Ensemble simulation of land evapotranspiration in China based on a multi-forcing and multi-model approach     

Jianguo Liu  Binghao Jia  Zhenghui Xie  Chunxiang Shi 《大气科学进展》2016,33(6):673-684

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model(LSM) simulations of land evapotranspiration(ET), we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS(Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Qian] and four LSMs(BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5), to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over mainland China during 1982–2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean(Ens Mean) could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates(Obs MTE). For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens Mean was closer to Obs MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs MTE and Ens Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982–98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Ni ?no event occurred, the Ens Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.  相似文献   

强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用     

李娟  曾晓东  陈红  蔡其发 《大气科学》2016,40(6):1117-1126

本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法（较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等）不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息（误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度）,例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。  相似文献   

城区地表形变差分TomoSAR监测方法     

王爱春  向茂生  汪丙南 《测绘学报》2016,45(12):1413-1422

压缩感知技术(CS)的差分TomoSAR技术解决了中高分辨率SAR数据在城区出现的叠掩问题,实现了城区地表形变信息的重构,但是该方法仅利用了目标的稀疏特性并没有考虑目标的结构特性,对具有这两种特性的目标进行重构时其性能较差。针对这一问题,本文采用联合Khatri-Rao子空间和块压缩感知(KRS-BCS),提出了一种差分SAR层析成像方法。该方法依据目标的结构特性和重构观测矩阵具有的Khatri-Rao积性质,将稀疏结构目标的差分TomoSAR问题转化为Khatri-Rao子空间下的BCS问题,然后对目标进行块稀疏的l1/l2范数最优化求解,最后通过理论分析和仿真试验对分辨能力和重构估计性能进行了定性和定量评价,仿真结果表明本文所采用的KRS-BCS方法不仅保持了高分辨率的优点,而且有效地降低了虚假目标出现的概率,大幅度提高了散射点准确重构概率,切实可行地解决了CS方法的不足。应用实例研究中,利用34景Envisat卫星ASAR时间序列影像对日本千叶县茂原市城区进行地表形变监测,并以一等水准点和实时测量的GPS站点观测数据作为参考形变结果进行验证,试验结果表明采用KRS-BCS方法反演的结果与参考形变结果保持了良好的一致性且形变速率整体偏差也较小,实现了较高精度的城区地表形变估计。  相似文献   

船闸泄水作用下引航道中动水冲沙规律          下载免费PDF全文

徐进超  李云  宣国祥  刘本芹  金英 《水科学进展》2016,27(2):186-195

结合工程实际,研究利用船闸泄水进行下游引航道清淤,对减少清淤成本、提高通航效率有着重要的工程价值。建立枢纽及船闸下游引航道的二维水沙数学模型,采用已有模型试验对水流场和泥沙场进行验证。研究引航道及口门区的泥沙淤积规律,在此基础上,分析船闸输水系统的水力特性,研究了不同冲刷流量、冲刷时间和初始淤积厚度下引航道及口门区的冲刷效果,得出船闸泄水量与引航道及口门区最大淤积厚度的关系。结果表明,在同一初始淤积地形和冲刷流量下,引航道及口门区的最大淤积厚度与冲刷时间呈线性变化,冲刷流量越大,泥沙厚度下降的斜率越大。淤积厚度低于一定值后,随冲刷时间的增加,冲刷效果开始减弱。  相似文献   

基于变动范围法(RVA)的信江水文改变及生态流量研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘贵花  朱婧瑄  熊梦雅  王点  齐述华 《水文》2016,36(1):51-57

选择信江下游梅港站1950~2010年日径流量,根据流域大型水库界牌枢纽运行时间将梅港站径流序列分为建库前(1953~2001)和建库后(2002~2010)两个时段。采用变动范围法(Range of Variability Approach,简称:RVA)分析水库运行对下游梅港站流域生态水文指标改变度,并分析了信江下游生态流量。研究表明:33个水文指标有22个发生中高度改变,11个指标发生低度改变,其水文综合改变度为0.51,属于中度改变;梅港站生态流量值均在RVA阈值内,基本能够保持河流稳定流量,但2月、7~9月及12月河道生态流量大于RVA下限。可适量增大水库下泄水量,降低对下游河段生态系统的威胁。  相似文献   

Land-surface segmentation as a method to create strata for spatial sampling and its potential for digital soil mapping     

L. Drăguţ  A. Dornik 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(7):1359-1376

Sampling efforts are constrained by limited availability of resources. Therefore, methods to reduce the number of samples, while still achieving reasonable accuracy are needed. Land-surface segmentation (LSS) has proven a powerful technique to partition digital elevation models (DEMs) and their derivatives into relatively homogeneous areas, which can be further employed as support in soil sampling. Though topography is one of the main soil forming factors, a robust assessment of the potential of this technique to digital soil mapping (DSM) is still missing. In this study, we aimed at evaluating the potential of LSS in stratifying a landscape into relatively homogeneous areas, which can be used as strata for guiding the selection of sampling points in DSM. The experiments were carried out in two study areas where soil samples were available. Land-surface derivatives were derived from DEMs and segmented with a tool based on the multiresolution segmentation algorithm, into objects considered as homogeneous soil-landscape divisions. Thus, one sample was randomly selected within each segment from the existing sample data, based on which predictions of soil classes/sub-orders and properties, i.e. soil texture and A-horizon thickness, were made. Results were compared with predictions based on simple random sampling (SRS) and conditioned Latin hypercube (cLHS). The segmentation-based sampling (SBS) scheme performed better than SRS and cLHS schemes in predicting the A-horizon thickness, soil texture fractions and soil classes, showing a high potential of LSS in stratifying a landscape for the purposes of DSM. The novelty of this study is in the way strata are constructed, rather than in the sampling design itself. Further research is needed to demonstrate the value of a SBS design for practical use. The analyses presented here further highlight the importance of considering locally adaptive techniques in optimization of sampling schemes and predictions of soil properties.  相似文献   

Possibilities of land use change analysis in a mountainous rural area: a methodological approach     

Szilárd Szabó  László Bertalan  Ágnes Kerekes  Tibor J. Novák 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(4):708-726

Decreasing population density is a current trend in the European Union, and causes a lower environmental impact on the landscape. However, besides the desirable effect on the regeneration processes of semi-natural forest ecosystems, the lack of traditional management techniques can also lead to detrimental ecological processes. In this study we investigated the land use pattern changes in a micro-region (in North-Eastern Hungary) between 1952 and 2005, based on vectorised land use data from archive aerial photos. We also evaluated the methodology of comparisons using GIS methods, fuzzy sets and landscape metrics. We found that both GIS methods and statistical analysis of landscape metrics resulted in more or less the same findings. Differences were not as relevant as was expected considering the general tendencies of the past 60 years in Hungary. The change in the annual rate of forest recovery was 0.12%; settlements extended their area by an annual rate of 3.04%, while grasslands and arable lands had a net loss in their area within the studied period (0.60% and 0.89%, respectively). The kappa index showed a smaller similarity (~60%) between these dates but the fuzzy kappa and the aggregation index, taking into account both spatial and thematic errors, gave a more reliable result (~70–80% similarity). Landscape metrics on patch and class level ensured the possibility of a detailed analysis. We arrived at a similar outcome but were able to verify all the calculations through statistical tests. With this approach we were able to reveal significant (p < 0.05) changes; however, effect sizes did not show large magnitudes. Comparing the methods of revealing landscape change, the approach of landscape metrics was the most effective approach, as it was independent of spatial errors and ensuring a multiple way of interpretation.  相似文献   

基于阈值可调切换系统的多翅膀混沌吸引子设计及电路仿真     

石擎宇  黄霞 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(4):467-473

本文提出了一种通过调节一类状态依赖切换系统的阈值来生成多翅膀混沌吸引子的设计方案.首先,设计了两个类Lorenz子系统;然后,基于这两个子系统构造了一个状态依赖于阈值的切换策略,从而构造了一类状态依赖于阈值的切换系统;最后,通过调整切换系统的阈值来改变鞍焦平衡点的个数与分布,使得该切换系统能够产生4-6-8翅膀的混沌吸引子.此外,根据切换系统的状态方程设计了该系统的模拟电路,电路仿真结果与数值仿真结果一致.实验结果证实：该设计方案可以在不增加系统维数或无需设计复杂非线性函数的情况下生成多翅膀混沌吸引子.  相似文献   

Verification of significant wave representation method     

Winyu Rattanapitikon   《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(11-12):1259-1270

The significant wave representation method is the simplest method for computing the transformation of significant wave height across-shore. However, many engineers are reluctant to use this method because many researchers have pointed out that the method possibly contains a large estimation error. Nevertheless, Rattanapitikon et al. [Rattanapitikon, W., Karunchintadit, R., Shibayama, T., 2003. Irregular wave height transformation using representative wave approach. Coastal Engineering Journal, JSCE 45(3), 489–510.] showed that the wave representation method could be used to compute the transformation of root mean square wave heights. It may also be possible to use it for computing the significant wave height transformation. Therefore, this study was carried out to examine the possibility of simulating significant wave height transformation across-shore by using the significant wave representation method. Laboratory data from small- and large-scale wave flumes were used to calibrate and examine the models. Six regular wave models were applied directly to irregular waves by using the significant wave height and spectral peak period. The examination showed that three regular wave models (with new coefficients) could be used to compute the significant wave height transformation with very good accuracy. On the strength of both accuracy and simplicity of the three models, a suitable model is recommended for computing the significant wave height transformation. The suitable model was also modified for better predictions. The modified model (with different coefficients) can be used to compute either regular wave height or significant wave height transformation across-shore.  相似文献   

Introduction: Interaction between environment and fisheries—The role of stakeholder participation     

Riku Varjopuro  Tim Gray  Jenny Hatchard  Felix Rauschmayer  Heidi Wittmer 《Marine Policy》2008

This paper is an introduction to the special issue on a role of participation in dealing with the interactions between environment and fisheries. In this introduction, we explore the recent discussion on the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management (EBAFM) and extract important points for implementation of EBAFM from the social science literature on participation and participatory processes in environmental management. The introduction finishes by describing the analytical framework for studying participatory processes.  相似文献