我们是怎样预报松潘7.2级地震的——纪念松潘7.2级地震30周年     

张珍 《四川地震》2007,(3):22-27,48

回顾了1976年8月16日松潘7.2级地震中期、短期与临震预报,以及震后趋势判断的过程,简述了当年预报所依据的各类前兆异常。  相似文献   

Simulation of seismicity due to fluid migration in a fault zone   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Teruo Yamashita 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,132(3):674-686

Spatio-temporal variation of rupture activity is modelled assuming fluid migration in a narrow, porous fault zone formed along a vertical strike-slip fault in a semi-infinite elastic medium. The principle of the effective stress coupled to the Coulomb failure criterion introduces mechanical coupling between fault slip and the pore fluid. The fluid is assumed to flow out of a localized high-pressure fluid compartment in the fault at the onset of earthquake rupture. The duration of the earthquake sequence is assumed to be much shorter than the recurrence period of characteristic events on the fault. Both an earthquake swarm and a foreshock–main-shock sequence can be simulated by changing the relative magnitudes of the initial tectonic stress, pore fluid pressure, fracture strength and so on. When an inhomogeneity is introduced into the spatial distribution of fracture strength, high complexity is observed in the spatio-temporal variation of rupture activity. For example, the time interval between two successive events is highly irregular, and a relatively long quiescence of activity is sometimes observed in a foreshock–main-shock sequence. The quiescence is caused by the temporary arresting of rupture extension, due to an encounter with fault segments having locally high strengths. The frequency–magnitude statistics of intermediate-size events obey the Gutenberg–Richter relation. The calculations show the temporal variation of the b value during some foreshock sequences, and the degree of the change seems to depend on the statistical distribution of the fracture strength.  相似文献   

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Max Wyss  & Artak H. Martirosyan 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,134(2):329-340

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.  相似文献   

The M_L 5.3 Épagny (French Alps) earthquake of 1996 July 15: a long-awaited event on the Vuache Fault     

François Thouvenot  Julien Fréchet  Paul Tapponnier  Jean-Charles Thomas  Benoît Le Brun  Gilles Ménard  Robin Lacassin  Liliane Jenatton  Jean-Robert Grasso  Olivier Coutant  Anne Paul  & Denis Hatzfeld 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,135(3):876-892

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Nonlinear magnitude frequency relation and two types of seismicity systems     

Shi-Jun Chen  Zhi-Cai Wang  Jiu-Qing Tao 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(2):207-218

A nonlinear magnitude frequency equation has been derived in this paper on the assumption that all seismicity systems hold fractal characteristics, and according to the differences of relevant coefficients in the equation, seismicity systems are classified into two types: type I, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by only one great unified system; type II, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by more than one great system. One type of seismicity system may convert to the other type, generally. For example, a type I system will change to a type II system prior to the occurrence of a strong earthquake in North China. This change can be regarded as an index for earthquake trend estimation. In addition, the difference between b value in nonlinear magnitude frequency equation and that in linear equation and the term dΔM related to the coefficients of nonlinear terms obtained in this paper are proved to be a pair of available parameters for medium short term earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

Relocation of shallow earthquakes in southern Alaska using Joint Hypocenter Determination method     

Natalia A. Ratchkovsky  Jose Pujol  Niren N. Biswas 《Journal of Seismology》1998,2(1):87-102

A subset of 2660 shallow earthquakes (0–50 km) that occurred from 1988 to 1996 in south central Alaska between 155°W and 145°W and 59°N and 63°N was relocated using the joint hypocenter determination (JHD) method. Both P- and S-wave observations recorded by the regional seismic network were used. Events were relocated in twenty different groups based on their geographic location and depth using two velocity models. As a result of the relocation, the majority of the hypocenters shifted downward, while the epicenter locations did not change significantly. The distribution of the shallow subduction zone earthquakes indicates the existence of two seismically independent blocks, with one block occupying the northeastern part and the other occupying the central and western parts of the study area. The boundary between the blocks is marked by a 15 to 20 km wide seismicity gap to the southeast of 149.5°W and 62°N. The analysis of the fault plane solutions for shallow subduction zone earthquakes shows that an overwhelming majority of the solutions represent normal, oblique-normal or strike-slip faulting with predominant WNW-ESE orientation of T-axes. This indicates a down-dip extensional regime for the subducting slab at shallow depths. Very few earthquakes yielded fault plane solutions consistent with thrusting on a contact zone between the overriding and subducting plates. This result may be an indication that currently either the strain energy is not released at the contact zone or it is associated with aseismic motion.  相似文献   

Geographical and vertical variation of the earth's seismicity     

Theodoros M. Tsapanos  Basil C. Papazachos 《Journal of Seismology》1998,2(3):183-192

Information concerning a total number of 13700 instrumentally recorded earthquakes is used to study the geographical and the vertical distribution of the Earth's seismicity. From these earthquakes, which form four complete samples of data (M 7.0, 1894–1992; M 6.5, 1930–1992; M 6.0, 1953–1992; M 5.5, 1966–1992), 11511 are shallow (h 60 km), 2085 are of intermediate focal depth (61 h 300 km) and 564 are deep focus earthquakes (301 h 720 km). The parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relationship were calculated in a grid of equally spaced points at 1° by using the data of earthquakes located inside circles centered at each point. The radius of the circles increased from 30 km with a step of 10 km until the information for the earthquakes located inside the circle fulfil three criteria which concern the size of the sample used to compute these parameters at each point of the grid. The results are given in a qualitative way (epicenter maps) as well as in a quantitative way (mean return periods).  相似文献   

The relationship between the earthquakes of Ningbo area and the Neotectonic movement     

陈家庚  陈存国  王里  李博惠  奚云 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(3):337-347

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思普地区地震活动和地质构造的相关性研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

樊耀新 《地震研究》1998,21(1):65-70

红河断裂是云南主要的区域大断裂,区内现代构造运动强烈,但其南段长期无中强地震发生,而离它仅１００ｋｍ的滇西南思普地区地震活动却异常强烈,本在前人工作的基础上,研究了滇西南地区地壳构造和地震活动特点,用人工地震测探等方面的实际资料进一步证实了思普地区存在地较大规模的北东向断层,并提出北东向断层的思普地区地震活动中起重要控制作用的结论。  相似文献   

滇西地区综合环境因子预报地震的研究     

石绍符 《地震研究》1998,21(3):227-235

本在原有单项预报指标的基础上,研究西地区（Ｎ２３°４８′－２６°２０′;Ｅ９７°００′－９９°３０′）Ｍ≥５．０级的地震。  相似文献