宁夏南部山区雨雪天气分类模型的构建     

张成军 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2013,7(2):15-19

为深入了解宁夏南部山区雨雪天气形成原因,用天气学、统计学和逻辑学方法,分析大量雨雪天气个例中的天气系统配置、物理量数据等.研究结果表明:雨雪天气发生时,参与系统至少有500 hPa冷气压槽(或温度槽)、700 hPa低涡切变和地面冷锋等;冷干空气和暖湿气流路径配置约有7种,地面锋面和700 hPa零度等温线配置情形约有5种,700 hPa温度在零度附近及以下.强雨雪天气发生时,水汽输送好、辐合上升层厚、冷暖对比明显、参与系统多、移动较慢.最后给出3个漏报原因.  相似文献   

Simulation of a Persistent Snow Storm over Southern China with a Regional Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model     

LIAO Zhijie  ZHANG Yaocun 《大气科学进展》2013,30(2):425-447

A regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model,RegCM3-POM,was developed by coupling the regional climate model(RegCM3) with the Princeton Ocean Model(POM).The performance of RegCM3-POM in simulating a persistent snow storm over southern China and the impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO) on this persistent snow storm were investigated.Compared with the stand-alone RegCM3,the coupled model performed better at reproducing the spatial-temporal evolution and intensity of the precipitation episodes.The power spectral analysis indicated that the coupled model successfully captured the dominant period between 30 and 60 days in the precipitation field,leading to a notable improvement in simulating the magnitude of intraseasonal precipitation variation,and further in enhancing the intensity of the simulated precipitation.These improvements were mainly due to the well-simulated low-frequency oscillation center and its eastward propagation characteristics in each MJO phase by RegCM3-POM,which improved the simulations of MJO-related low-frequency vertical motions,water vapor transport,and the deep inversion layer that can directly influence the precipitation event and that further improved the simulated MJOprecipitation relationship.Analysis of the phase relationship between convection and SST indicated that RegCM3-POM exhibits a near-quadrature relation between the simulated convection and SST anomalies,which was consistent with the observations.However,such a near-quadrature relation was not as significant when the stand-alone RegCM3 was used.This difference indicated that the inherent coupled feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere in RegCM3-POM played an important part in reproducing the features of the MJO that accompanied the snow storm.  相似文献   

Impact of rain snow threshold temperature on snow depth simulation in land surface and regional atmospheric models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

文莉娟  吕世华 《大气科学进展》2013,30(5):1449-1460

This study investigates the impact of rain snow threshold (RST) temperatures on snow depth simulation using the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-coupled with the CLM and hereafter referred to as WRF CLM), and the difference in impacts. Simulations were performed from 17 December 1994 to 30 May 1995 in the French Alps. Results showed that both the CLM and the WRF CLM were able to represent a fair simulation of snow depth with actual terrain height and 2.5℃ RST temperature. When six RST methods were applied to the simulation using WRF CLM, the simulated snow depth was the closest to observations using 2.5℃ RST temperature, followed by that with Pipes’, USACE, Kienzle’s, Dai’s, and 0℃ RST temperature methods. In the case of using CLM, simulated snow depth was the closest to the observation with Dai’s method, followed by with USACE, Pipes’, 2.5℃ RST temperature, Kienzle’s, and 0℃ RST temperature method. The snow depth simulation using the WRF CLM was comparatively sensitive to changes in RST temperatures, because the RST temperature was not only the factor to partition snow and rainfall. In addition, the simulated snow related to RST temperature could induce a significant feedback by influencing the meteorological variables forcing the land surface model in WRF CLM. In comparison, the above variables did not change with changes in RST in CLM. Impacts of RST temperatures on snow depth simulation could also be influenced by the patterns of temperature and precipitation, spatial resolution, and input terrain heights.  相似文献   

前冬北半球环状模对春季中国东部北方地区极端低温的影响   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

尹姗  冯娟  李建平 《气象学报》2013,71(1):96-108

对1959—2008年前冬(12—3月)北半球环状模与春季(3—5月)中国东部北方地区极端低温事件的关系进行诊断分析,发现前冬北半球环状模与春季中国东部北方地区极端低温事件存在显著负相关。当前冬北半球环状模偏强时,春季中国东部北方地区上空对流层高、低层分别出现位势高度的负、正异常,对应异常的下沉增温,东北冷涡偏弱,极端低温事件发生频次偏少,强度偏弱;反之,当前冬北半球环状模偏弱时,春季该地区极端低温事件发生的频次偏多,强度偏强。进一步研究表明,欧亚雪盖在前冬北半球环状模对春季中国东部北方地区极端低温的影响中起到潜在的桥梁作用,当前冬北半球环状模偏强(偏弱)时,同期欧亚大陆中高纬度地区偏暖(偏冷),欧亚雪盖面积较小(较大)。另外,欧亚雪盖面积异常具有较强的持续性,可以从前冬持续到春季。因此,当前冬欧亚雪盖面积较小时,春季欧亚雪盖面积也偏小,且对应春季东北冷涡强度偏弱,中国东部北方地区地表气温偏高,极端低温事件发生的频次偏少,强度偏弱;反之亦然。前冬北半球环状模与春季中国东部北方地区极端低温事件的负相关关系为预测中国东部北方地区春季极端低温事件的变化提供了一个潜在的前期信号。  相似文献   

A Pre-game Evaluation of the Tourism Legacy of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games     

WANG Ning  JIANG Yiyi  XU Haibin  FANG Yan  ZHANG Yue  WANG Zhe 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2022,13(4):578-591

The role of tourism in social and economic development and stabilizing the Olympic legacy has been widely discussed. Beijing is the first “Dual-Olympic City”. For the first time, the Beijing Winter Olympics has adopted a model of three competition areas, which has attracted much attention to the study of its tourism legacy. In the legacy plan, the construction of the “Beijing-Zhangjiakou Sports Culture and Tourism Belt” was proposed. The development of ice and snow tourism and the cultivation of the ice and snow tourism market is also reflected in many policy documents and government actions. The scientific planning before the competition laid a good foundation for the sustainable development of its ice and snow tourism heritage. This research combines Olympic legacy research with tourism destination theory, and focuses on ice and snow tourism directly related to the Winter Olympics and the significance of pre-event planning for legacy protection. At the same time, the improvement of the quality of ice and snow tourism destinations is embedded in the pre-Olympic legacy, and opinions and suggestions on how to ensure the stability of the legacy after the games are given. This study uses the literature review method and the second-hand materials survey research method, then through establishing a tourism legacy pre-game evaluation model and the use of geographic information, government reports, policies, publicly released statistics and news reports, etc.. It explores the legacy of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics, aiming to lay the foundation for preserving the continuous value of the ice and snow tourism legacy during and after the Olympics. The results indicate that the Beijing Winter Olympics has made relatively complete plans and reliable progress in both tangible and intangible legacy. Complete tourism infrastructure, an optimistic sport and cultural atmosphere, and the improvement of residents’ health concept and sports awareness have become boosters for the development of ice and snow tourism in the Beijing-Zhangjiakou region.  相似文献   

Sustainable Development of Ice and Snow Tourism—Theory & Empirical Studies: Preface     

TANG Chengcai  XU Shiyi 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2022,13(4):547-551

The Beijing Winter Olympics brought a historical miracle to the development of China’s ice and snow tourism. It is both an opportunity and a challenge to reap the extra dividends of the times and to develop China’s ice and snow tourism. By selecting 18 academic papers, this special issue deeply discusses the status quo and the future measures of ice and snow tourism in China from three aspects: ice and snow tourism development and management, the ice and snow tourism experience and its influencing factors, and ice and snow tourism impact assessment. Moreover, one part entitled “Tourism Culture and Ecotourism” has been set up to emphasize those cutting-edge research topics. It is worth mentioning that this issue is in-depth and has profound connotations. First of all, the research area ranges from national to regional to the city-level, including both longitudinal and horizontal research. In additon, the research methods are practical, innovative, and at the frontier of scientific research, and include industrial correlation analysis methods, kernel density, spatial autocorrelation and other geospatial analysis methods, content analysis methods, sentiment analysis methods, structural equation models, Delphi methods, spatial statistics methods, geographic detector method and many others. In general, this special issue combines qualitative research with quantitative research, provides a variety of theoretical perspectives such as perceived value theory, institutional evolution theory, etc., and builds various useful models like the pre-competition evaluation model for ice and snow tourism heritage, the consumption skill-travel radius decision-making influence model under the moderating effect of the ski resort comprehensive leisure environment, the evaluation model of the suitability of glacier tourism resource development, the model of the relationship between tourists’ experience value and loyalty in the context of ice and snow tourism, among others. These studies are expected to provide theoretical and practical guidance for the development of ice and snow tourism in the post-Winter Olympics era, and help ice and snow tourism develop in a sustainable and high-quality direction.  相似文献   

Past and projected future changes in snowpack and soil frost at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest,New Hampshire,USA     

John L. Campbell  Scott V. Ollinger  Gerald N. Flerchinger  Haley Wicklein  Katharine Hayhoe  Amey S. Bailey 《水文研究》2010,24(17):2465-2480

Long‐term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire show that air temperature has increased by about 1 °C over the last half century. The warmer climate has caused significant declines in snow depth, snow water equivalent and snow cover duration. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that warmer air temperatures may result in colder soils and more soil frost, as warming leads to a reduction in snow cover insulating soils during winter. Hubbard Brook has one of the longest records of direct field measurements of soil frost in the United States. Historical records show no long‐term trends in maximum annual frost depth, which is possibly confounded by high interannual variability and infrequency of major soil frost events. As a complement to field measurements, soil frost can be modelled reliably using knowledge of the physics of energy and water transfer. We simulated soil freezing and thawing to the year 2100 using a soil energy and water balance model driven by statistically downscaled climate change projections from three atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models under two emission scenarios. Results indicated no major changes in maximum annual frost depth and only a slight increase in number of freeze–thaw events. The most important change suggested by the model is a decline in the number of days with soil frost, stemming from a concurrent decline in the number of snow‐covered days. This shortening of the frost‐covered period has important implications for forest ecosystem processes such as tree phenology and growth, hydrological flowpaths during winter, and biogeochemical processes in soil. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The simulation of heat and water exchange at the land–atmosphere interface for the boreal grassland by the land‐surface model SWAP     

Yeugeniy M. Gusev  Olga N. Nasonova 《水文研究》2002,16(10):1893-1919

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Role of temporal resolution of meteorological inputs for process‐based snow modelling          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad M. Sohrabi  Daniele Tonina  Rohan Benjankar  Mukesh Kumar  Patrick Kormos  Danny Marks 《水文研究》2018,32(19):2976-2989

Accurate snow accumulation and melt simulations are crucial for understanding and predicting hydrological dynamics in mountainous settings. As snow models require temporally varying meteorological inputs, time resolution of these inputs is likely to play an important role on the model accuracy. Because meteorological data at a fine temporal resolution (~1 hr) are generally not available in many snow‐dominated settings, it is important to evaluate the role of meteorological inputs temporal resolution on the performance of process‐based snow models. The objective of this work is to assess the loss in model accuracy with temporal resolution of meteorological inputs, for a range of climatic conditions and topographic elevations. To this end, a process‐based snow model was run using 1‐, 3‐, and 6‐hourly inputs for wet, average, and dry years over Boise River Basin (6,963 km²), which spans rain dominated (≤1,400 m), rain–snow transition (>1,400 and ≤1,900 m), snow dominated below tree line (>1,900 and ≤2,400 m), and above tree line (>2,400 m) elevations. The results show that sensitivity of the model accuracy to the inputs time step generally decreases with increasing elevation from rain dominated to snow dominated above tree line. Using longer than hourly inputs causes substantial underestimation of snow cover area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) in rain‐dominated and rain–snow transition elevations, due to the precipitation phase mischaracterization. In snow‐dominated elevations, the melt rate is underestimated due to errors in estimation of net snow cover energy input. In addition, the errors in SCA and SWE estimates generally decrease toward years with low snow mass, that is, dry years. The results indicate significant increases in errors in estimates of SCA and SWE as the temporal resolution of meteorological inputs becomes coarser than an hour. However, use of 3‐hourly inputs can provide accurate estimates at snow‐dominated elevations. The study underscores the need to record meteorological variables at an hourly time step for accurate process‐based snow modelling.  相似文献   

Linking hydrological variations at local scales to regional climate teleconnection patterns     

Kabir Rasouli  Karis Scharold  Taufique H. Mahmood  Nancy F. Glenn  Danny Marks 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5624-5641

Climate patterns over preceding years affect seasonal water and moisture conditions. The linkage between regional climate and local hydrology is challenging due to scale differences, both spatially and temporally. In this study, variance, correlation, and singular spectrum analyses were conducted to identify multiple hydroclimatic phases during which climate teleconnection patterns were related to hydrology of a small headwater basin in Idaho, USA. Combined field observations and simulations from a physically based hydrological model were used for this purpose. Results showed statistically significant relations between climate teleconnection patterns and hydrological fluxes in the basin, and climate indices explained up to 58% of hydrological variations. Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific North America (PNA) patterns affected mountain hydrology, in that order, by decreasing annual runoff and rain on snow (ROS) runoff by 43% and 26% during a positive phase of NAO and 25% and 9% during a positive phase of PNA. AAO showed a significant association with the rainfall-to-precipitation ratio and explained 49% of its interannual variation. The runoff response was affected by the phase of climate variability indices and the legacy of past atmospheric conditions. Specifically, a switch in the phase of the teleconnection patterns of NAO and PNA caused a transition from wet to dry conditions in the basin. Positive AAO showed no relation with peak snow water equivalent and ROS runoff in the same year, but AAO in the preceding year explained 24 and 25% (p < 0.05) of their variations, suggesting that the past atmospheric patterns are equally important as the present conditions in affecting local hydrology. Areas sheltered from the wind and acted as a source for snow transport showed the lowest (40% below normal) ROS runoff generation, which was associated with positive NAO that explained 33% (p < 0.01) of its variation. The findings of this research highlighted the importance of hydroclimatic phases and multiple year variations that must be considered in hydrological forecasts, climate projections, and water resources planning.  相似文献