气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望   总被引：32，自引：0，他引：32  

周广胜 《气象与环境科学》2015,38(1):80-94

综述了气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源、农业气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、高温热浪、低温灾害)和农业病虫害的变化趋势与规律,从农业生产潜力变化、作物种植制度变化和作物品质变化等方面阐明了气候变化对中国农业生产的影响事实,分析了气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响和中国农业生产适应气候变化的对策措施。在此基础上,针对气候变化背景下中国气候资源的时空分布特点及农业生产出现的新情况、新问题,指出了当前中国关于气候变化对农业影响研究存在的不足,提出了未来气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究需要重视的方面,为确保气候变化背景下中国的农业生产安全及粮食安全提供决策支持。  相似文献   

2013年河北中南部PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度时间变化特征及其影响气象条件分析     

吴雁  陈瑞敏  王颉 《气象与环境科学》2015,38(4):68-75

对2013年河北省中南部的石家庄、保定、沧州、衡水、邢台和邯郸6个地市市区各站点逐小时PM10和PM2.5监测资料及相应气象资料分析结果表明:6个地市中邢台年污染日数最多,对应其年平均风速最小;沧州的最少,年平均风速最大。各地市各个级别污染日数不同,五、六级重污染天气均集中在10月—次年3月。首要污染物主要是PM10和PM2.5,但比例不尽相同。特殊的地理位置、污染源差异和气象条件的差异造成各地市污染日数、级别的差异。6个地市污染天气过程时段大都相同,区域性污染明显。各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度平均最大值均出现在冬季,PM10浓度平均最小值均出现在夏季,各市PM2.5浓度平均最小值出现的季节不同。6个地市PM10和PM2.5浓度值的月变化趋势相似。不同季节各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度日变化趋势不同,极值出现的时间也各不相同,极值出现的时间与气象条件和人类活动关系密切。秋、冬季各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度日较差多大于春、夏季的。各地市PM10和PM2.5浓度日均值与当地的日均气温、风速、能见度呈负相关关系,与相对湿度呈正相关关系且相关性比较显著。  相似文献   

The Effects of Land Cover Change on Regional Climate over the Eastern Part of Northwest China          下载免费PDF全文

HAN Zhen-Yu  GAO Xue-Jie  SHI Ying  XU Ying 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(3):153-159

A regional climate model(Reg CM4) is employed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China(ENW) in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The results indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was characterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature(within ~0.3°C) and slight regional changes in precipitation(within ~15%) in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures increased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature increase in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.  相似文献   

Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections     

Chao Wang  Liguang Wu 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):613-623

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.  相似文献   

Historical influences on the current provision of multiple ecosystem services     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

Ecosystem service provision varies temporally in response to natural and human-induced factors, yet research in this field is dominated by analyses that ignore the time-lags and feedbacks that occur within socio-ecological systems. The implications of this have been unstudied, but are central to understanding how service delivery will alter due to future land-use/cover change. Urban areas are expanding faster than any other land-use, making cities ideal study systems for examining such legacy effects. We assess the extent to which present-day provision of a suite of eight ecosystem services, quantified using field-gathered data, is explained by current and historical (stretching back 150 years) landcover. Five services (above-ground carbon density, recreational use, bird species richness, bird density, and a metric of recreation experience quality (continuity with the past) were more strongly determined by past landcover. Time-lags ranged from 20 (bird species richness and density) to over 100 years (above-ground carbon density). Historical landcover, therefore, can have a strong influence on current service provision. By ignoring such time-lags, we risk drawing incorrect conclusions regarding how the distribution and quality of some ecosystem services may alter in response to land-use/cover change. Although such a finding adds to the complexity of predicting future scenarios, ecologists may find that they can link the biodiversity conservation agenda to the preservation of cultural heritage, and that certain courses of action provide win-win outcomes across multiple environmental and cultural goods.  相似文献   

The PISA grammar decodes diverse human–environment approaches     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

Human–environment interactions are studied by several groups of scholars who have elaborated different approaches to describe, analyze, and explain these interactions, and eventually propose paths for management. The SETER project (Socio-Ecological Theories and Empirical Research) analyzed and compared how “flag-holders” of distinct school of thought in human–environment scholarship approached a number of empirical problems of environmental management. This paper presents the findings from this experiment by concentrating on how representatives of four schools of thought approached one of these case studies: the plant health crisis in greenhouse tomato production in south of France. Our analysis suggests that these approaches share a common conceptual vocabulary composed of four explanatory elements of change (Power, Incentives, System and Adaptation-PISA). We argue that what distinguishes these schools from one another is the syntax—the “rules” by which researchers in each of the sub-disciplines tend to organize the components of this shared conceptual vocabulary. In other words, the schools under scrutiny are differentiated not so much by what they speak of, but rather in what order, or hierarchy, do they tend to rank the importance and/or the sequence of each of these concepts in human–environment explanations. The results of our experiment support the view that communication and cooperation across the diverse human–environment traditions is possible and productive. At the same time, however, we argue that it is the distinctiveness of the claims yielded by these different schools of thought that augment our collective understanding of complex socio-ecological problems. Attempts to integrate these perspectives in one unitary approach would undermine the intellectual wealth necessary to meet the challenges of the Anthropocene.  相似文献   

National indicators for observing ecosystem service change     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

Earth’s life-support systems are in rapid decline, yet we have few metrics or indicators with which to track these changes. The world’s governments are calling for biodiversity and ecosystem-service monitoring to guide and evaluate international conservation policy as well as to incorporate natural capital into their national accounts. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has been tasked with setting up this monitoring system. Here we explore the immediate feasibility of creating a global ecosystem-service monitoring platform under the GEO BON framework through combining data from national statistics, global vegetation models, and production function models. We found that nine ecosystem services could be annually reported at a national scale in the short term: carbon sequestration, water supply for hydropower, and non-fisheries marine products, crop, livestock, game meat, fisheries, mariculture, and timber production. Reported changes in service delivery over time reflected ecological shocks (e.g., droughts and disease outbreaks), highlighting the immediate utility of this monitoring system. Our work also identified three opportunities for creating a more comprehensive monitoring system. First, investing in input data for ecological process models (e.g., global land-use maps) would allow many more regulating services to be monitored. Currently, only 1 of 9 services that can be reported is a regulating service. Second, household surveys and censuses could help evaluate how nature affects people and provides non-monetary benefits. Finally, to forecast the sustainability of service delivery, research efforts could focus on calculating the total remaining biophysical stocks of provisioning services. Regardless, we demonstrated that a preliminary ecosystem-service monitoring platform is immediately feasible. With sufficient international investment, the platform could evolve further into a much-needed system to track changes in our planet's life-support systems.  相似文献   

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations     

Shili Yang  Wenjie Dong  Jieming Chou  Jinming Feng  Xiaodong Yan  Zhigang Wei  Wenping Yuan  Yan Guo  Yanli Tang  Jiacong Hu 《大气科学进展》2015,32(12):1683-1688

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.  相似文献   

气候变化对中国农业旱灾损失率的影响及其南北区域差异性   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

张强  韩兰英  郝小翠  韩涛  贾建英  林婧婧 《气象学报》2015,73(6):1092-1103

在全球变暖背景下,干旱灾害对中国农业生产的影响日益严重,然而由于旱灾损失的复杂性及其显著的区域差异,至今对中国农业旱灾损失规律及其影响机制的认识十分有限。文中利用1961年以来中国农业干旱灾害的灾情资料和常规气象资料,系统分析了近50年来中国农业干旱灾害不同受灾强度分布比率和综合损失率等指标的变化趋势及其在北方和南方的区域差异,研究了20世纪90年代的气温突变对农业旱灾损失率的影响特征,探讨了农业旱灾综合损失率对气温和降水等气候要素变化的依赖关系及其在气候空间的分布特征。结果发现,在气候变化背景下,近50年来中国农业旱灾综合损失率平均每10 a约增加0.5%,风险明显增大。而且,北方综合损失率每10 a约增加0.6%,高出南方1倍,风险增大的速度明显比南方快;北方农业旱灾几乎在很宽松的气温条件下就可以发生,而南方更多发生在气温较高的年份。并且,在气温突变后,变化趋势明显加剧,全中国综合损失率约增加了0.9%,风险明显增高;而且北方综合损失率的增值高达1.8%,是南方的4倍还多,气候突变对北方农业旱灾风险的影响明显比南方更凸出。综合损失率在北方对降水变化的响应要更敏感,而在南方对气温变化的响应更敏感。同时,关键影响期降水对综合损失率的影响比全年降水影响更显著;北方的关键影响期作用比南方更凸出。这些新的科学认识对中国农业旱灾防御具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Evaluating the economic damage of climate change on global coral reefs     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

This paper evaluates the global economic damage arising from the effects of climate change and associated carbon dioxide concentrations on the loss of coral reefs. We do this by first estimating the effects of sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations on coral cover. We develop a statistical relationship between coral coverage and sea surface temperature that indicates that the effects are dependent on the temperature range. For example, we find that increasing sea surface temperature causes coral coverage to decrease when sea surface temperature is higher than 26.85 °C, with the estimated reduction being 2.3% when sea surface temperature increases by 1%. In addition, we find that a 1% carbon dioxide increase induces a 0.6% reduction in global coral coverage. We also estimate the resultant loss in economic value based on a meta-analysis of the recreational and commercial value of reef coverage and a crude proportional approach for other value factors. The meta-analysis shows that the coral reef value decreases by 3.8% when coral cover falls by 1%. By combining these two steps we find that the lost value in terms of the global coral reef value under climate change scenarios ranges from US$3.95 to US$23.78 billion annually.  相似文献