Stochastic perturbation analysis of groundwater flow. Spatially variable soils,semi-infinite domains and large fluctuations     

G. Christakos  C. T. Miller  D. Oliver 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(3):213-239

As is well known, a complete stochastic solution of the stochastic differential equation governing saturated groundwater flow leads to an infinite hierarchy of equations in terms of higher-order moments. Perturbation techniques are commonly used to close this hierarchy, using power-series expansions. These methods are applied by truncating the series after a finite number of terms, and products of random gradients of conductivity and head potential are neglected. Uncertainty regarding the number or terms required to yield a sufficiently accurate result is a significant drawback with the application of power series-based perturbation methods for such problems. Low-order series truncation may be incapable of representing fundamental characteristics of flow and can lead to physically unreasonable and inaccurate solutions of the stochastic flow equation. To support this argument, one-dimensional, steady-state, saturated groundwater flow is examined, for the case of a spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity field. An ordinary power-series perturbation method is used to approximate the mean head, using second-order statistics to characterize the conductivity field. Then an interactive perturbation approach is introduced, which yields improved results compared to low-order, power-series perturbation methods for situations where strong interactions exist between terms in such approximations. The interactive perturbation concept is further developed using Feynman-type diagrams and graph theory, which reduce the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance functions. Both theoretical and practical advantages of diagrammatic solutions are discussed; these include the study of bounded domains and large fluctuations.  相似文献   

Monthly suspended sediment load prediction using artificial intelligence: testing of a new random subspace method     

Viet-Ha Nhu  Khabat Khosravi  James R. Cooper  Mahshid Karimi  Ozgur Kisi  Binh Thai Pham 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(12):2116-2127

ABSTRACT

The predictive capability of a new artificial intelligence method, random subspace (RS), for the prediction of suspended sediment load in rivers was compared with commonly used methods: random forest (RF) and two support vector machine (SVM) models using a radial basis function kernel (SVM-RBF) and a normalized polynomial kernel (SVM-NPK). Using river discharge, rainfall and river stage data from the Haraz River, Iran, the results revealed: (a) the RS model provided a superior predictive accuracy (NSE = 0.83) to SVM-RBF (NSE = 0.80), SVM-NPK (NSE = 0.78) and RF (NSE = 0.68), corresponding to very good, good, satisfactory and unsatisfactory accuracies in load prediction; (b) the RBF kernel outperformed the NPK kernel; (c) the predictive capability was most sensitive to gamma and epsilon in SVM models, maximum depth of a tree and the number of features in RF models, classifier type, number of trees and subspace size in RS models; and (d) suspended sediment loads were most closely correlated with river discharge (PCC = 0.76). Overall, the results show that RS models have great potential in data poor watersheds, such as that studied here, to produce strong predictions of suspended load based on monthly records of river discharge, rainfall depth and river stage alone.  相似文献   

风云四号气象卫星地面测距系统精度改进技术     

贾耀红  任立清  郭强 《气象科技》2020,48(5):630-634

风云四号静止气象卫星(FY-4)地面测距系统用于获得分布在不同地方的5个地面站到卫星的精确距离,进而利用得到的距离数据确定并预报卫星的轨道和位置,所以测距精度是影响卫星轨道和位置确定精度的主要因素。本文根据测距系统工作的原理及过程,分析影响测距精度的误差来源,从测距体制、站址坐标测量、地面设备时延测量、转发器时延测量、大气传输时延测量和各站时间同步几个方面分析了风云四号测距系统为了提高测距精度采取的相应的技术手段。  相似文献   

岩溶坝区透水参数的随机模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张贵金  徐卫亚 《水文地质工程地质》2003,30(4):19-25

岩溶坝区的渗透特性受高应力场的作用,使其固有的非均质各向异性更趋复杂,采用确定性的方法不能准确的描述其本质特性。本文在对岩溶坝区透水性随机场进行分析的基础上,提出了渗透随机性的数学描述。考察岩溶坝区主要的两场作用,即渗流与应力场的耦合。基于Taylor随机有限元建立了渗流应力耦合的随机微分方程格式,并对耦合随机模型反演求解渗透参数提出了思路。  相似文献   

综合小波分析与分形方法进行弱磁异常识别   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

耿喜哲  张春华 《物探与化探》2002,26(2):126-130,125

利用小波分析塔式算法对单一分形模型数据进行处理,结合“随机共振”理论,对高精度弱磁异常中的噪声和误差进行有效的分析评价,依据趋势分析方法获得的剩余磁异常,提出“加窗移动”最小二乘方法对应用非整数阶微积分的布郎运动正态随机行走进行控制,为高精度弱磁异常的有效识别提供有益的指导。  相似文献   

水系形成与发展的元胞自动机模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

张俊勇  陈立  吴华林  张福然 《水科学进展》2007,18(5):695-700

河流水系的形成是在一定地质、地形、气候等条件下,水流自由发展的结果,具有自组织临界性。采用元胞自动机模型,对水系自组织形成的随机过程进行了模拟。通过改变地质、地形、气候等条件,模拟了与自然水系相吻合的多种河流水系。结合水槽实际,模拟了与水槽试验结果相似的水系形成。并通过概化形式,模拟了黄河源头东昆仑阿拉克湖地区第四纪水系演化过程,取得了良好的模拟效果。  相似文献   

Numerical analysis for random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

LIU ZhiQiang    LAI YuanMing  ZHANG MingYi & ZHANG XueFu State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering  Cold  Arid Regions Environmental  Engineering Research Institute  Chi- nese Academy of Sciences  Lanzhou  China  School of Civil Engineering  Lanzhou Jiao Tong University  Lanzhou  China  Chongqing Jiao Tong University  Chongqing  China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(3):404-410

The stochastic finite element equations for random temperature are obtained using the first-order per-turbation technique taking into account the random thermal properties and boundary condition, based on heat transfer variational principle. The local average method for 2-D is used to discretize random fields. Then, the random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions are investigated on condi-tion that the thermal properties and boundary condition are taken as random fields, respectively, by using the program, which is written by the methods. The expected value of temperature field and the standard deviation of the temperature field of embankment in cold regions are obtained and analyzed.  相似文献   

Utilisation of the image analysis method for the detection of the morphological anisotropy of calcite grains in marble     

Boguslaw Obara  Alena Kožušníková 《Computational Geosciences》2007,11(4):275-281

This paper presents the development and utilisation of an automated image processing algorithm for detection and analysis of grains. Using optical polarising microscopy, a set of colored images are collected from an area on a thin section. A filtering operation, using rotation of a morphological alternating sequence filter (based on a structuring element), is used to remove twinning features within individual grains. Filtering is followed by the watershed segmentation technique to determine grain boundaries. The method is used for the identification of calcite grains in marble and the subsequent analysis of morphological anisotropy.  相似文献   

Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Fuzzy calibration (2)     

B. G. Hankin  K. J. Beven 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1998,12(6):397-412

Part 1 of this study assessed the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT) applied an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. Several of the RPT models that were used predicted the mixing behaviour of the tracer in the complex channel flow to within an acceptable accuracy. If there is no uniqueness in the model structure which can be used to represent the true system to within the limitations of the available observations, then this implies an inherent degree of ambiguity in our knowledge of the physically based model structure. This suggests that we should be less forthright in the optimisation of each individual model structure, and perhaps investigate more of the parameter combinations for each model which yield feasible simulations of the system. An alternative fuzzy calibration technique is introduced which avoids the optimisation process and takes account of uncertainties in the model structure, parameter sets and observed data in prediction.  相似文献   

基于随机森林的中小跨径公路梁桥双柱墩地震易损性模型     

鲁冠亚  王克海  邱文华  张秉哲 《地震工程与工程振动》2022,42(1):94-103

为准确建立线路中小跨径梁桥桥墩的地震易损性模型,采用统计工具得到某山区高速公路桥梁双柱墩的结构、几何和材料特性的概率分布,由拉丁超立方体抽样生成桥墩属性数据集,建立了参数化的有限元模型.通过Pushover分析和基于非弹性需求谱的能力谱方法获取双柱墩的地震需求和抗震性能数据点,提出由随机森林(RF)模型建立桥墩地震易损...  相似文献