Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jan Šílený  Alexander Milev 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(8):1495-1513

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.  相似文献   

High precision locations of LP events on Mt. Etna: Reconstruction of the fluid-filled volume     

S. Gambino 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2006,50(4):663-674

During 1991–93 at Mount Etna, long-period (LP) events occurring in swarms characterized the evolution of the eruption. The presence of multiplets i.e. groups of events with similar waveform signatures, has been recognized within this activity. Traditional techniques for locating LP events do not allow obtaining reliable hypocenters, which have only succeeded in placing earthquakes in a roughly 1 km² area slightly east of the Mt. Etna Northeast Crater. Hypocenters have been relocated in two steps: the absolute location has been improved using Thurber’s code and a complex 3D velocity model; a highly precise relative location has been applied on multiplets to define the source geometry. 3D locations and high precision analysis suggest that during the 1991–93 eruption the resonator producing LP events was a part of the uppermost Northeast Crater conduit, measuring 210 meters in height and 45–50 meters in diameter.  相似文献   

Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Roger Pielke Jr.   《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):302-310

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has focused debate on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action on climate change. This refocusing has helped to move debate away from science of the climate system and on to issues of policy. However, a careful examination of the Stern Review's treatment of the economics of extreme events in developed countries, such as floods and tropical cyclones, shows that the report is selective in its presentation of relevant impact studies and repeats a common error in impacts studies by confusing sensitivity analyses with projections of future impacts. The Stern Review's treatment of extreme events is misleading because it overestimates the future costs of extreme weather events in developed countries by an order of magnitude. Because the Stern Report extends these findings globally, the overestimate propagates through the report's estimate of future global losses. When extreme events are viewed more comprehensively the resulting perspective can be used to expand the scope of choice available to decision makers seeking to grapple with future disasters in the context of climate change. In particular, a more comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of adaptation in any comprehensive portfolio of responses to climate change.  相似文献   

21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展   总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22  

胡宜昌  董文杰  何勇 《地球科学进展》2007,22(10):1066-1075

由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响，越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究，几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化，而且在全球变暖的大背景下，未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然，研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性，从模式模拟来看，目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性，不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异；而从观测分析来看，研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶，如果对更长时间作分析，结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发，结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展，最后简单地总结了这些进展，并提出了进一步研究的思路。   相似文献   

Investigating the amount of zeroing in modern sediments of River Danube, Austria     

Markus Fiebig  Frank Preusser 《Quaternary Geochronology》2007,2(1-4):143-149

Sediments attributed to flooding events of River Danube concerning the bleaching of the optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal were investigated. It is demonstrated that the OSL signal in both quartz and feldspar is not completely but differentially bleached in the sediment grains. Partial bleaching of the samples is clearly indicated by the scatter of equivalent dose determined for several individual single aliquots. It is also shown that residual ages in feldspars are significantly higher than those calculated for quartz. It is furthermore demonstrated that analysing measurement-time dependent equivalent dose estimates is not a suitable method to identify partial bleaching in the investigated sediment grains. However, the transport and deposition process of the investigated samples was probably disturbed by an artificial input of sediment, and this case study may thus not be representative of undisturbed high flood events in the past.  相似文献   

以海原断裂甘肃老虎山段为例浅析走滑断裂古地震记录的完整性——兼论古地震研究中的若干问题     

刘静徐锡伟  李岩峰冉勇康 《地质通报》2007,26(6):50-660

在简单介绍海原断裂老虎山段松山探槽点古地震工作的基础上,分析了制约走滑断裂上古地震记录完整性的因素。松山探槽点跨断裂开挖的2个探槽揭示颜色和粒度不同的地层互层的沉积序列呈近水平面状展布。在断裂带内地层发生错断、旋转和拖曳等变形现象。多个层位上的这种变形表明该点揭示了6次古地震事件。炭屑的~(14)C年龄限定了6次事件均发生在距今3500～3900年以来,其中最新的4次事件从老到新分别为0～410aAD、890～1000年之后不久、1440～1640 aAD和1990年景泰-天祝Mw5.8级历史地震。该序列及其他例子表明连续的、高沉积速率的微构造环境是走滑断裂上探槽选取的重要原则。  相似文献   

陕西关中及周边地区近500a来初夏旱涝事件初步分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

尹红  郭品文  刘洪滨  邵雪梅  LINDERHOLM Hans 《南京气象学院学报》2007,30(1):51-56

基于华山树轮宽度差值年表重建的陕西关中及周边地区近500a来的初夏干燥指数序列,对该地区初夏极端旱涝事件及其连续旱涝变化特征进行了初步分析.区域干燥指数与Palmer指数在变化上极为相似,可用于反映该地区的旱涝变化.结果表明:该地区近500a来初夏共发生18次极端干旱事件和11次极端洪涝事件,除公元1521年与历史文献记录的旱涝事件相反,公元1513年、1574年、1675年和1945年未发现历史记录外,其余年份均能找到相应记录;近500a来初夏存在9个显著的连续偏旱期和10个显著的连续偏涝期,并以16和19世纪发生的连续旱涝事件最为频繁,而17和18世纪发生的旱涝事件相对较少,20世纪发生的干旱事件明显多于洪涝事件.  相似文献   

太原气候变暖特征及主要极端天气气候事件变化研究     

张军  周晋红 《山西气象》2007,(3):21-24

近45a来，太原平川和山区年平均气温为明显上升趋势，夜间增温是太原气候变暖的一个重要特征。1986年、1993年分别为山区和平川年平均气温转折年份，山区从1985年开始冬季平均气温发生突变。近45a来，太原年降水量呈减少趋势，主要是夏、秋季降水减少造成。在气候变暖的背景下，太原平川和山区年暴雨日数变化平稳，高温和春旱发生频次在增加，山区夏旱也呈缓慢增加趋势；太原山区霜期明显缩短，初霜在推迟，终霜在提前。  相似文献   

东南极拉斯曼丘陵石榴斜长角闪岩中角闪石的~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar年龄及其地质意义          下载免费PDF全文

仝来喜  刘小汉  张连生  陈海泓  陈福坤  王彦斌  任留东 《极地研究》1998,10(3):4-14

本文对东南极拉斯曼丘陵出露的石榴斜长角闪岩中的角闪石进行了４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定,分别得到角闪石视年龄１５８６Ｍａ、１０１１～１０８０Ｍａ、７６１Ｍａ和５２９～５８２Ｍａ,角闪石坪年龄１０３６Ｍａ和５５４Ｍａ,角闪石Ａｒ－Ａｒ等时线年龄１０１０Ｍａ,这些同位素年龄证据,首次完整地记录了该区所经历的几乎所有构造变质热事件,为近几年国内外地质学家关于该区构造变质热事件争论的焦点问题,即晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件（Ｇｒｅｎｖｉｌｉａｎ）与早古生代的５００Ｍａ泛非事件（Ｐａｎ－Ａｆｒｉｃａｎ）孰轻孰重以及前者是否存在,提供了答案。角闪石的４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定结果表明,拉斯曼丘陵地区经历了复杂的多期变质演化历史,其原岩可能形成于早－中元古代,占主导地位的应该是晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件,而５００Ｍａ泛非事件则是晚期较强烈的变质热事件。  相似文献   

Relationship between global seismicity and solar activities     

Gui-Qing Zhang 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(4):495-500

The relations between sunspot numbers and earthquakes (M≧6), solar 10.7 cm radio flux and earthquakes, solar proton events and earthquakes have been analyzed in this paper. It has been found that: (1) Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity. Generally, the earthquake activities are relatively less during the peak value years of solar activity, some say, around the period when magnetic polarity in the solar polar regions is reversed. (2) the earthquake frequency in the minimum period of solar activity is closely related to the maximum annual means of sunspot numbers, the maximum annual means of solar 10.7 cm radio flux and solar proton events of a whole solar cycle, and the relation between earthquake and solar proton events is closer than others. (3) As judged by above interrelationship, the period from 1995 to 1997 will be the years while earthquake activities are frequent. In the paper, the simple physical discussion has been carried out. These results supported the exploration and studies of some researchers to a certain extent. This work is supported by Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (major item).  相似文献