocene due to the intensification of the southwest monsoon. During the last glacial maximum and early deglacial period the high sedimentation rate indicates redeposition of the carbonates from the existing carbonate lithofacies situated between Quilon and Cape Comorin probably due to the slope instability.  相似文献   

Evaluation of three waterborne polymers as stabilizers for sandy soil     

Abdullah Al-Khanbashi  Shihab W. Abdalla 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(6):1603-1625

This study reports on waterborne polymer emulsion systems that were used for structural modification of sandy soils. The first emulsion used was a styrene-acrylic, copolymer emulsion; the second and third were vinyl-acrylic, copolymer-based emulsions. Specimens were prepared by adding different polymer emulsions to the sand and water in prescribed amounts. The performance of the different emulsion systems as sand stabilizers was estimated through measurement of the hydraulic conductivity and compressive strength. Measurements of hydraulic conductivity were conducted in a flexible membrane test apparatus. The hydraulic conductivity for the three emulsions decreased at different rates, with an increase in polymer content up to 3 wt. (i.e., % by weight). Additional increase of polymer content did not introduce significant decrease in hydraulic conductivity, and, at 5 wt.%, the three emulsions had essentially the same effect. Measurements made on dry cylindrical specimens disclosed remarkable enhancement in the mechanical behavior of the system. The compressive strength and modulus of elasticity of the examined emulsions increased with a higher concentration of polymer. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) revealed that the reduction in the permeability and the improved mechanical properties can be attributed to three dominant structural changes: the development of interconnecting ties between the sand particles, the development of adhesion between neighboring sand particles in contact, and the covering of the sand particles with a thin polymer film.  相似文献