基于分位数回归的西南太平洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地模型研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

冯波  田思泉  陈新军 《海洋湖沼通报》2010,(1)

阿根廷滑柔鱼是西南大西洋重要头足类资源,研究其变动、渔场分布与海洋环境的关系是其可持续利用的基础。本文利用分位数回归方法对表温(5m)、表层盐度(5m)、57m盐度及其盐度差、海面高度、叶绿素与阿根廷滑柔鱼钓获率进行回归分析,在中位数和高位数2种情况下分别建立阿根廷滑柔鱼的栖息地指数(HSI)模型,从而揭示西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地的分布模式。研究表明,本文建立的各分位数回归方程均能较好地解释自变量与应变量的关系(P0.05)。1~5月在60°W以西、42°S~53°S阿根廷沿海的大部分海域,其HIS值基本上在0.7以上;而58°W以东海域的HIS在0.4以下。阿根廷滑柔鱼适宜栖息地分布(HIS大于0.6)有明显的季节变化。  相似文献   

海洋测深综合效应的多测线改正技术     

于家城  宋春雷  徐学强  陈家斌 《海洋测绘》2008,28(2):9-12

提出了水深测量综合效应的多测线改正技术，通过分析水深测量中的波束角效应、地势效应及载体姿态变化对测深的影响，给出二维数字测深仪的详细设计方法，建立描述水深改正的指标，并用实际地形进行仿真。结果标明，该方法实用性强、改正效果明显。  相似文献   

Approaches for defining thresholds and return periods for rainfall‐triggered shallow landslides     

Paolo Frattini  Giovanni Crosta  Rosanna Sosio 《水文研究》2009,23(10):1444-1460

Probabilistic thresholds for triggering shallow landslides by rainfall are developed using two approaches: a logistic regression model and Iverson's physically based model. Both approaches are applied to a 180 km² area in northern Italy. For the physically based model a Monte Carlo approach is used to obtain probabilities of slope failure associated with differing combinations of rainfall intensity and duration as well as differing topographic settings. For the logistic regression model hourly and daily rainfall data and split‐sample testing are used to explore the effect of antecedent rainfall on triggering thresholds. It is demonstrated that both the statistical and physically based models provide stochastic thresholds that express the probability of landslide triggering. The resulting thresholds are comparable, even though the two approaches are conceptually different. The physically based model also provides an estimate of the percentage of potentially unstable areas in which failure can be triggered with a certain probability. The return period of rainfall responsible for landslide triggering is studied by using a Gumbel scaling model of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves. It is demonstrated that antecedent rainfall must be taken into account in landslide forecasting, and a method is proposed to correct the rainfall return period by filtering the rainfall maxima with a fixed threshold of antecedent rainfall. This correction produces an increase of the return periods, especially for rainstorms of short duration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

旅游经济发展与土地利用关系研究——以武陵源区为例     

李巍  杨敏华  饶四强  张江雪 《测绘与空间地理信息》2009,32(2)

分析了近10年来随着旅游经济的增长各类土地利用类型的变化情况,探索在当前经济发展形势下,各类用地类型的变化与旅游经济增长之间的内在联系.在得出的数学模型基础上,预测部分地类用地的数量及旅游经济的发展规模,为土地利用规划和旅游规划提供帮助.  相似文献   

Diagenetic alterations related to marine transgression and regression in fluvial and shallow marine sandstones of the Triassic Buntsandstein and Keuper sequence,the Paris Basin,France   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M.A.K. El-ghali  S. Morad  H. Mansurbeg  Miguel A. Caja  M. Sirat  N. Ogle 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2009

The distribution of diagenetic alterations in Triassic fluvio-deltaic, quartzarenitic to sublitharenitic, lowstand systems tract (LST) sandstones of the Grès á Voltzia Formation, anastomosing fluvial, quartzarenitic transgressive systems tract (TST) sandstones of the Grès á Roseaux Formation, and shallow marine, quartzarenitic to sublitharenitic, TST sandstones of the Grès Coquiller Formation, the Paris Basin (France), can be linked to transgression and regression events, and thus to the sequence stratigraphic context. Near-surface eogenetic alterations, which display a fairly systematic link to the depositional facies and sequence stratigraphic framework, include: (i) cementation by meteoric water calcite (δ¹⁸O=−8.9‰ and δ¹³C=−9.1‰) in the fluvio-deltaic, LST sandstones, (ii) cementation by mixed marine–meteoric calcite (δ¹⁸O=−5.3‰ to −2.6‰ and δ¹³C=−3.9‰ to −1.3‰) and dolomite (δ¹⁸O=−4.6‰ to −2.6‰ and δ¹³C=−2.9‰ to −2.3‰) in the foreshore, TST sandstones and below parasequence boundaries (PB), and transgressive surface (TS), and in the shoreface, TST sandstones below maximum flooding surfaces (MFS), being facilitated by the presence of carbonate bioclasts, (iii) dissolution of detrital silicates and precipitation of K-feldspar overgrowths and kaolinite, particularly in the fluvio-deltaic, LST sandstones owing to effective meteoric water circulation, and (vi) formation of autochthonous glauconite, which is increases in abundance towards the top of the fluvio-deltaic, LST sandstones, and along TS, and in the shoreface, TST sandstones, by alteration of micas owing to the flux of seawaters into the sandstones during transgression, whereas parautochthonous glauconite is restricted to the TS sandstones owing to marine reworking. Mesogenetic alterations, which include cementation by quartz overgrowths and illite, display fairly systematic link to fluvio-deltaic, LST sandstones. This study has revealed that linking of diagenesis to transgression and regression events enables a better understanding of the parameters that control the spatial and temporal distribution of diagenetic alterations in sandstones and of their impact on reservoir quality evolution.  相似文献   

从南京市矿业经济构架概论矿业经济发展态势     

周建华 《江苏地质》2001,25(3):174-179

从南京市的矿业经济成分入手,对矿山布局、加工水平、资源经济和社会效益等方面进行了分析,显示了乡镇矿业经济的发展情况.运用统计分析的结果说明南京市矿业经济总体特征和制约其发展的因素.提出了矿业经济发展的“矿山环境恶化变量“的概念以及与治理成本的关系,阐述了采矿活动对环境破坏与恢复治理的动态平衡原理.就OR值的优化也提出了相应的对策.运用宏观经济学等理论分析了区域性矿业经济发展的态势,围绕资源价值的加工放大能力产生的效益反哺环境治理的可行性进行了探讨.  相似文献   

张家界地区中晚寒武世岩相古地理特征     

马宏彬  杨绍祥 《湖南地质》2001,20(2):92-97

张家界地区中晚寒武世岩相带3分格局明显，自NW向SE依次为台地相、台缘斜坡相和陆棚相。3相区之间分别以花坦－张家界、古丈－张家界深大断裂为界。台地相欧孔王溪组属邻近盆缘陡坡地带类似于深水陆棚沉积，重力沉积发育；娄山关组北西小区记录了由台地边缘浅滩→局限台地潮坪→台地边缘浅滩的变迁过程；而东南小区则属台地边缘与斜坡的过渡地带。台缘斜坡相区敖溪组反映了缓慢的海退过程，沉积环境由陆棚向陆棚内缘带变迁；车夫组属台地前缘斜坡带，重力沉积转化为蚀流沉积；比条组为背景沉积综合产物，反映了台地前缘斜坡上带环境，陆棚相区探溪组旋回性明显。反映了陆棚内缘沉积特点；田家坪属台缘斜坡下带－陆棚内缘环境，沉积了一套多具鲍玛层序的远源风暴岩。各自有其岩石类型组合特征及沉积构造特征，并讨论了岩相古地一的演化规律。  相似文献   

20世纪全球表面温度场序列的插补试验   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

江志红  屠其璞 《南京气象学院学报》2001,24(1):26-36

利用基于主分量典型相关分析的典型变量回归 (CVR)插补模式 ,在综合分析Jones等 5°× 5°格点温度资料覆盖率的演变情况、缺测场与基本场温度距平相关结构、稳定性的基础上 ,确定合理的插补方案 ,对其陆面格点温度场进行插补延长试验 ,得到了 1 90 0～ 1 998年连续、均一的全球月平均气温场序列。独立样本检验表明插补效果优良 ,总缺测场误差方差与原序列方差之比低于 0 .40。插补前后全球及纬向平均序列的演变特征基本一致 ,原 Jones序列的线性增温率较重建序列高0 .1 1℃ /(1 0 0年 ) ,可能与原 Jones场序列空间分布的不均一性有关  相似文献   

最优子集回归在青藏高原冬季降水、气温预报中的应用及改进   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

时兴合  秦宁生等 《气象科学》2001,21(2):222-229

最优子集回归预测方法在天气预报等领域得到了越来越广泛的应用，方法本身没有涉及到图形处理。我们对方法、原理及过程进行深入细致的研究后，重新编写了程序的头部、中部、尾部语句及子过程调用函数，经多次调试试验，实现了入口资料调用灵活、多变、计算模拟结果屏幕绘图显示等，提高了预测方法的整体实用性和预测信息的可视化程度。检验得知：该方法对青藏高原冬季降水、气温的定性、定量预报均具有较高的预报精度。  相似文献   

理论变异函数球状模型的加权线性规划法似合   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

胡小荣  俞茂宏 《地质与勘探》2001,37(5):45-48

对理论变异函数球状模型及其套合结构拟合这一问题作了探讨，提出了加权线性规划拟合法。同于该法在目标函数中既可考虑到对不同滞后h下所得实验变异函数值进行加权，又可保证拟合成功，同时还可进行人工干预，因此，方法综合了现有加权多项式拟合法及线性规划拟合法的各自优点，且在计算上较目标规划拟合法更为简单。  相似文献