基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

吴文斌  唐华俊  杨鹏  周清波  陈仲新 《地理学报》2010,65(8)

在综合考虑自然、社会和经济等因子对粮食安全影响的基础上,选择了人均粮食占有量和人均GDP两个指标空间显性评价全球粮食安全状况。为此,本研究构建了3个模型,即空间EPIC模型、作物选择模型和IFPSIM模型,分别模拟作物单产、作物播种面积和作物价格。利用构建的评价框架和模型,以网格大小为6分弧度的地理单元为评价对象,选择水稻、玉米、小麦和大豆等4类全球主要作物类型,以2000年为初始年份,对未来2020年的全球粮食安全状况进行了评价。结果表明,到2020年,多数南亚国家和非洲国家,由于其人均粮食占有量和人均GDP两个指标值都显著降低,粮食供应不足和贫困一起将可能导致该区域存在粮食危机和饥饿风险。对于其他区域,日益增长的粮食需求可以通过本区域的粮食生产自给予以满足,或通过外部购买或粮食进口得到满足,总体上不存在粮食安全问题。为保障未来粮食安全,一方面要保护耕地数量和质量、防止土壤退化、增加资本投入、进行技术创新和升级,提高粮食综合生产能力,保障粮食的有效供给;另一方面加大农业补贴,切实提高农民收入,保障农民利益,增强农业购买力。同时,大力改善粮食流通和农产品贸易体制,通过外部市场来调节粮食供给;积极应对气候变化,提高农业生产对气候变化的适应能力,保证粮食生产的稳定。  相似文献   

Six decades of agricultural land use change in Bangladesh: Effects on crop diversity,productivity, food availability and the environment, 1948–2006     

Sanzidur Rahman 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2010,31(2):254-269

This paper provides a detailed analysis of agricultural land use change in Bangladesh over a 59‐year period (1948–2006) and examines how these have impacted crop diversity, productivity, food availability and the environment. The key findings of the analysis are: first, land use intensity has increased significantly over this period, mainly from the widespread adoption of a rice‐based Green Revolution technology package beginning in the early 1960s; second, contrary to expectation, crop diversity too has increased; third, although land productivity has increased significantly, declines in the productivity of fertilizers and pesticides raise doubts over sustaining agricultural growth; fourth, food availability has improved, with a reversal in the dietary energy imbalance in recent years despite a high population growth rate; and finally, the production environment has suffered with widespread soil nutrient depletion experienced in many agroecological regions. The policy implication points towards crop diversification as a desired strategy for agricultural growth to improve resource economy, productivity and efficiency in farming in Bangladesh.  相似文献   

地形畸变对偶极-偶极电阻率测深拟断面图的影响   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

吴小平  柳建新  段无悔  蓝燕 《地球物理学进展》2010,25(2):635-641

偶极－偶极剖面方法是一种非常流行的物探方法,但就地形对该方法的实质性影响及修正研究得比较少.我们就几种典型的地形畸变情况进行了正演计算,并绘制了拟断面图.通过对这些图形分析,可以看到在地形畸变处的拟断面图不能反映地下地质体的情况,且有效拟断面图是不连续的,需要分段处理,分级解释.  相似文献   

Modelling potential areas of groundwater development for agriculture in northern Ghana using GIS/RS     

G. Forkuor  P. Pavelic  E. Asare  E. Obuobie 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):437-451

Abstract

Groundwater development potential in northern Ghana (108 671 km²) has been assessed by combining spatial layers for five critical factors—recharge rate, regolith thickness, transmissivity, borehole success rate and static water level—through a multi-criteria analysis approach to rank development potential from the viewpoint of groundwater availability and accessibility at a resolution of 1 km². The results indicate a high potential for development in the study area, as about 70% of the area was found to have high to moderate groundwater availability, while 83% has high to medium groundwater accessibility. Comparing the two main hydrogeological environments, the Precambrian Basement rocks (PCB) area was found to generally have a higher groundwater development potential than the Voltaian Sedimentary rocks (VSB). More detailed investigation revealed that the VSB can produce a small proportion of exceptionally high-yielding boreholes that can support large-scale irrigation. A test of the reliability of results showed that generally, the majority of high- and low-yielding boreholes fall in areas predicted by the model as having high and low groundwater availability, respectively.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Forkuor, G., Pavelic, P., Asare, E., and Obuobie, E., 2013. Modelling potential areas of groundwater development for agriculture in northern Ghana using GIS/RS. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 437–451.  相似文献   

Environmental determinants of leech assemblage patterns in lotic and lenitic habitats     

N. Kubová  J. Schenková  M. Horsák 《Limnologica》2013,43(6):516-524

Leeches (Clitellata: Hirudinida) are abundant predators or ecto-parasites inhabiting various freshwater habitats; however many biotic and abiotic drivers of their assemblage patterns have been deduced rather than directly tested. To study species richness and composition changes in leech assemblages, 109 sites of running and stagnant water bodies were sampled in three regions of the Czech Republic in 2007–2010, together with several explanatory variables that are known or expected to be important predictors of leech distribution. In total, 17 species of leeches were recorded, varying between 0–7 and 0–9 species in lotic and lenitic sites, respectively. These differences in species richness of lotic and lenitic sites were highly significant, contrary to the abundances, which varied between 0–283 and 0–295 individuals. The main change in species composition was controlled by water temperature and morphological characteristics (e.g. substrate and cover of macrophytes), mostly reflecting the differences between lotic and lenitic habitats. We found the density of benthos (i.e. prey availability) to be the best predictor of species composition in both lotic and lenitic sites, together with the percentage of canopy cover. However, the other significant predictors (i.e. the substrate and water conductivity found to be significant in lotic sites, and the mean annual temperature and PO₄^3? in lenitic sites), differed between these habitats. Other than mean annual temperature and water temperature, which had different effects on species richness in lotic and lenitic sites, there were no other differences between lotic and lenitic sites in terms of how species richness and abundance responded to all other analyzed predictors. Our results stress the importance of prey availability and canopy for leech distribution patterns. Differences in the significant predictors of leech assemblage patterns between lotic and lenitic sites raise fundamental questions about the underlying mechanisms and ecological constraints to leech distribution in these main types of aquatic systems.  相似文献   

Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing,GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin,Thailand     

Krishna Bahadur KC 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):994-1014

Abstract

This paper assesses strategic water availability and use under different development pathways on a basin scale using remote sensing (RS), geographical information systems (GIS) and a spatial water budget model (SWBM). The SWBM was applied to the Upper Ing Basin in northern Thailand to investigate the spatial and temporal variations in the location of streams and water yields from different parts of the basin. The base simulation was carried out for the years 1998–2007 using a DEM and actual land-use data at 100-m resolution. The simulated stream network was compared with topographic maps under different flow conditions, which were successfully represented. The 10-year average simulated river flow rate was 1300 L/s, but it more than doubled during periods of heavy rainfall and decreased below 600 L/s in dry seasons. The total length of the streams (based on flow threshold of 25 L/s) on a typical day in the dry season differed by a factor of approx. 1.5. Agricultural water needs and possible extraction were assessed and presented by dividing the basin into 10 different zones based on the stream network. The results show that there is the potential for harvesting significant quantities of water at different spatial gradients with no initial water supply for irrigation. Monthly water yields for each zone were computed; the results varied from less than 50% to over 137% of the per hectare water yield for the entire basin. This variation was due to differences in topography and land cover. The impact of land use and climate change on streamwater availability was also studied. The basin shows very different hydrological responses. The changes in average river flow relative to the base simulation were +27.6%,??32.1%, +94% and +52.9% under deforestation, changing land use from paddy field to orchard, bare soil and increased rainfall scenarios, respectively.

Citation Bahadur KC, K. (2011) Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing, GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 994–1014.  相似文献   

The impact of upstream water abstractions on reservoir yield: the case of the Orós Reservoir in Brazil     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):857-867

Abstract

Water abstraction for irrigation upstream of a reservoir and its impact on reservoir yield and reliability are studied. Water demand and availability are strongly related in semi-arid environments where the irrigation sector is responsible for a large part of consumptive water use. Variations in water abstractions for irrigation depend on irrigation requirements per hectare and the size of the irrigated area. The Orós Reservoir in semi-arid Northeast Brazil has been taken as a case study. The results show that water abstracttion for irrigation is of significant importance for reservoir yield and reliability. Yield—reliability simulations for the study area show that taking into account upstream water abstraction for a reservoir yield of 20.0 m³/s results in a water-scarcity probability of 10% on an annual basis (90% reliability). This is only 5% if up-stream abstraction for irrigation is ignored. This study shows that observed land-use changes in the study area do have a significant impact on reservoir yield reliability. The variability of upstream water abstraction was found to be of low importance for reservoir yield and reliability.  相似文献   

Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: an integrated assessment     

Yanjun Shen  Taikan Oki  Shinjiro Kanae  Naota Hanasaki  Nobuyuki Utsumi  Masashi Kiguchi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1775-1793

Abstract

Changes in water resources availability, as affected by global climate warming, together with changes in water withdrawal, could influence the world water resources stress situation. In this study, we investigate how the world water resources situation will likely change under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by integrating water withdrawal projections. First, the potential changes in water resources availability are investigated by a multi-model analysis of the ensemble outputs of six general circulation models (GCMs) from organizations worldwide. The analysis suggests that, while climate warming might increase water resources availability to human society, there is a large discrepancy in the size of the water resource depending on the GCM used. Secondly, the changes in water-stressed basins and the number of people living in them are evaluated by two indices at the basin scale. The numbers were projected to increase in the future and possibly to be doubled in the 2050s for the three SRES scenarios A1b, A2 and B1. Finally, the relative impacts of population growth, water use change and climate warming on world water resources are investigated using the global highly water-stressed population as an overall indicator. The results suggest that population and socio-economic development are the major drivers of growing world water resources stress. Even though water availability was projected to increase under different warming scenarios, the reduction of world water stress is very limited. The principal alternative to sustainable governance of world water resources is to improve water-use efficiency globally by effectively reducing net water withdrawal.