Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators     

J. R. Stedinger  L. -H. Lu 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):49-75

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.  相似文献   

Uncertainty in Coal Property Valuation in West Virginia: A Case Study     

Michael E. Hohn  Ronald R. McDowell 《Mathematical Geology》2001,33(2):191-216

Interpolated grids of coal bed thickness are being considered for use in a proposed method for taxation of coal in the state of West Virginia (United States). To assess the origin and magnitude of possible inaccuracies in calculated coal tonnage, we used conditional simulation to generate equiprobable realizations of net coal thickness for two coals on a 7 min topographic quadrangle, and a third coal in a second quadrangle. Coals differed in average thickness and proportion of original coal that had been removed by erosion; all three coals crop out in the study area. Coal tonnage was calculated for each realization and for each interpolated grid for actual and artificial property parcels, and differences were summarized as graphs of percent difference between tonnage calculated from the grid and average tonnage from simulations. Coal in individual parcels was considered minable for valuation purposes if average thickness in each parcel exceeded 30 inches. Results of this study show that over 75% of the parcels are classified correctly as minable or unminable based on interpolation grids of coal bed thickness. Although between 80 and 90% of the tonnages differ by less than 20% between interpolated values and simulated values, a nonlinear conditional bias might exist in estimation of coal tonnage from interpolated thickness, such that tonnage is underestimated where coal is thin, and overestimated where coal is thick. The largest percent differences occur for parcels that are small in area, although because of the small quantities of coal in question, bias is small on an absolute scale for these parcels. For a given parcel size, maximum apparent overestimation of coal tonnage occurs in parcels with an average coal bed thickness near the minable cutoff of 30 in. Conditional bias in tonnage for parcels having a coal thickness exceeding the cutoff by 10 in. or more is constant for two of the three coals studied, and increases slightly with average thickness for the third coal.  相似文献   

基于网络流理论的输油管道的最大输送问题研究     

张延飞  姜俊坡 《华东地质学院学报》2007,30(4):392-395

在天然气管道网络系统的工艺设计方案中,对布站的站点选择主要取决于其运营成本的相互比较,但鉴于需求和供应之间的关系,还必须考虑管道的输送能力和站点的容量等问题。对于这样复杂化的问题,利用网络流理论的最大流问题和最小费用的最大流问题,建立了输油管道最大输送问题的网络优化模型,并通过实例说明其有效性和可靠性。为输油管道网系统的构建提供了一种新的优化方法,在天然气管道输送决策管理中具有一定的理论参考价值和现实意义。  相似文献   

Hybrid Estimation of Semivariogram Parameters   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hao Zhang  Dale L. Zimmerman 《Mathematical Geology》2007,39(2):247-260

Two widely used methods of semivariogram estimation are weighted least squares estimation and maximum likelihood estimation. The former have certain computational advantages, whereas the latter are more statistically efficient. We introduce and study a “hybrid” semivariogram estimation procedure that combines weighted least squares estimation of the range parameter with maximum likelihood estimation of the sill (and nugget) assuming known range, in such a way that the sill-to-range ratio in an exponential semivariogram is estimated consistently under an infill asymptotic regime. We show empirically that such a procedure is nearly as efficient computationally, and more efficient statistically for some parameters, than weighted least squares estimation of all of the semivariogram’s parameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that standard plug-in (or empirical) spatial predictors and prediction error variances, obtained by replacing the unknown semivariogram parameters with estimates in expressions for the ordinary kriging predictor and kriging variance, respectively, perform better when hybrid estimates are plugged in than when weighted least squares estimates are plugged in. In view of these results and the simplicity of computing the hybrid estimates from weighted least squares estimates, we suggest that software that currently estimates the semivariogram by weighted least squares methods be amended to include hybrid estimation as an option.  相似文献   

The effect of interpolation methods in surface definition: an experimental study     

H. Murat Yilmaz 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(9):1346-1361

Mappings of the earth surface and their representation in 3D (three‐dimensional) models are commonly used in most recent research. Modeling research, which starts with classical surveying methods, acquires new dimensions matching the modern technologies. 3D models of any object or earth surface can be used in much visual and scientific research. A digital model of the landscape is an important part within creation of geo‐information systems used in the public administration and in the commercial sphere. It is an important tool in applications such as geomorphology, hydrology, geology, cartography, ecology, mining etc. Values of volume in terrains that do not have regular geometric structure can be obtained more accurately by using 3D models of surfaces with respect to developing technology. Basic data of 3D models must indicate 3D coordinates of the surveyed object in the reference frame. Distribution and intensity of points are important factors in modeling earth surfaces. A minimum number of points is desired in defining an object in 3D. Interpolation methods employing different mathematical models are used to obtain 3D models of terrain surfaces. In this study, the effect of interpolation methods in defining a terrain surface is investigated. For this purpose, a uniform surface, hill‐shaped artificial object with a known volume is employed. The 3D surface and volume are calculated by using 12 different interpolation methods. Point distribution, point intensity and accuracy of point measurements are not considered. The same data set was used for all the interpolation methods. The interpolation methods are compared and evaluated based on the results. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

地统计学分析技术及其在气象中的适用性   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

魏凤英  曹鸿兴 《气象》2002,28(12):3-5

首先论述了地统计学的一些特点，然后从变异函数和Kriging插值两个方面介绍了地统计学的分析技术，最后讨论了地统计学在气象研究中的适用性。  相似文献   

带权约束参数平差在工程控制网优化中的应用     

鲍峰  程效军 《测绘学报》2002,31(Z1):73-76

介绍用带权约束平差原理编制的工程控制网试验修正法设计和平差程序,并用于设计工程导线和平差变形观测控制网等实际工程的例子,据此提供一些结论和建议.  相似文献   

弹道扰动引力的有限元逼近算法     

赵东明  吴晓平 《测绘学院学报》2002,19(2):99-101

为了克服多项式逼近弹道扰动引力的缺点，根据有限元插值的原理，采用了对弹道周围空间区域进行有限元剖分的方法，利用剖分单元各顶点的扰动引力分量内插出弹道点对应的扰动引力分量值。结果表明，文中提出的逼近算法能够快速精确可靠地逼近弹道扰动引力，是一种具有应用价值的方法。  相似文献   

一种基于GIS的矿产资源潜力评价的自动制图模型     

陈永良  刘大有 《地质论评》2002,48(3):324-329

在基于GIS技术的矿产资源评价工作中,矿产资源潜力评价的自动制图模型通常用来统计综合多源地学信息以便自动圈定成矿远景靶区。在本文中,笔者以人工智能研究领域中的一种不确定推理模型——确定性理论为基础,提出了一种新的矿产资源潜力评价的自动制图模型——合成有矿可信度模型。该模型可以根据研究区各种成矿有利和不利证据的空间分布图,统计生成对应于每一种证据的有矿可信度栅格图,然后,按照特定的有矿可信度合成规则,将所有的有矿可信度栅格图统计综合生成合成有矿可信度栅格图。以该图为依据,可以把研究区内合成有矿可信度相对较高的成矿远景区圈定出来。也可以生成研究区合成有矿可信度等值线图。应用该模型预测了新疆北部多拉纳萨依—阿舍勒地区的多金属成矿远景,并将预测结果与证据加权模型预测结果进行了比较,两种模型的预测结果基本相似,证明了该模型的有效性和实用性。  相似文献   

一种层析成像的正演和反演方法   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

杨旭明  王克斌 《物探化探计算技术》2002,24(4):337-340

作者在本文中提出了一种层析成像的正演和反演方法，首先对求解区作网络划分，由给定的正演速度模型在网格点上双线性插值，获得整个网格节点的速度分布，然后，对波阵面作一近似，在此基础上，用最小走时最短路径射线追踪法完成正演，反演则是通过正演的方法实现的，理论模型算例表明，本方法效果较好。  相似文献