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71.
基于EMD的山东省GDP增长与耕地变化的关系   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文首次用EMD方法,对山东省的经济增长与耕地面积变化关系进行比较分析,试图找出两者的互动关系,以期对山东省的耕地资源保护有所借鉴。研究结果表明:山东省GDP增长的波动周期为13年、23年、37年和55年;山东省耕地变化的周期为9年、13年、37年和55年。这充分证明了GDP增长的波动对山东省耕地周期性变化的驱动作用。到2015年前后,山东省经济增长的耕地代价性损失将大大减少,耕地数量将维持在一个相对稳定的水平,经济增长和耕地数量减少进入一个良性的发展阶段。最后,本文首次尝试建立有周期的动力学模型,对山东省未来20年的耕地面积变化进行了预测。  相似文献   
72.
统计了渔洞水库的水位变化规律,分析了水库蓄水前后库区及其附近地区的地震活动性和构造应力场特征。结果表明,水库蓄水前后研究区地震活动的图像、强度和频次都没有明显变化;水库蓄水和水位变化对研究区构造应力场没有明显的影响。  相似文献   
73.
2004年12月26日和2005年3月29日,印度尼西亚苏门答腊西北海域相继发生8.7和8.5级地震。通过对这两次地震与云南地震活动关系和地下流体记录异常变化的分析,认为:印尼两次8级地震的发生可能会使云南提前进入新一轮强震活跃期;远震对云南地区小震的激发和导致地下流体记录出现异常变化的因素虽然都与大地震面波的强弱、地质构造环境等有关,但机理不同。  相似文献   
74.
New in situ data based on hydraulic fracturing and overcoring have been compiled for eastern Australia, increasing from 23 to 110 the number of in situ stress analyses available for the area between and including the Bowen and Sydney Basins. The Bowen Basin displays a consistent north‐northeast maximum horizontal stress (σH) orientation over some 500 km. Stress orientations in the Sydney Basin are more variable than in the Bowen Basin, with areas of the Sydney Basin exhibiting north‐northeast, northeast, east‐west and bimodal σH orientations. Most new data indicate that the overburden stress (σV) is the minimum principal stress in both the Bowen and Sydney Basins. The Sydney Basin is relatively seismically active, whereas the Bowen Basin is relatively aseismic. Despite the fact that in situ stress measurements sample the stress field at shallower depth than the seismogenic zone, there is a correlation between the stress measurements and seismicity in the two areas. Mohr‐Coulomb analysis of the propensity for failure in the Sydney Basin suggests 41% of the new in situ stress data are indicative of failure, as opposed to 13% in the Bowen Basin. The multiple pre‐existing structural grains in the Sydney Basin further emphasise the difference between propensity for failure in the two areas. Previous modelling of intraplate stresses due to plate boundary forces has been less successful at predicting stress orientations in eastern than in western and central Australia. Nonetheless, stress orientation in the Bowen Basin is consistent with that predicted by modelling of stresses due to plate boundary forces. Variable stress orientations in the Sydney Basin suggest that more local sources of stress, such as those associated with the continental margin and with local structure, significantly influence stress orientation. The effect of local sources of stress may be relatively pronounced because stresses due to plate boundary forces result in low horizontal stress anisotropy in the Sydney Basin.  相似文献   
75.
When a study is to be made of seismic risks, the present-day geodynamic conditions are of fundamental importance: Earthquakes do not happen by themselves, they do have a cause. The cause of earthquakes is that the tectonic stresses exceed a critical limit. The build-up of these stresses is conditioned by the geodynamic processes occurring in the region in question. A knowledge of the geodynamics characteristic of a region is therefore fundamental for seismic risk studies. The general methodology for making such a geodynamic study is based on the entire set of manifestations of the plate-tectonic conditions of that region: these include the mechanism of earthquakes, the stresses observed in mines, the orientation of surface joints and even the direction of river valleys. Examples of geodynamic studies and their bearing on seismic risks are shown from various areas of the world, notably from China, India, and Colombia.  相似文献   
76.
In the summer of 1984, a three-dimensional, high-resolution microearthquake network was operated in the vicinity of two coal mines beneath Gentry Mountain in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. During a six-week period, approximately 3,000 seismic events were observed of which the majority were impulsive, higher frequency (>10 Hz), short duration (<2–3 sec) events probably associated with the caving of the roof from a longwall operation. In contrast, 234 of the largest located events appeared to occur predominantlybeneath the mines to a depth of 2 to 3 km consistent with previous studies. The magnitudes of these events ranged from less thanM c 0 to 1.6. In addition to the unusual depths of these latter events, an anomalous aspect displayed by the events was an apparent dilatational focal mechanism suggesting a non-double-couple, possibly implosional source. Implosional events have been observed in other studies of mine seismicity; however, the generally inadequate instrumental coverage of the focal sphere has cast some doubt on the validity of such mechanisms. Previously suggested source mechanisms for such implosional events have included tensional failure through strata collapse, and a shear-implosional displacement mechanism. Shear failure must be involved in the failure process of the Gentry Mountain implosional events as evidenced by well-defined shear waves in the observed seismograms. Simultaneous monitoring in the East Mountain coal mining area to the south by the University of Utah revealed typical shear failure events mixed with implosional events. The observed double-couple, reverse focal mechanisms at East Mountain were similar to mechanisms determined in previous studies and a composite focal mechanism determined in this study for a sequence outside the mining areas. This suggested that the shear events within the mining areas are being influenced by the regional tectonic stress field. Thus in addition to the seismic events associated with caving of the roof from the longwall operation, there appear to be at least two other types of mining-induced seismic events occurring in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, both submine in origin: (1) events characterized by apparent non-double-couple possibly implosional focal mechanisms and well-defined shear waves; and (2) shear events, which are indistinguishable from tectonic earthquakes and may be considered mining triggered earthquakes. The small mining-induced stress changes that occur beyond a few hundred meters from the mine workings suggest both types of seismic events are occurring on critically stressed, pre-existing zones of weakness. Topography, overburden, method of mining, and mine configuration also appear to be significant factors influencing the occurrence of the implosional submine events.  相似文献   
77.
The Hikurangi Margin is a region of oblique subduction with northwest-dipping intermediate depth seismicity extending southwest from the Kermadec system to about 42°S. The current episode of subduction is at least 16–20 Ma old. The plate convergence rate varies along the margin from about 60 mm/a at the south end of the Kermadec Trench to about 45 mm/a at 42°S. The age of the Pacific lithosphere adjacent to the Hikurangi Trench is not known.The margin divides at about latitude 39°S into two quite dissimilar parts. The northern part has experienced andesitic volcanism for about 18 Ma, and back-arc extension in the last 4 Ma that has produced a back-arc basin onshore with high heaflow, thin crust and low upper-mantle seismic velocities. The extension appears to have arisen from a seawards migration of the Hikurangi Trench north of 39°S. Here the plate interface is thought to be currently uncoupled, as geodetic data indicate extension of the fore-arc basin, and historic earthquakes have not exceededM s=7.South of 39°S there is no volcanism and a back-arc basin has been produced by downward flexure of the lithosphere due to strong coupling with the subducting plate. Heatflow in the basin is normal. Evidence for strong coupling comes from historic earthquakes of up to aboutM s=8 and high rates of uplift on the southeast coast of the North Island.The reason for this division of the margin is not known but may be related to an inferred increase, from northeast to southwest, in the buoyancy of the Pacific lithosphere.  相似文献   
78.
Measuring of microseismic events has been carried out at the former potash mine of Hope since early 1984.Analysis of the data demonstrates an immediate temporal relationship between brine introduction and onset of microseismic activity. The spatial distribution of the sources indicates a dependence on brine level height. Sources are found preferentially immediately next to roads and workings. Source radii, estimated from the frequency ranges in the seismograms, varied with the cross-section of neighbouring cavities and had a similar, order of size.Events occurred rarely in the previously flooded mine sections Similarly, the zone below a depth of approx. 600 m below sea level was virtually inactive.  相似文献   
79.
Anticipating the scale invariance of rock fracturing processes, we applied Keilis-Borok’s algorithm M8, originally designed for identifying times of increased probability (TIPS) of occurrence of strong earthquakes (M < 8.0), retrospectively to Koyna earthquakes which occurred in the region after the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar reservoir in 1962. The algorithm which enables diagnosis of TIPS from the 7th year onwards after the commencement of the earliest available data set showed that the 5.3 magnitude earthquake of 20 September 1980 indeed occurred within a time of increased probability. This result, apart from its potential application to recognizing future TIPS in the region, points to selfsimilarity between the premonitory patterns of natural and induced earthquakes and to scale-invariant nature of their processes. Further, a typical precursory rise in seismicity followed by a relative quiescence was also found to precede all the three larger earthquakes of the sequence.  相似文献   
80.
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