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41.
历史文献中的气象记录与气候变化定量重建方法 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
历史文献记载是研究古气候变化的主要代用证据之一,对于定量重建过去数千年的气候变化序列具有独特价值.本文分析了中国历史文献中气象记录的特点及主要内容,重点梳理了利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的基本方法,并列举了通过多源记载集成、多时段记录衔接重建过去2000年中国东中部地区温度与干湿变化序列的校准案例;旨在为客观提取气候变化信息、获取高信度的气候变化数据和进一步发展利用文献记载定量重建气候变化序列的方法提供参考依据.主要认识是:1)历史文献中的气象记录主要有4类:天气、气象灾害、物候与区域气候特征及其影响记载;定量重建气候序列的基本方法有:回归分析、物理模型、分等定级、频次统计、类比分析等,但各类记录的来源、格式、连续性、详略与定量化程度不一,导致利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的方法也各不相同.2)对根据多源记载或不同方法反演的代用记录进行集成,利用回归分析、方差匹配、记录影响趋势剔除等校准技术,加强多源数据的相互插补方法研究,可解决古代气象记录的漏、缺记问题,是重建连续气候变化序列的主要途径. 相似文献
42.
Camila Rodrigues Costa Cynthia Fernandes Pinto da Luz Ingrid Horák-Terra Plínio Barbosa de Camargo Uidemar Morais Barral Carlos Victor Mendonça-Filho Thamyres Sabrina Gonçalves Alexandre Christófaro Silva 《第四纪科学杂志》2023,38(1):61-75
The Cerrado biome is the second largest in Brazil, but the evolution of the Cerrado during the late Quaternary is not yet fully known. This study identifies paleoenvironmental changes during the last 23 000 years, based on a tropical mountain peatland record, in the Serra do Espinhaço Meridional in central-eastern Brazil. A multi-proxy approach was used that involved palynological analysis, stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N), geochemistry, radiocarbon dating and multivariate statistics derived from a peatland core from Rio Preto (Minas Gerais state). The study reveals a very humid and cold climate during the late Pleistocene, with an increase in temperature and decrease in humidity at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. During this period there was strong instability in the landscape (episodes of erosion). At the beginning of the Holocene there was a reduction in humidity with greater landscape stability. The current sub-humid climatic conditions seem to have been established in the mid-/late Holocene, with periods of landscape instability. Our findings agree with other Cerrado records that contradict previously established hypotheses, such as the Amazonian Refuge and the Pleistocene Arc. 相似文献