A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Evidence for a seismic activity mainly constituted of hybrid events at Cayambe volcano,Ecuador. Interpretation in a iced-domes volcano context     

Bertrand Guillier  Jean-Luc Chatelain 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(8):499-506

The high activity level of Hybrid Events (HE) detected beneath the Cayambe volcano since 1989 has been more thoroughly investigated with data from a temporary array. The unusual HE spectral content allows separating a high-frequency signal riding on a low-frequency one, with a probable single source. HEs are interpreted as high frequency VT events, produced by the interaction between magmatic heat and an underground water system fed by thaw water from the summital glacier, which trigger simultaneous low-frequency fluid resonance in the highly fractured adjacent medium. Pure VTs are interpreted as ‘aborted’ HEs occurring probably in the oldest and coldest part of the volcano complex. To cite this article: B. Guillier, J.-L. Chatelain, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alan R. Nelson  Harvey M. Kelsey 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(3):354-365

Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.  相似文献   

New Approach for Estimation of Static and Seismic Active Earth Pressure   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Deepankar Choudhury  Shailesh Singh 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(1):117-127

To estimate static and seismic active earth pressure (P_ad) on a rigid retaining wall, numerical analyses using different step sizes have been carried out in this paper, based on the modified Culmann line method by considering Coulomb’s planar rupture surface. Equivalent pseudo-static seismic forces are considered in the analysis. A new concept of modified unit weight by considering ground surcharge is introduced under static and seismic conditions. By numerical analysis, area of soil (A) has been estimated to obtain the ratio of A/A₀ where A₀ is θh², θ is the angle between retaining structure and ground surface and h is the vertical height of the wall. This ratio remains constant for a particular type of soil and has been used to estimate the maximum active earth pressure using force diagram. Results are provided in tabular form for easy calculation of the coefficient of static and seismic active earth pressure. Present results by considering the new technique, compares well with the results obtained by earlier researchers.  相似文献   

Geothermal evidence for fluid flow through the gas hydrate stability field off Central Chile—transient flow related to large subduction zone earthquakes?     

Ingo Grevemeyer  Norbert Kaul  Juan L. Diaz-Naveas 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):461-468

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Gravity signature of crustal subduction inferred from numerical modelling     

Anna Maria Marotta  Elisa Spelta  Catia Rizzetto 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(2):923-938

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Inversion for rheological parameters from post-seismic surface deformation associated with the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, Chile   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Francisco Lorenzo-Martín  Frank Roth  Rongjiang Wang 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,164(1):75-87

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Centrifuge modelling-based verification of response spectra design methods for some vulnerable structures     

S. P. G. Madabhushi  C. H. Lawson 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(4):793-808

Residential RC framed structures suffered heavily during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India. These types of structures also saw severe damage in other earthquakes such as the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey and 921 Ji-Ji earthquake in Taiwan. In this paper the seismic response of residential structures was investigated using physical modelling. Idealised soft storey and top heavy, two degrees of freedom (2DOF) portal frame structures were developed and tested on saturated and dry sand models at 25 g using the Schofield Centre 10-m Beam Centrifuge. It was possible to recreate observed field behaviour using these models. As observed in many of the recent earthquakes, soft storey structures were found to be particularly vulnerable to seismic loads. Elastic response spectra methods are often used in the design of simple portal frame structures. The seismic risk of these structures can be significantly increased due to modifications such as removal of a column or addition of heavy water tanks on the roof. The experimental data from the dynamic centrifuge tests on such soft storey or top-heavy models was used to evaluate the predictions obtained from the response spectra. Response spectra were able to predict seismic response during small to moderate intensity earthquakes, but became inaccurate during strong earthquakes and when soil structure interaction effects became important. Re-evaluation of seismic risk of such modified structures is required and time domain analyses suggested by building codes such as IBC, UBC or NEHRP may be more appropriate.  相似文献   

The Physico-Chemical Properties of a Subducted Slab from Garnet Zonation Patterns (Sesia Zone, Western Alps)   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

KONRAD-SCHMOLKE  MATTHIAS; BABIST  JOCHEN; HANDY  MARK R.; O'BRIEN  PATRICK J. 《Journal of Petrology》2006,47(11):2123-2148

Garnets in continentally derived high-pressure (HP) rocks ofthe Sesia Zone (Western Alps) exhibit three different chemicalzonation patterns, depending on sample locality. Comparisonof observed garnet zonation patterns with thermodynamicallymodelled patterns shows that the different patterns are causedby differences in the water content of the subducted protolithsduring prograde metamorphism. Zonation patterns of garnets inwater-saturated host rocks show typical prograde chemical zonationswith steadily increasing pyrope content and increasing XMg,together with bell-shaped spessartine patterns. In contrast,garnets in water-undersaturated rocks have more complex zonationpatterns with a characteristic decrease in pyrope and XMg betweencore and inner rim. In some cases, garnets show an abrupt compositionalchange in core-to-rim profiles, possibly due to water-undersaturationprior to HP metamorphism. Garnets from both water-saturatedand water-undersaturated rocks show signs of intervening growthinterruptions and core resorption. This growth interruptionresults from bulk-rock depletion caused by fractional garnetcrystallization. The water content during burial influences significantly thephysical properties of the subducted rocks. Due to enhancedgarnet crystallization, water-undersaturated rocks, i.e. thoselacking a free fluid phase, become denser than their water-saturatedequivalents, facilitating the subduction of continental material.Although water-bearing phases such as phengite and epidote arestable up to eclogite-facies conditions in these rocks, dehydrationreactions during subduction are lacking in water-undersaturatedrocks up to the transition to the eclogite facies, due to thethermodynamic stability of such hydrous phases at high P–Tconditions. Our calculations show that garnet zonation patternsstrongly depend on the mineral parageneses stable during garnetgrowth and that certain co-genetic mineral assemblages causedistinct garnet zonation patterns. This observation enablesinterpretation of complex garnet growth zonation patterns interms of garnet-forming reactions and water content during HPmetamorphism, as well determination of detailed P–T paths. KEY WORDS: dehydration; high-pressure metamorphism; Sesia Zone; subduction; thermodynamic modelling  相似文献   

Evolution from Oceanic Subduction to Continental Collision: a Case Study from the Northern Tibetan Plateau Based on Geochemical and Geochronological Data   总被引：41，自引：0，他引：41  

SONG  SHUGUANG; ZHANG  LIFEI; NIU  YAOLING; SU  LI; SONG  BIAO; LIU  DUNYI 《Journal of Petrology》2006,47(3):435-455

Two apparently distinct, sub-parallel, paleo-subduction zonescan be recognized along the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau:the North Qilian Suture Zone (oceanic-type) with ophioliticmélanges and high-pressure eclogites and blueschistsin the north, and the North Qaidam Belt (continental-type) inthe south, an ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic terrane comprisingpelitic and granitic gneisses, eclogites and garnet peridotites.Eclogites from both belts have protoliths broadly similar tomid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) or oceanic island basalts (OIB)in composition with overlapping metamorphic ages (480–440Ma, with weighted mean ages of 464 ± 6 Ma for North Qilianand 457 ± 7 Ma for North Qaidam), determined by zirconU–Pb sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe dating.Coesite-bearing zircon grains in pelitic gneisses from the NorthQaidam UHP Belt yield a peak metamorphic age of 423 ±6 Ma, 40 Myr younger than the age of eclogite formation, anda retrograde age of 403 ± 9 Ma. These data, combinedwith regional relationships, allow us to infer that these twoparallel belts may represent an evolutionary sequence from oceanicsubduction to continental collision, and continental underthrusting,to final exhumation. The Qilian–Qaidam Craton was probablya fragment of the Rodinia supercontinent with a passive marginand extended oceanic lithosphere in the north, which was subductedbeneath the North China Craton to depths >100 km at c. 423Ma and exhumed at c. 403 Ma (zircon rim ages in pelitic gneiss). KEY WORDS: HP and UHP rocks; subduction belts; zircon SHRIMP ages; Northern Tibetan Plateau  相似文献