Long-term behaviour of the stellar brightness in eclipsing minima of SV Cam     

A. Hempelmann  G. Rüdiger 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1989,310(2):137-141

Es wird das zeitliche Verhalten der Helligkeit in den zentralen Bedeckungen beider Komponenten von SV Cam – beobachtet zwischen 1973 und 1980 durch PATKOS – analysiert, um das von Busso u. a. aus Helligkeitsvariationen außerhalb der Bedeckungen abgeleitete Sternaktivitätsmodell für diesen Stern zu testen. Ihre Entdeckung eines Zyklus von ungefähr 10 Jahren bestätigt sich aus den Beobachtungen im Hauptminimum, wogegen aus den Beobachtungen des Nebenminimums eine eindeutige Feststellung der Zykluslänge nicht möglich war. Es ist klar erkennbar, daß der Zyklus von Kurzzeitfluktuationen überlagert wird, welche in charakteristischen Zeiten von einigen Tagen bis hin zu Monaten verlaufen. Diese Fluktuationen sind nicht nur während des Hauptminimums, sondern auch während des Nebenminimums zu beobachten. Korrelationen zwischen den Fluktuationen zu diesen beiden Bahnphasen sprechen dafür, daß die Primärkomponente im System SV Cam den Hauptbeitrag zu den beobachteten Helligkeitsvariationen liefert.  相似文献   

城市模型研究的发展趋势及展望     

赵强 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(5):29-31

从内容、空间尺度、时间维、综合程度、建模方式、复杂程度和数学方法等方面对目前的城市模型进行了系统的分类。论述了城市模型研究的发展趋势：模型研究内容日益丰富和多元化;从静态模拟到动态模拟发展;从子系统模拟向综合系统模拟发展;遥感和GIS的应用以及与城市模型的集成。对城市模型研究的未来发展进行了展望,认为未来的城市模型开发应基于综合方法的思想,注重加强城市基本理论和多学科交叉研究,强调城市模拟的动态性和综合性。充分借助遥感与GIS等技术手段进行研究。  相似文献   

基于元胞模型的河道纵剖面调整动态模拟   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

黄翀  刘高焕 《地理研究》2006,25(2):342-349

纵剖面的调整是河道演化的重要内容,其对于河道整治及水沙灾害机理研究都具有重要意义。利用多年观测资料可以较为精确地分析和推断河道纵剖面的调整过程。但是,这种方法不能从过程机理上对纵剖面的调整进行模拟分析。而自然条件下河道边界条件的复杂性使得对河道纵剖面演化的物理过程模拟有很大困难。元胞自动机是一个时间、空间和状态都离散的动力模型,是研究复杂系统动态演化过程的有力工具。本文以黄河尾闾河道为例,利用一维元胞模型对河道纵剖面的调整进行动态模拟。模拟揭示了河道纵剖面在初始形态、不同水沙组合以及河道延伸等情况下的演化规律与趋势。  相似文献   

中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析   总被引：27，自引：1，他引：26  

吴玉鸣  李建霞 《地理科学》2006,26(4):385-391

全要素生产率(TFP)是一个国家或地区经济增长质量和技术进步、管理效率提高的重要标志,正确、科学测算TFP对区域经济增长和技术进步及政策研究非常重要。运用空间统计和空间计量经济学的空间自相关Moran指数、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型方法,基于2003年中国大陆31个省、直辖市和自治区的工业企业统计数据,对中国大陆省级区域工业全要素生产率进行了空间计量经济测算分析。结果发现,空间统计与空间计量经济学模型在测算我国省域工业全要素生产率中具有较好效果,利用这种方法测算的2003年中国大陆31个区域全要素生产率的实证结果比较符合工业生产率发展实际;在影响我国省域工业生产率的因素中,工业资本投入是造成工业经济增长率在东中西部地区之间和各个省域之间存在巨大差异的主要原因;劳动生产率水平偏低是制约我国省域工业生产率提高的主要瓶颈因素;2003年我国省域工业生产率增长是由资本和技术共同推动的。  相似文献   

Toward a more consistent evolution model for the local galactic disk     

H. Meusinger 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1994,315(4):279-290

Infall models for the evolution of the local galactic disk were studied and confronted with a large number of observational constraints from the solar vicinity, inclusive of the white dwarf luminosity function. The models are characterized as follows: 1. The key-functions (SFR, IMF, gas infall rate) are not prescribed by simple laws, but are directly derived from observational constraints. 2. A scatter in the metallicity at fixed age is considered which partly reflects inhomogeous chemical evolution. 3. Special attention is drawn to the internal consistency of the models. 4. In addition to infall of low-metallicity gas, metal-enriched outflows are allowed. The “best” model is characterized by a disk age of ≈︁ 12 Gyr, a SFR which is decreasing over the first half and is nearly constant over the second half of the disk evolution, and by a similar temporal run of the gas infall rate. Moderate metal-enriched outflow can not be excluded.  相似文献   

Review of methods for the detection and estimation of trends with emphasis on water quality applications     

Sylvia R. Esterby 《水文研究》1996,10(2):127-149

Methods for the detection and estimation of trends which are suitable for the type of data sets available from water quality and atmospheric deposition monitoring programmes are considered. Parametric and non-parametric methods which are based on the assumption of monotonic trend and which account for seasonality through blocking on season are described. The topics included are heterogeneity of trend, missing data, covariates, censored data, serial dependence and multivariate extensions. The basis for the non-parametric methods being the method of choice for current large data sets of short to moderate length is reviewed. A more general definition of trend as the component of gradual change over time is consistent with another group of methods and some examples are given. Spatial temporal data sets and longer temporal records are also briefly considered. A broad overview of the topic of trend analysis is given, with technicalities left to the references cited. The necessity of defining what is meant by trend in the context of the design and objectives of the programme is emphasized, as is the need to model the variability in the data more generally.  相似文献   

MODELLING RAINFALL-RUNOFF FROM LARGE CATCHMENT TO BASIN SCALE: THE GOULBURN VALLEY,VICTORIA     

S. YU. SCHREIDER  A. J. JAKEMAN  A. B. PITTOCK 《水文研究》1996,10(6):863-876

A lumped parameter dynamic rainfall-runoff model, IHACRES, is applied to the large upland area (more than 4500 km²) of the Goulburn Valley Basin, Victoria, Australia to predict streamflow under different climatic conditions. This paper presents the first evaluation of a rainfall–runoff model at large catchment scale, which is comprehensive in terms of the number of catchments investigated and the number of calibration and simulation periods used. The basin is subdivided into 12 catchments (from 100 to 700 km²), each of which is calibrated separately. High values of model efficiency and low bias are consistently obtained for different calibration sub-periods for all catchments in the basin. Simulation or so-called validation tests are used to select the best models for each catchment. This allows simulation of the water regime during long historical (approximately 90 year) periods when only climatological (rainfall and temperature) data were available. This procedure is extremely important for the estimation of the effect of climate variability and of the possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime in the region and, in particular, for supporting irrigation management of the basin. Analysis of a composite catchment (2417 km²) and its five separate subcatchments indicates that the information content in the rainfall–streamflow data is independent of catchment size. Dynamic modelling of the daily water balance at the macroscale is limited principally by the adequacy of the precipitation gauging network. When a good estimate of areal precipitation is available for a catchment, it is not necessary to consider subcatchment-scale variability for modelling if the only interest is the daily discharge and evaporation losses from the catchment.  相似文献   

LISEM: A SINGLE-EVENT,PHYSICALLY BASED HYDROLOGICAL AND SOIL EROSION MODEL FOR DRAINAGE BASINS. II: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,VALIDATION AND APPLICATION     

A. P. J. DE ROO  R. J. E. OFFERMANS  N. H. D. T. CREMERS 《水文研究》1996,10(8):1119-1126

A new hydrological and soil erosion model has been developed and tested: LISEM, the Limburg soil erosion model. The model uses physically based equations to describe interception, infiltration and soil water transport, storage in surface depressions, splash and flow detachment, transport capacity and overland and channel flow. From the validation results it is clear that, although the model has several advantages over other models, the results of LISEM 1.0 are far from perfect. Based on the sensitivity analysis and field observations, the main reasons for these differences seems to be the spatial and temporal variability of the soil hydraulic conductivity and the initial pressure head at the basin scale. Another reason for the differences between measured and simulated results is our lack or understanding of the theory of hydrological and soil erosion processes.  相似文献   

Equilibrium beach profile model for perched beaches     

M. Gonzlez  R. Medina  M. A. Losada 《Coastal Engineering》1999,36(4):777

A beach profile equilibrium model for perched beaches is presented. The model assumes that wave reflection at the seaward and leeward sides of the breakwater is the most important process that modifies Dean's equilibrium profile model for non-perched beaches. The influence of wave breaking over the submerged structure is also discussed. Several laboratory data sets are used to analyze the merit of the proposed model for describing the equilibrium condition of a perched beach. A good comparison is obtained. Results show that if the ratio between the water depth above the submerged structure, d, and the water depth at the toe of the structure, h_e, is large, d/h_e>0.5, only minor advance of the shoreline is achieved with the construction of a toe structure. A considerable advance is obtained for d/h_e less that 0.1. In these situations, however, resonant effects may result in an inefficient structure. The proposed model is used to provide an estimation for the required sand volume and the associated beach advance for the case of narrow breakwaters.  相似文献   

地质图形处理系统设计   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

萨贤春  门桂珍 《煤田地质与勘探》1997,25(2):21-24

介绍了地质图形计算机处理系统的系统功能、系统结构、图形数据库结构以及图形生成与编辑;讨论了在开发地质图形计算机辅助设计或绘图系统时,应如何体现专业特点,如何在数据中表达地质现象的地层和构造意义,如何在地质模型建立中融入专业人员的地质背景知识,以及怎样设计出实际有效的地质图形处理软件系统等问题。   相似文献