Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology     

H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Studies in the U.K.: Source Specification Problems of Intraplate Seismicity     

R. M. W. Musson 《Natural Hazards》1997,15(2-3):105-119

Although the U.K. is in an area of only low to moderate seismicity, the seismic hazard is sufficient to pose a threat to sensitive structures such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities. In quantifying the level of hazard by conventional probabilistic methodology, however, some problems arise in attempting to interpret earthquake data in terms of geological structure and faults. In the U.K., not only is it impossible to identify any demonstrably active faults, but also it is extremely difficult to discern any relationship between the pattern of seismicity and local or regional geological structure.This study discusses the use of two zonation approaches which complement each other in such a way that the general character and trend of seismicity is preserved. In one approach, the zonation is informed by the structural geology, where possible; geological zonation is avoided if it produces sources with heterogeneous seismicity. In the other approach, the record of past earthquakes is divided up into very small zones around individual epicentres or groups of epicentres, the size of each zone usually being proportional to the uncertainty in the epicentral determination of the appropriate event. This zonation preserves an observed tendency of some British earthquakes to repeat themselves. It is suggested that, in intraplate areas such as the U.K., it is often inappropriate to attempt to model individual fault sources. No faults in the U.K. are provably active. Because an earthquake of moderate size can occur on a very short fault segment, it is impractical to restrict fault modelling to major features. Even the two largest U.K. faults, suspected to be active, pose problems in attributing historical seismicity to them as distinct features.  相似文献   

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval     

Federico Murrone  Fabio Rossi  Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.  相似文献   

地质速率计—矿物氧扩散的应用     

傅斌  郑永飞 《地球科学进展》1997,12(5):428-433

概述了同位素封闭体系内的矿物氧扩散和同位素交换机制及其在地质速率计上的应用。火成岩从高温冷却或变质岩从高峰主质温度冷却过程中，由于冷却速度不同，扩散作用导致的矿物晶体内部及晶粒间氧同位素再平衡也有所不同。通过实测岩石中各组成矿物氧同位素比值，模式含量和颗粒半径，据矿物氧扩散和同位素交换模型，可以估算出岩石的冷却速率。  相似文献   

金矿床地球化学异常模式研究的新进展   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

李惠 《地质与勘探》1997,33(2):42-47

论述了近十年来金矿床地球化学异常模式研究的新进展，９０年代以前研究和建立了石英脉和蚀变岩型金矿地球化学异常模式，９０年代以来，研究和建立了中国主要类型金矿床地球化学导航异常模式，热液金矿床和原生叠加晕理想模式，金矿床包裹体气晕，离子晕及其叠加晕理想模式。  相似文献   

Sensitivity of a physically based method for terrain interpolation to initial conditions and its conditioning on stream location     

Salvatore Grimaldi  Vanessa Teles  Rafael L. Bras 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(5):587-597

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Three‐dimensional flow modelling and sediment transport in the River Klarälven     

Bijan Dargahi 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(7):821-852

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中国稻田甲烷产生和排放研究 Ⅱ.模式研究和减排措施     

任万辉  许黎  王振会  M.A.K.Khalil  R.A.Rasmussen 《气象》2004,30(7):3-7

主要介绍了近 2 0年来稻田甲烷排放的模式研究和排放量的估算以及减少稻田甲烷排放的措施。数值模式是估算稻田甲烷排放量的一条有效途径 ,模式的研究现在正处于发展阶段。介绍了几个主要的模型 ,既有物理过程模型也有经验模型。年排放量的估算范围为 6 79～ 4 1 4Tg ,随着技术的发展和大量实验的进行估算值的精度正得到不断的提高。减排措施是减少稻田甲烷排放的必要手段 ,但是目前的减排技术均处于研究阶段 ,应用还不成熟  相似文献   

Numerical simulations for coupled rock deformation and gas leak flow in parallel coal seams   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Peide Sun> 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2004,22(1):1-17

Based on the new viewpoint of interaction mechanics for solid and gas, gas leakage in parallel deformable coal seams can be understood. That is, under the action of varied geophysical fields, the methane gas flow in a double deformable coal seam can be essentially considered to be compressible with time-dependent and mixed permeation and diffusion through a pore-cleat deformable, heterogeneous and anisotropic medium. From this new viewpoint, coupled mathematical models for coal seam deformation and gas leak flow in parallel coal seams were formulated and the numerical simulations for slow gas emission from the parallel coal seams are presented. It is found that coupled models might be close to reality. Meanwhile, a coupled model for solid deformation and gas leak flow can be applied to the problems of gas leak flow including mining engineering, gas drainage engineering and mining safety engineering in particular the prediction of the safe range using protective layer mining where coal and gas outbursts can efficiently be prevented. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Evidence for Neotethys rooted within the Vardar suture zone from the Voras Massif, northernmost Greece   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sally A. M. Brown  Alastair H. F. Robertson   《Tectonophysics》2004,381(1-4):143

Three conflicting models are currently proposed for the location and tectonic setting of the Eurasian continental margin and adjacent Tethys ocean in the Balkan region during Mesozoic–Early Tertiary time. Model 1 places the Eurasian margin within the Rhodope zone relatively close to the Moesian platform. A Tethyan oceanic basin was located to the south bordering a large “Serbo-Pelagonian” microcontinent. Model 2 correlates an integral “Serbo-Pelagonian” continental unit with the Eurasian margin and locates the Tethys further southwest. Model 3 envisages the Pelagonian zone and the Serbo-Macedonian zone as conjugate continental units separated by a Tethyan ocean that was sutured in Early Tertiary time to create the Vardar zone of northern Greece and former Yugoslavia. These published alternatives are tested in this paper based on a study of the tectono-stratigraphy of a completely exposed transect located in the Voras Mountains of northernmost Greece. The outcrop extends across the Vardar zone, from the Pelagonian zone in the west to the Serbo-Macedonian zone in the east.Within the Voras Massif, six east-dipping imbricate thrust sheets are recognised. Of these, Units 1–4 correlate with the regional Pelagonian zone in the west (and related Almopias sub-zone). By contrast, Units 5–6 show a contrasting tectono-stratigraphy and correlate with the Paikon Massif and the Serbo-Macedonian zone to the east. These units form a stack of thrust sheets, with Unit 1 at the base and Unit 6 at the top. Unstacking these thrust sheets places ophiolitic units between the Pelagonian zone and the Serbo-Macedonian zone, as in Model 3. Additional implications are, first, that the Paikon Massif cannot be seen as a window of Pelagonian basement, as in Model 1, and, secondly, Jurassic andesitic volcanics of the Paikon Massif locally preserve a gneissose continental basement, ruling out a recently suggested origin as an intra-oceanic arc.We envisage that the Almopias (Vardar) ocean rifted in Triassic time, followed by seafloor spreading. The Almopias ocean was consumed beneath the Serbo-Macedonian margin in Jurassic time, generating subduction-related arc volcanism in the Paikon Massif and related units. Ophiolites were emplaced onto the Pelagonian margin in the west and covered by Late Jurassic (pre-Kimmeridgian) conglomerates. Other ophiolitic rocks formed within the Vardar zone (Ano Garefi ophiolite, Unit 4) in latest Jurassic–Early Cretaceous time and were not deformed until Early Tertiary time. The Vardar zone finally sutured in the Early Tertiary creating the present imbricate thrust structure of the Voras Mountains.  相似文献