用方差分析法预测濮阳市冬小麦播种期降水量趋势   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王春玲 崔力王树文  李改琴时凤云刘平  董建设 《气象与环境科学》2007,30(B09):123-125

使用1971--2000年濮阳市冬小麦播种期降水量资料，采用方差分析法，按不同长度周期进行排列，求出各个周期的F值，进行F检验定出第一周期，其位相值为第一周期的第一次值。将原序列减去第一周期的位相值作为新序列1，对新序列1再进行不同长度周期排列，求出各个周期的F值，再进行F检验定出第二周期。对第一、二周期进行稳定性检查，采用经稳定后的第一、二周期的第2次值各自外推，求出预报初值，计算出剩余方差，建立预报方程，进而可计算出降水量预报值。经回代检验，历史拟合率为30／30=100％；2001—2005年试报准确率为4／5=80％。  相似文献   

Receiver Functions from Autoregressive Deconvolution   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Qingju Wu  Yonghua Li  Ruiqing Zhang  Rongsheng Zeng 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(11):2175-2192

Summary Receiver functions can be estimated by minimizing the square errors of Wiener filter in time-domain or spectrum division in frequency domain. To avoid the direct calculation of auto-correlation and cross-correlation coefficients in Toeplitz equation or of auto-spectrum and cross-spectrum in spectrum division equation as well as empirically choosing a damping parameter, autoregressive deconvolution is presented to isolate receiver function from three-component teleseismic P waveforms. The vertical component of teleseismic P waveform is modeled by an autoregressive model, which can be forward and backward, predicted respectively. The optimum length of the autoregressive model is determined by the Akaike criterion. By minimizing the square errors of forward and backward predicting filters, autoregressive filter coefficients can be recursively solved, and receiver function is also estimated in the similar procedure. Both synthetic and real data tests show that autoregressive deconvolution is an effective method to isolate receiver function from teleseismic P waveforms in time-domain.  相似文献   

Real-time reservoir management: A multiscale adaptive optimization and control approach     

L. Saputelli  M. Nikolaou  M. J. Economides 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(1):61-96

We propose a decision-making approach for optimizing the profitability of hydrocarbon reservoirs. The proposed approach addresses the overwhelming complexity of the overall optimization problem by suggesting an oilfield operations hierarchy that entails different time scales. We discuss system identification, optimization, and control that are appropriate at various levels of the hierarchy and capitalize on the abilities of permanently instrumented and remotely actuated fields. Optimization is performed in real-time and is based on feedback. We provide details on real-time identification of hybrid models and their use at the scheduling and supervisory control levels. Case studies using field-calibrated simulation data demonstrate the applicability and value of the proposed approach. Directions for future development are given.  相似文献   

Refinement of predictive reaeration equations for a typical Indian river     

Ramakar Jha  C. S. P. Ojha  K. K. S. Bhatia 《水文研究》2001,15(6):1047-1060

Dissolved oxygen mass balance has been computed for different reaches of River Kali in western Uttar Pradesh (India) to obtain the reaeration coefficient (K₂). A total of 270 field data sets have been collected during the period from March 1999 to February 2000. Eleven most popular predictive equations, used for reaeration prediction and utilizing mean stream velocity, bed slope, flow depth, friction velocity and Froude number, have been tested for their applicability in the River Kali using data generated during field survey. The K₂ values computed from these predictive equations have been compared with the K₂ values observed from dissolved oxygen balance measurements in the field. The performance of predictive equations have been evaluated using error estimation, namely standard error (SE), normal mean error (NME), mean multiplicative error (MME) and correlation statistics. The equations developed by Smoot and by Cadwallader and McDonnell showed comparatively better results. Moreover, a refined predictive equation has been developed using a least‐squares algorithm for the River Kali that minimizes error estimates and improves correlation between observed and computed reaeration coefficients. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stable inverse deconvolution of magnetic data     

Fabio Caratori Tontini 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,162(3):725-735

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On the determination of magnetic grain-size distributions of superparamagnetic particle ensembles using the frequency dependence of susceptibility at different temperatures   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Valera P. Shcherbakov  Karl Fabian 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,162(3):736-746

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地面磁梯度测量在勘查地下污水管道中的应用     

任秀艳  杜晓娟  孙瑞雪  逄硕  王江  高超 《世界地质(英文版)》2014,(3)

利用在辽宁某地区实测的垂直磁梯度数据,采用欧拉反褶积方法对地下异常情况进行处理和解释。正演研究表明,理论计算获得的磁梯度比实测磁总场的灵敏度高,结合磁梯度数据和欧拉反演方法可以进行较为复杂地形的解释。通过将计算获得的磁梯度异常与实测磁梯度异常对比,后者对地质体的分辨率更高。对地面垂直磁梯度数据进行反演,结果表明：该方法能够准确地确定地下污水管道的边界和埋深。  相似文献   

星敏感器/GNSS定姿系统的联合非线性预测滤波算法     

张智斌  钱山  张力军  李恒年 《测绘学报》2011,(Z1):137-144

提出一种联合式非线性预测滤波算法,解决该系统在姿态动力学模型误差非高斯分布条件下的多敏感器信息融合问题。从算法结构和估计准则两个方面证明非线性预测滤波(NPF)与Kalman滤波的等效性,分析联合式NPF的算法流程,讨论模型误差方差矩阵的计算方法,给出加权系数矩阵的设计准则;介绍星敏感器和全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)的定姿原理,推导星敏感器/GNSS组合姿态确定系统的联合式NPF滤波模型,分析系统的算法实现流程;进行数值仿真试验,结果表明联合式NPF算法融合NPF与联邦滤波的优良品质,可有效解决姿态动力学模型误差非高斯分布条件下无陀螺姿态确定系统的多敏感器信息融合问题。  相似文献   

山东夏季降水量场预测模型的改进及预测效果检验     

胡桂芳  孟祥新  汤子东 《气象》2013,39(9):1210-1216

本文对2002年建立的山东夏季降水量场预测模型进行了多方面的改进。预测因子的选取在原来以常规100、500hPa或海温状态场的关键区域平均值基础上,增加了能表征天气系统月际演变趋势及区域环流总体特征的遥相关型环流指数,建模资料的选取结合了环流突变的气候背景,以1977—2008年资料进行建模,建模方案在原来纯数学分析的基础上,增加了着重考虑因子物理意义的建模方案,用2009—2011年实况资料对两种建模方案及2002年建模方案的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明,改进后预测模型较旧预测模型的预测效果有较大提高,而物理统计预测模型对降水的空间分布也具有较好的预测效果。  相似文献   

The point-spread function for airborne radiometry     

Maurice Craig 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(8):1003-1013

Pointwise division in the Fourier domain can be used to deconvolve the effects of aircraft altitude upon gridded, two-dimensional, radiometric count data. The appropriate divisor function, expressed as a triple integral by Gunn, is developed as a convergent series suitable for its numerical evaluation. For various flying heights, graphs display in cross-section the corresponding, radially symmetric, divisor function.  相似文献