THE UNDERSTANDING OF ENSO CYCLE MECHANISM AND ENSO POTENTIAL PREDICTION ABILITY          下载免费PDF全文

钱维宏 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1997,(1)

In recent years,the dynamic coupled models of ocean-atmosphere and statistical models havebeen used in routine operation for issuing long-lead forecasts.The dynamic coupled models consistof models with varying degrees of complexity,ranging from simplified coupled models of theshallow water to coupled general circulation models.During the period of 1980—1992,somemodels performed considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices ofENSO for lead time of 6 to 12 months.It seems that ENSO is predictable at least one year inadvance.However.nearly all the models have lost their skill of forecasting sea surface temperature(SST)changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific since 1992.It is a challenge not only to the dynamicmodels but also to the understanding of the ENSO cycle mechanism.This paper examines multipletime-space scales of the ocean-atmosphere interactions and potential prediction ability of ENSOevent by using data analysis and model study.  相似文献   

Groundwater discharge into lakes: A review of recent studies with particular regard to large saline lakes in central Asia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

I. S. Zekster 《International Journal of Salt Lake Research》1995,4(3):233-249

Groundwater discharge into lakes is one of the least studied components of their water and salt balance. Yet groundwater inflow determines in many cases the hydrochemical, thermal and hydrobiological regimes of lakes and affects the process of sediment accumulation. Modern methods for quantitatively assessing groundwater discharge into lakes are considered. The results of studies of the groundwater contribution to the water and salt balance of Lakes Baikal, Balkhash, Issyk-Kul, the Caspian Sea and some other lakes are given. International experience in studying ground and lake water interaction is briefly characterized.  相似文献   

开展中国大陆水圈演化研究，保护人类生存环境   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张宗祜  任福弘  费瑾  朱延华 《地球学报》1995,16(1):22-27

中国大陆水圈是地球水圈的重要组成部分。青藏高原的阶段性急剧隆起和全新世以来的持续上升，控制着中国大陆水圈的自然演化方向和速率。中国大陆水圈演化在研究地球陆地水圈方面有其特殊意义。近几十年来，随着国民经济建设的发展及人类工程技术活动的加强，导致地表河流流量及入海水量减少、地下水位大面积下降和地面沉降、地表水和地下水水质恶化、海水入侵地下水含水层等等，这些都积极地改变着中国大陆水圈的自然状态，从而影响人类的生存环境。因此，开展中国大陆水圈演化研究──中国大陆水圈量与质的演化过程、中国大陆水圈与其它圈层间的相互作用、人类社会经济活动对中国大陆水圈演化影响与反馈、水环境演化趋势及资源环境效应预测等，不仅是我国地球科学与国际研究接轨的需要，也是保护人类生存环境最基本的重大课题。  相似文献   

On the seasonal cycle of stratospheric planetary waves     

R. Alan Plumb 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,130(2-3):233-242

Quasi-stationary planetary waves exhibit different seasonal behaviour in the two winter stratospheres. Whereas, in a climatological sense, wave amplitudes are large throughout northern winter, in the Southern Hemisphere there is a climatological minimum in midwinter. It is suggested here that the southern hemisphere behaviour is basically linear, the midwinter minimum arising from the opacity of the strong westerlies of southern midwinter to stationary wave propagation. On the other hand, it is further suggested that, in the northern hemisphere winter, the westerlies are prevented from becoming so strong (in a climatological sense) by the action of the waves themselves on the means state and that the penetration of large-scale waves into the midwinter northern stratosphere thus depends on a nonlinear feedback process. Preliminary tests of this hypothesis are conducted, using a highly truncated beta-plane model of the stratospheric flow.  相似文献   

Internal gravity wave selection in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed by the MU radar: Preliminary results     

Manabu D. Yamanaka  Shoichiro Fukao  Hiromasa Matsumoto  Toru Sato  Toshitaka Tsuda  Susumu Kato 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,130(2-3):481-495

Marked wavelike variations of the lower stratospheric wind observed on 7–10 May, 1985 by an MST radar in Japan (by the MU radar) are analyzed assuming that they are induced by monochromatic internal inertio-gravity waves. These variations are mainly composed of two modes (periods: 22 and 24 hours), both of which have zonal phase velocities (C _X ) slower than the mean westerly wind (). A statistical analysis of the zonal phase velocity shows thatC _X above andC _X below the tropopause jet stream, which is considered to be a vivid proof of wave selection due to the tropospheric mean flow and upward wave emission from the tropopause jet. A comparison between the MU radar results and routine meteorological observations leads to the conclusion that the marked waves appear when the jet stream takes a maximum wind speed.  相似文献   

A note on the general concept of wave breaking for Rossby and gravity waves   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

M. E. McIntyre  T. N. Palmer 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1985,123(6):964-975

A recently proposed general definition of wave breaking is further discussed, in order to deal with some points on which misunderstanding appears to have arisen. As with surface and internal gravity waves, the classification of Rossby waves into breaking and not breaking is a generic classification based on dynamical considerations, and not a statement about any unique signature or automatically recognizable shape. Nor is it a statement about passive tracers uncorrelated with potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces. A strong motivation for the definition is that proofs of the nonacceleration theorem of wave, mean-flow interaction theory rely, explicitly or implicitly, on a hypothesis that the waves do not break in the sense envisaged.The general definition refers to the qualitative behaviour of a certain set of material contours, namely those, and only those, which would undulate reversibly, with small slopes, under the influence of the waves' restoring mechanism, in those circumstances for which linearized, nondissipative wave theory is a self-consistent approximation to nonlinear reality. The waves' restoring mechanism depends upon the basic-state vertical potential density gradient in the case of gravity waves, and upon the basic-state isentropic gradient of potential vorticity in the case of Rossby waves. In the usual linearized theory of planetary scale Rossby waves on a zonal shear flow, the relevant material contours lie along latitude circles when undisturbed.  相似文献   

植物营养元素的含量和δ~(13)C值随海拔而变化的特征及营养元素相互作用对碳同位素分馏作用的影响   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

朴河春  朱建明  朱书法  余登利  冉景丞 《地球科学进展》2004,(Z1)

为了研究植物营养元素的含量和δ~(13)C值随海拔而变化的相关关系,沿着海拔450 m的贵州茂兰至海拔1330 m的贵州安顺一线,采集和分析研究了C_3植物——小果蔷薇(R.cymosa Tratt)的叶片。分析结果表明,植物叶片中营养元素含量随着海拔的上升而产生的变化是:氮、磷和钾的含量会在增高,而钙和镁的含量却会降低。植物叶片的δ~(13)C值会增大,其变幅为 2.4‰/1000m。  相似文献   

Three-dimensional nonlinear analysis for seismic soil–pile-structure interaction     

B. K. Maheshwari  K. Z. Truman  M. H. El Naggar  P. L. Gould 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(4):343-356

A three-dimensional method of analysis is presented for the seismic response of structures constructed on pile foundations. An analysis is formulated in the time domain and the effects of material nonlinearity of soil on the seismic response are investigated. A subsystem model consisting of a structure subsystem and a pile-foundation subsystem is used. Seismic response of the system is found using a successive-coupling incremental solution scheme. Both subsystems are assumed to be coupled at each time step. Material nonlinearity is accounted for by incorporating an advanced plasticity-based soil model, HiSS, in the finite element formulation. Both single piles and pile groups are considered and the effects of kinematic and inertial interaction on seismic response are investigated while considering harmonic and transient excitations. It is seen that nonlinearity significantly affects seismic response of pile foundations as well as that of structures. Effects of nonlinearity on response are dependent on the frequency of excitation with nonlinearity causing an increase in response at low frequencies of excitation.  相似文献   

Effect of soil stabilization on audible band railway ground vibration     

Robert Hildebrand 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(5):411-424

Although railway-generated ground vibrations usually have greater energy levels at lower frequencies, vibrations in the audible range above 20 Hz can nevertheless be relevant for secondary noise problems in buildings. One countermeasure is soil stabilization under the track embankment. While effective at low frequencies, a potential side effect is amplification in some audible bands. Presented here are both experimental and theoretical assessments of the countermeasure in the audible bands. The main innovation is the treatment of an infinite periodic track–ground system, using a transfer matrix approach with a repeating element including the rail, pad, sleeper, and an underlying half-space (ballast and soil). Excitation in this band is attributed to rail and wheel roughness. The model makes successful predictions when the half-space properties are allowed to be frequency-dependent such that the dispersion of the surface wave matches that in the actual layered earth (including ballast and underlying soil layers). The field measurements are also unique in that both before and after evaluation of the countermeasure was possible.  相似文献   

Salt tectonics,a controlling factor on the development of the Marseilles and Grand-Rhone sedimentary ridges,Gulf of Lions,western Mediterranean Sea     

Antonio Tadeu dos Reis  Christian Gorini  Alain Mauffret  Wiktor Weibull 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2004,336(2):143-150

The Marseilles (also called Marseilles/Planier) and Grand Rhone sedimentary ridges, offshore the Gulf of Lions, western Mediterranean Sea, are generated by sediment spillover funnelled by the Marseilles and Grand-Rhone canyons, respectively. We show that the Marseilles and Grand-Rhone canyon directions are tectonically conditioned by Plio-Quaternary salt-induced sea-floor relief. Overburden extension in the area created an assemblage of listric faults running parallel to the strike of the continental margin. This salt-induced topography resulted in accentuated fault scarps impacting the sea-floor morphology and forcing submarine valleys to deflect to the east. Gravity-induced extension equally influenced the morphological pattern of the valley overbanking deposits. Sediment spillover occurred on both flanks of the canyons, but because active faulting generated space accommodation for overflow deposits, it inhibited the development of typical levee morphology along the canyons' left flanks. To cite this article: A.T. dos Reis, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).  相似文献