Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Milind Kandlikar  James Risbey  Suraje Dessai 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):443-455

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Michael Engel  Claudia Notarnicola  Stefano Endrizzi  Giacomo Bertoldi 《水文研究》2017,31(23):4151-4168

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.  相似文献   

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼     

汪金涛  陈新军  Kevin W. Staples  陈勇 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(2):94-101

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼，Illex argentinus，巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K，DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间，资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间，其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY，资源处在良好状态，没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。  相似文献   

Population abundance and seasonal migration patterns indicated by commercial catch-per-unit-effort of hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) in the northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem     

JN Kathena  D Yemane  N Bahamon  T Jansen 《African Journal of Marine Science》2018,40(2):197-209

We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.  相似文献   

eLoran系统新型信号波形设计及其性能评估          下载免费PDF全文

李婉清  刘中伟  李实锋  叶清琳 《全球定位系统》2020,45(2):13-20

增强型罗兰导航系统(eLoran)作为全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)的备份系统,是国家定位导航授时(PNT)安全的重要基础设施.针对目前标准eLoran信号存在易受交叉干扰、天波干扰,通信数据传输速率低等的问题,本文基于标准罗兰信号体制提出了两种波形改进方法(衰减函数法与对称波形法)并对新型波形进行性能评估.实验结果表明,两种方法能够有效缩短波形持续时间,加速后沿波形下降,减小发射机功耗.对称波形法能够大幅减小波形持续时间,但缩短波形持续时间也将改变原信号波形的频谱特性,利用衰减函数法可以最大程度保证信号的频谱性能.综合分析可知,新型波形能够有效利用时域资源,空余的时间可用于增加传输信号,进而提高数据调制技术的性能.  相似文献   

不动产大数据在城市更新潜力空间评估中的应用     

汪洋  唐华  潘进  李洋  褚峤  刘雨晴 《测绘通报》2020,(12):71

我国在发展新常态与城市精细化治理背景下，对城市更新精准施策与量化评估提出了更高的要求。城市更新过程与人、地、房的相互作用紧密相关。不动产登记数据包含丰富的人、地、房空间属性信息，能够在城市的建成环境评估过程中发挥重要作用，现有城市更新评估模型几乎均未使用这一数据支持。本文从大数据量化评估视角出发，在文献研究的基础上，利用不动产登记大数据构建城市更新潜力评估体系，建立评估方法，并以南京市为应用案例，在街道（乡、镇）尺度上，对评估对象区域进行城市更新潜力的量化评估，实现精细化尺度的空间分析，辅助城市更新方向与选址，引导精准施策。  相似文献   

Time to talk knowledge     

Mike Taylor 《New Zealand geographer》2019,75(2):85-92

As part of the secondary school qualification repackaging, the Ministry of Education has requested the geography education community define what constitutes their “critical body of knowledge.” In this article, I discuss three knowledge‐oriented themes focused on: (a) recent assessment trends in geography; (b) the predictive value of NCEA Level 3 geography with 100‐level success and (c) the nature of knowledge as expressed by the New Zealand Curriculum and assessment. Taken together, these themes suggest a need for a serious conversation about knowledge in school geography, as a pre‐cursor to the re‐design of the geography standards matrix.  相似文献   

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed          下载免费PDF全文

N. Ohara  M. L. Kavvas  Z. Q. Chen  L. Liang  M. Anderson  J. Wilcox  L. Mink 《水文研究》2014,28(7):3053-3066

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于决策树分类的大屯矿区地物信息提取及矿区污染分析     

于海若  燕琴  董春  战丽丽 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(4):67-69,72

本文在对国内外遥感图像分类方法充分研究分析的基础上,选择决策树分类法对大屯矿区的Landsat 8遥感图像进行分类研究。选取样本提取并分析研究区典型地类光谱特征曲线,依据光谱曲线特征和归一化植被指数建立了土地利用分类决策树模型,通过反复试验和修正,筛选出适宜大屯矿区地物分类的决策树最优阈值,对研究区进行分类和精度评价,最后通过分类结果对研究区的水体污染状况进行简要分析。  相似文献   

雅安芦山4.20震后县级单元生态系统风险评价     

米琳迪  樊敏  周英  王青 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(4):55-59

区域生态风险评价是对各种生态风险及环境问题进行评价和管理的重要手段。针对雅安地震灾区特殊的自然地理及生态环境特征,选取芦山县为研究对象,采用遥感、GIS及SPSS统计分析的方法,通过风险源、风险受体、暴露和易损性分析,建立生态风险综合评价模型,划分生态风险区类型,进而提出生态风险管理对策。结果表明:1)微度和低度生态风险区集中分布在高海拔的森林及草地生态系统,该区生物多样性丰富,抗干扰能力较强,地质灾害及人类活动影响较小;2)中度和高度生态风险区具有沿农田及建设用地生态系统集聚分布的特征,该区地质灾害频繁,地壳活动性较强,生态系统抵抗灾害的能力较差。研究结果可为地震灾区防御、规避风险及安全选址提供科学依据。  相似文献