Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

A. McGarr 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(3-4):467-489

Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies where _a is the apparent stress and is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM ₀. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM ₀, depends quite strongly onM ₀ for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant , larger events correspond to larger _a as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality _a / 0.06 has general validity, then measurements of _a =µE _a /M ₀, where is the modulus of rigidity andE _a is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter.  相似文献   

The upper mantle structure of the yakutian kimberlite province,eastern Russia     

V. F. Uarov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(2):311-318

Deep seismic sounding in the region of the Mirnyi kimberlite field indicates that the boundary velocity of the uppermost mantle is elevated (v _b=8.6–8.8 km/sec) and extremely variable near the Mir kimberlite pipe. These velocity heterogeneities are probably associated with the kimberlite magmatism and may be useful in the identification of other kimberlite fields.  相似文献   

地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法     

罗兰格 《华北地震科学》1994,(3)

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。  相似文献   

Seismic hazard of Egypt   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. El-Sayed  R. Wahlströ;m  O. Kulhánek 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):247-259

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.  相似文献   

Deep structure of the Central Alps in the light of recent seismic data     

H. Laubscher 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1994,83(2):237-248

The deep seismic reflection traverses across the Central Alps (NFP 20, ECORS-CROP) contain a new set of data on the lower crust which has been interpreted in different ways. One currently fashionable model depicts the European lower crust (ELC) as gently dipping below the Adriatic crust. However, this model requires that an observed sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is due to the non-transmission of organized seismic energy through the complex upper crust. This explanation is questioned as other reflections in this and similarly complex areas are recorded, and as the same sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is observed on all seismic lines for a length of 300 km. A tectonic — metamorphic cause appears to more satisfactorily explain the obeservations, and therefore an alternative model combining surface and deep geophysical data is proposed. It consists of three mutually largely decoupled tectonic levels. (1) The shallow obducted part or lid, bounded at its base by the combined Late Miocene Jura and Lombardic basal thrusts. Estimates of shortening based on balanced sections are at least about 100 km. (2) The intermediate level between the brittle-ductile transition and the top of the subducted mantle. It contains a stack of lower crust imbrications (with a minor admixture of upper mantle) accommodated by (inducted into) the ductile middle crust. Estimates of shortening based on area balancing are again of the order of slightly more than 100 km. (3) The subducted upper mantle, for which there are no reflection data.In the Central Alps the Late Miocene phase was dextrally transpressive, producing flower structures at the shallow level (External Massifs); the stacks of lower crust imbrications at the intermediate level may be the equivalent of the External Massifs at that level. Inverted flower structures of the subducted mantle are possible, but no detailed data are available.  相似文献   

Molecular and bulk isotopic analyses of organic matter in marls of the Mulhouse Basin (Tertiary, Alsace, France)     

Hollander DJ  Sinninghe Damste JS  Hayes JM  de Leeuw JW  Huc AY 《Organic Geochemistry》1993,20(8):1253-1263

Contents of 13C in kerogens and carbonates in 21 samples from a core of the MAX borehole, Mulhouse Evaporite Basin, range from -27.3 to -23.5 and -3.7 to -1.8% vs PDB, respectively. Organic nitrogen in the same samples is enriched in 15N relative to atmospheric N2 by 12.2-15.7%. Hydrogen indices and delta values for kerogens vary systematically with facies, averaging 493 mg HC/g Corg and -25.7% in the most saline facies (dominated by inputs from aquatic sources) and 267 mg HC/g Corg and -23.7% in the least saline facies (50/50 aquatic/terrigenous). Values of delta were measured for individual aliphatic hydrocarbons from three samples representing three different organic facies. For all samples, terrigenous inputs were unusually rich in 13C, the estimated delta value for bulk terrigenous debris, apparently derived partly from CAM plants, being -22.5%. In the most saline facies, isotopic evidence indicates the mixing of 13C-depleted products of photosynthetic bacteria with 13C-enriched products of halotolerant eukaryotic algae. At lower salinities, a change in the producer community is marked by a decrease in the 13C content of algal lipids. The content of 13C in algal lipids increases in the least saline facies, due either to succession of different organisms or to decreased concentrations of dissolved CO2.  相似文献   

福建石炭纪岩相古地理分析   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

吴岐  郑云钦 《福建地质》1993,12(4):300-319

笔者总结了福建省石炭纪生物地层与岩石地层的研究成果,提出了生物地层与岩石地层的划分对比。在详尽的相分析基础上对该纪地层进行了相系、相、亚相及微相的划分,并按“优势相”的原则分期编制了林地期、黄龙期及船山期的岩相古地理图。笔者采用“相、层、位”控矿观点对石炭纪的矿产成因及成矿规律作了探讨。  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines     

Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.  相似文献   

南海海盆区莫霍面分布规律及其对深部钻探的意义     

秦绪文  张宝金  赵斌  路允乾  陈玺  王利杰  许振强  张如伟  耿明会  杨振  李建平  吕文超  尉建功 《地质学报》2022,96(8):2635-2646

钻遇莫霍面是人类一直以来的梦想。深海海底是地球上离莫霍面最近的地方，目前有研究推测南海是世界上莫霍面深度最浅的海域之一，但缺乏足够的直接证据。深反射地震探测可以直接揭示岩石圈的构造形态，是莫霍面探测的重要手段。本文基于长达15000 km的深反射多道地震剖面的解释、处理、制图和分析，结合前人的研究，形成了南海海盆区莫霍面反射特征和空间分布的初步认识。① 南海东部次海盆南部早期经历了较快速扩张，岩浆供应充足，受扩张停止后岩浆活动影响较小，基底平坦，地质构造相对简单，同时洋壳地震速度结构不存在异常，且有较强的广角莫霍面反射波和可识别的地幔顶部折射波，具备莫霍面钻探的基本条件。② 南海海盆不同区域的莫霍面反射强度存在较大差异。其中东部次海盆莫霍面反射最为强烈且清晰，西北次海盆次之，西南次海盆仅有零星出现的清晰莫霍面反射且可信度不高。③ 识别南海海盆区莫霍面地震反射长度超过3500 km，首次形成了海盆区深度域莫霍面地震反射空间分布图。与重力反演的莫霍面深度相比，利用深反射多道地震计算的莫霍面深度细节更为丰富，并且可以在垂向上清晰刻画莫霍面的结构。整体上，南海海盆区莫霍面地震反射强烈和可信度高的区域中，深度较浅的区域之一是东部次海盆南部，最浅处仅约9. 5 km，其中水深4. 01 km，洋壳厚度仅5. 54 km。综合判断，东部次海盆南部是南海重要的莫霍面钻探备选区，这对南海莫霍面钻探选址具有重要意义。  相似文献