Gravity and seismicity analyses of the El Chichon volcano,Chiapas, Mexico     

F. Medina  T. Gonzalez-Moran  L. Gonzalez 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,133(1):149-165

Subduction induced compressional stress, lateral displacement faults probably linked to the NW extension of the Polochic-Motagua fault system, and local magma emplacement create a complex geological setting for the El Chichon volcano.Gravity analysis reveals that the principal structures in the area correspond to synclines and anticlines. Downward continuation of the gravity field suggests the presence of magma emplacement SE of the volcano. This magmatic emplacement appears to be the principal cause of the truncation of the syncline in which the volcano lies.Analyses of earthquakes occurring after eruptions show that the vertical distribution of events is confined to a roughly cylindrical zone which correlates well with the region of magmatic emplacement inferred from the gravity analysis.Even though more than 350 km separate the volcano from the Middle American trench, the compressional stress regime reported for the area may correlate with subduction stress (N30°E). However, the strike direction for the principal faults in the zone, N60°W, permits us to postulate that the NW extension of the Polochic-Motagua fault system is implicated in the local tectonics of the El Chichon area.  相似文献   

Seismicity induced by gas production: II. Lithology correlated events,induced stresses and deformation     

Jean-Robert Grasso  Bruno Feignier 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,134(3):427-450

A 3D relocation technique permits precise locations of induced earthquakes. Geostatistical processing using the data of 87 boreholes provides the basis of a precise 3D structure, with a dome geometry. Conventional laboratory mechanical tests performed on deep rock samples (1000 m to 5000 m) define the rock properties at depths similar to those of the seismic events (1<M _L<4.2) that range from 1 to 7 km.In the studied period, most (85%), of the events were located above the gas reservoir, with very few located in the reservoir itself. Because the production parameters (50 MPa depletion of the gas pressure reservoir) are homogeneous throughout the gas field, the lateral inhomogeneity of the seismic rupture locations are a consequence of variations in the rheological response of the dome to the deformation induced by gas production.Here a ratio of two is found between the elastic modulus of the seismic rock matrix and the elastic modulus of the aseismic rock matrix. The contrast in strength is at least as great, if not greater. Repeated measured surface deformations involve the whole structure. Spatial and temporal deformations indicate that aseismic deformation is quantitatively the main process of this structural deformation. The heterogeneous stress pattern inferred fromP-axes of induced earthquakes disagrees with the tectonic regional stress field. The radial distribution ofP-axes towards the gas reservoir probably reflects the production induced deformation. The inferred deformation of the dome occurs in response to weak induced stresses.  相似文献   

Seismicity induced by gas production: I. Correlation of focal mechanisms and dome structure     

Bruno Feignier  Jean-Robert Grasso 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,134(3):405-426

From August 1976 to June 1979, more than 220 seismic events were recorded by a 7-station network operating over an active gas field in France. 120 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 1.0 were selected for a detailed study in order to understand the seismic response to a decrease in the gas reservoir pressure of 50 MPa. Composite focal mechanisms were determined for these events. We found that where preexisting fractures were known from well-logs, faults with the most favorable orientation were reactivated. In the part of the gas field where no preexisting faults were known, orientation of the fracture planes was close to the orientations of stratigraphic interfaces.Our kinematic model, constrained by the distribution of the earthquakes and their focal mechanisms, consists of the downward dropping of a block located close to the top of the gas field. The main faults, as defined by the spatial density of the seismic activity, define the limits of this block. The displacements observed along these faults can be either normal or reverse mechanism, dependent on the preexisting orientation of each fault. Another important result is the evidence that the depletion of the gas reservoir exerts the major influence on local seismic displacements, obscuring the effect of regional setting.  相似文献   

Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedance of annual floods   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

L. M. Lye 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1990,4(1):55-64

In this paper Lindley's Bayesian approximation procedure is used to obtain the Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedence of a flood discharge. The Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence has been shown by S.K. Sinha to be equivalent to the estimate of the probability of exceedence from the predictive or Bayesian disribution, of a future flood discharge. The evaluation of complex ratios of multiple integrals common in a Bayesian analysis is not necessary using Lindley's procedure. The Bayes estimates are compared to those obtained by the method of maximum likelihood and the method of moments. The results show that Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence are larger as expected, but have smaller posterior standard deviations.  相似文献   

Parameter identification in tidal models with uncertain boundary conditions     

P. G. J. ten Brummelhuis  A. W. Heemink 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1990,4(3):193-208

In this paper a parameter estimation algorithm is developed to estimate uncertain parameters in two dimensional shallow water flow models. Since in practice the open boundary conditions of these models are usually not known accurately, the uncertainty of these boundary conditions has to be taken into account to prevent that boundary errors are interpreted by the estimation procedure as parameter fluctuations. Therefore the open boundary conditions are embedded into a stochastic environment and a constant gain extended Kalman filter is employed to identify the state of the system. Defining a error functional that measures the differences between the filtered state of the system and the measurements, a quasi Newton method is employed to determine the minimum of this functional. To reduce the computational burden, the gradient of the criterium that is required using the quasi Newton method is determined by solving the adjoint system.  相似文献   

Toroidal oscillations of a transradially isotropic elastic sphere     

Alka Gupta  Sarva Jit Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》1990,99(3):383-391

In order to consider the effect of anisotropy on the periods of the oscillations of the Earth, the problem of toroidal oscillations of a transradially isotropic elastic sphere is considered. At each point, the medium is assumed to be transversely isotropic about the radius through the point. The roots of the frequency equation are obtained for different values of the anisotropy parameter α. It is found that, for large order oscillations, the percentage change in the frequency of the toroidal oscillations on account of the anisotropy is nearly equal to |α-1| × 100.  相似文献   

小参数展开法解圆柱扭转的有限位移问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

左谨平 《地球科学》1990,15(5):572-580

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Seismicity of the Koyna region and regional tectonomagmatism of the Western Margin (India)     

U. Raval 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,145(1):175-192

Recent findings on the Meso-Cenozoic tectonomagmatism and deep-seated anomalous geophysical structures suggest a close linkage between the seismicity of the Koyna region, the Westernghat uplift (WG-U) and associated thermomechanical and fluid activities. The WG-U seems to be the result of late Cretaceous thermal mobilization, erosion of the Deccan trap cover and superposition of compressional stress. The association of seismicity with uplift seems to result from movement of deep-seated heat and fluids/volatiles along the edges (or boundary faults) of the uplift; because the force required for crustal deformation depends on the relief. Observed gradients in relief may be attributed to the differential erosion-rates and heat inputs, due to the time gap of 50 Ma in the break-ups and plume activities on the eastern and western sides and consequence magmatism. Further, the geology and tectonics strongly indicate that the western margin (WM) is a relic of a mobile arm (MA), that included Madagascar, and which formed a part of the Proterozoic mobile belt of greater India (fort>85 Ma). The mobile nature of the WM facilitates mantle upwellings and transient elevation of isotherms at depth, raising the possibility of intermittent metamorphism and greater deformation.Superposition of the ongoing compression and uplift-induced forces make local permeability and pore-fluid pressure vital in triggering the seismic slip over the Peninsular shield. Certain representative model calculations have been carried out to estimate change in the e.m. induction characteristics caused by an intermittent hydraulic connectivity. The results show a drop in the resistivity which could be a useful monitoring index. The close connection of uplift and fluid activity as discussed here seems applicable for other active parts of the South Indian Shield (SIS) also.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard maps for the U.K.     

R. M. W. Musson  P. W. Winter 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):141-154

Past studies of seismic hazard in the U.K. that have used modern probabilistic methods of hazard assessment have been site-specific studies, mostly in connection with nuclear installations. There has been a need for general-purpose maps of seismic hazard to show relative variation of exposure within the U.K. and to give some guidance on absolute values. Such maps have now been produced, incorporating, for the first time, the wealth of new information on historical earthquakes in Britain that has been gathered over the last 15 years. The hazard calculations were undertaken using a new computer code based on the USGS program SEISRISK III, but incorporating a logic tree approach to model variation in the input parameters (e.g. focal depth) or uncertainty in the formulation of the model (e.g. attenuation parameters). An innovative approach was taken to the formulation of seismic source zones, in which two overlapping models were employed. The first of these uses relatively broad source zones based loosely on an interpretation of seismicity and tectonics, while the second uses numerous small zones that reflect the locations of past significant earthquakes. This double approach (using the logic tree methodology) has the merit of both considering the general trend of earthquake activity as well as focusing in on known danger spots. The results show that the areas of highest hazard are western Scotland, north-western England and Wales, where the intensity with 90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years is 6 EMS.  相似文献   

选取岭参数的一个新方法   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

归庆明 《测绘工程》1997,6(1):14-19

当法方程的系数阵呈病态时,平差参数的最小二乘估计不再是一个良好好估计。为改进最小二乘估计,许多学者提出众多的有偏估计方法,其中影响最大的是岭估计和主要估计。  相似文献