一个简单海气耦合模式预报性能评估     

岳彩军  陆维松陶丽 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(5):704-709

对改进初始强迫风场后的Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式预报性能进行了全面评估。结果表明：1）耦合模式在20世纪90年代预报能力小于80年代；提前0～5个月的耦合模式预报能力小于同期持续预报能力，之后则相反；耦合模式对Nino3区指数预报能力最强。2）在1997／1998年El Nino事件期间，耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力大于其对中西太平洋SSTA场的预报能力，且提前0～2个月之后的耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力远远大于持续预报。  相似文献   

Laboratory Studies Of Wind Stress Over Surface Waves   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

B. Mete Uz  Mark A. Donelan  Tetsu Hara  Erik J. Bock 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,102(2):301-331

Simultaneous laboratory observations of wind speed, wind stress, and surfacewind-wave spectra are made under a variety of wind forcing patterns using cleanwater as well as water containing an artificial surfactant. Under typical experimentalconditions, more than half of the total stress is supported by the wave-induced stressrather than by the surface viscous stress. When the surfactant reduces the shortwind-wave spectra, the wind stress also decreases by as much as 20–30% at agiven wind speed. When the wind forcing is modulated in time, the wind stresstends to be higher under decreasing wind than under increasing wind at a givenwind speed, mainly because the response of short wind-wave spectra to varyingwind forcing is delayed in time. These examples clearly demonstrate that therelationship between the wind speed and the wind stress can be significantlymodified if the surface wave field is not in equilibrium with the wind forcing.Next, we examine whether the wind stress is estimated accurately if the wave-inducedstress by all surface wave components is explicitly evaluated by linear superpositionand is added to the surface viscous stress. It is assumed that the surface viscous stressis uniquely related to the wind speed, and that the wind input rate is determined by thelocal, reduced turbulent stress rather than the total stress. Our wind stress estimatesincluding the wave contributions agree well with observed wind stress values, evenif the surface wave field is away from its equilibrium with the wind in the presenceof surface films and/or under time-transient wind forcing. These observations stronglysuggest that the wind stress is accurately evaluated as a sum of the wave-induced stressand the surface viscous stress. At very high winds, our stress estimates tend to be lowerthan the observations. We suspect that this is because of the enhancement of wind stressover very steep (or breaking) short wind-waves.  相似文献   

阿尔金地区构造应力场及其对金属矿产分布的控制作用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈正乐  杨风等 《地质与勘探》2002,38(5):18-23

构造应力场研究可以为区域矿产预测提供依据。主要根据节理、擦痕的测试分析，结合区域构造解析，确定阿尔金山东西向拉配泉－－红柳沟构造带经历了三期不同方向的应力作用：印支期以前的南北向挤压作用，印支－燕山期的北西－南东向的挤压和中生代晚期－新生代北东东－南南西向的挤压；并利用有限元数值模拟前两期构造应力场的演变过程，进而讨论了区域构造应力场对内生金属矿产分布规律的控制作用指出了区域寻找大型内生金属矿产的有利地段。  相似文献   

断层周围的弹塑性区及其地质意义   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

武红岭  张利容 《地球学报》2002,23(1):11-16

采用弹塑性有限单元方法 ,通过模拟符合实际状况的逐步加载过程所引起应力场和塑性形变区的研究 ,得出如下结果 :①在塑性或韧性剪切形变情况下 ,断裂或形变带的共轭剪切角往往大于 4 5° ;②在双向挤压应力条件下 ,先存断裂的前缘部位没有拉伸应力存在 ,但可能有伸展形变发生 ;③与最大主压应力夹角为 3 0°～ 90°的断层前缘是偏应力的优势方位 ,容易发生塑性剪切形变 ,特别是夹角为 60°左右的断层是最易发生新的构造活动的断层 ;④多数断层两侧一定范围内以及断层内部是相对的低应力区。这些应力的低值区 ,非常有利于矿液和油气的运移、聚集和成藏。  相似文献   

影响地下应力状态的构造作用   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘瑞珣  吕古贤 《地球学报》2002,23(2):103-106

成岩成矿的外部条件中压力是很重要的因素。地下岩石所受的压力不仅来自上覆岩石的重力，而且来自构造力和热力及其它力。这些力合成一个三轴不等的应力状态，相当一个以最短轴为半径的球状应力迭加一个差应力。前者影响成岩成矿和变质作用，后者控制岩石变形和组构的变化。通过三维应变应力测量，这两部分力通过计算是可以区分开的，因而这将是建立地下深度测算新方法的一个基础。  相似文献   

A method to predict the group fissuring and faulting caused by regional groundwater decline     

E. Rojas  J. Arzate  M. Arroyo   《Engineering Geology》2002,65(4):20-260

Ground fissuring is a recurrent problem in many countries where water extraction surpasses the natural recharge of aquifers. Due to differential settlement, the soil layer undergoes deformation and cracks with serious consequences for civil infrastructure. Here, we propose an approximate analysis of the fissuring process that can be used to predict the location of cracks, which increasingly affect some middle- and large-sized cities in the world. For that purpose, the ground loss theory is applied to sediments overlying a sinusoidal-shaped graben. This analysis shows the existence of a tensile zone at the border of the graben with maximal values on its shoulder where tension cracks are more likely to appear. It also shows that soil deformation under differential settlement may evolve into ground faulting if water withdrawal continues. Finally, when a crack has completely developed, the tensile zone shifts towards the center of the graben, creating a new area for potential cracking and faulting.  相似文献   

Crack damage stress as a composite function of porosity and elastic matrix stiffness in dolomites and limestones   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

V. Palchik  Y. H. Hatzor 《Engineering Geology》2002,63(3-4):233-245

Twenty-five uniaxial compression tests were performed to determine stress at onset of dilation, referred to herein as “the crack damage stress,” in heterogeneous dolomites and limestones. A simplified model for crack damage stress (σ_cd) is developed here using porosity, elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio and three empirical coefficients. The model shows that when porosity decreases and elastic modulus increases, σ_cd rapidly increases and approaches its maximum value. On the other hand, when porosity increases and elastic modulus decreases, σ_cd rapidly decreases and approaches its minimum value. The proposed model is validated for six heterogeneous limestone and dolomite formations which are widely distributed in Israel.  相似文献   

井水位气压效率b值动态响应的断层-前兆场主应力组合模式          下载免费PDF全文

卜凡泉  杨燕 《地震工程学报》2002,24(4):356-360

统计鲁03，04井流水作业闰的气压效率b值发现，在华北及其周缘绝大多数地震前两井前兆异常形态各异，经分析井孔定位断层走向与地震前兆场主应力的组合模式不同是产生上述现象的根本原因。  相似文献   

半无限空间中圆形孔洞周围SH波的散射   总被引：14，自引：5，他引：14  

林宏  刘殿魁 《地震工程与工程振动》2002,22(2):9-16

建立了求解在含有圆形孔洞的弹性半空间中SH波散射与圆形孔洞附近动应力集中问题的解析方法。利用SH波散射的对称性和多极坐标的方法，构造了一个可以预先满足半空间自由表面上应力自由边界条件的圆形孔洞对SH波散射的波函数。利用这一波函数，则可将该问题转化成对一个圆形孔洞散射的求解问题。该问题的解答最终又可归结为对一组无究代数方程组的求解问题，并可利用截断有限项的方法对其进行计算，最后给出了有关圆形也洞附近动应力集中问题的算例和数值结果，并讨论了波数与圆孔至自由边界距离变化对动应力集中的影响。  相似文献   

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青海省形变及地温前兆特征分析   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

张晓清  顾永康 《高原地震》2002,14(1):70-75

通过对青海省地倾斜、地应力、深井地温3种前兆手段在昆仑山口西8．1级地震前异常的分析与研究，得出了强地震远场前兆的一些初步特征，并与近场前兆异常特征做了比较，这对该省今后强震短期预报将是有益的。  相似文献