Abrupt climate change: An alternative view   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Carl Wunsch 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(2):191-203

Hypotheses and inferences concerning the nature of abrupt climate change, exemplified by the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, are reviewed. There is little concrete evidence that these events are more than a regional Greenland phenomenon. The partial coherence of ice core δ¹⁸O and CH₄ is a possible exception. Claims, however, of D-O presence in most remote locations cannot be distinguished from the hypothesis that many regions are just exhibiting temporal variability in climate proxies with approximately similar frequency content. Further suggestions that D-O events in Greenland are generated by shifts in the North Atlantic ocean circulation seem highly implausible, given the weak contribution of the high latitude ocean to the meridional flux of heat. A more likely scenario is that changes in the ocean circulation are a consequence of wind shifts. The disappearance of D-O events in the Holocene coincides with the disappearance also of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. It is thus suggested that D-O events are a consequence of interactions of the windfield with the continental ice sheets and that better understanding of the wind field in the glacial periods is the highest priority. Wind fields are capable of great volatility and very rapid global-scale teleconnections, and they are efficient generators of oceanic circulation changes and (more speculatively) of multiple states relative to great ice sheets. Connection of D-O events to the possibility of modern abrupt climate change rests on a very weak chain of assumptions.  相似文献   

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?     

Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.  相似文献   

Impact of Flood Disasters on Taiwan in the Last Quarter Century     

Wei-Hsien Teng  Ming-Hsi Hsu  Chung-Hsing Wu  Albert S. Chen 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(1-2):191-207

The increasing natural disasters, especially floods during the last quarter century, are raising the economic losses in Taiwan. The most severe hazard in Taiwan is flooding induced by typhoons and storms in summer and autumn. By comparing the rivers around the world, the ones in Taiwan have the steepest slopes, the largest discharge per unit drainage area, and the shortest time of concentrations. Rapid urbanization without proper land uses managements usually worsen the flood problems. Consequently, flood hazards mitigation has become the most essential task for Taiwan to deal with. Although the government keeps improving flood defense structures, the flood damage grows continuously. In this article, possible flood mitigation strategies are identified for coping with complex environmental and social decisions with flood risk involved.  相似文献   

Time domain Gauss–Newton seismic waveform inversion in elastic media     

Dong-Hoon Sheen  Kagan Tuncay  Chang-Eob Baag  Peter J. Ortoleva 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(3):1373-1384

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The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China — Reply     

F.C. Dai  C.F. Lee  J.H. Deng  L.G. Tham 《Geomorphology》2006,73(3-4):277-278

A short reply to discussion by Chanson.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality and generating conditions in the Tay catchment, Scotland from 1200 to present   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lindsey J McEwen 《Area》2006,38(1):47-64

The new maximum recorded river flows in Scotland since 1988 have triggered widespread interest in whether floods are becoming more frequent and in the conditions that generate floods of different magnitudes and frequencies. There are questions about the longer-term variability in flood-generating characteristics, and whether there are past analogues for present hydroclimatic variability. The present paper builds on previous work reconstructing a detailed historic flood chronology for the Tay, the largest catchment in Scotland, and its tributaries over the past 800 years, extending the gauged discharge record (1952 onwards). It categorizes flood-generating factors in the Tay catchment and analyses the hydro-meteorological conditions that have generated extreme and moderate floods over a historical period. This work is placed in a broader literature context of historical 'climaxes of storminess', periods of higher storm frequency, flood patterns observed in Scotland and Europe during the Little Ice Age and longer-term rainfall and temperature patterns. The paper concludes that the variability in flood-generating characteristics is highly dependent on the timescale of observation. Inevitably the relative dominance of winter and early spring flooding can vary from year to year and within specific time-periods, but so can the level of augmentation of the flood series with summer and autumn floods to produce notable 'flood years' and flood clusters. The Tay provides a good 'all-Scotland surrogate' for historical flood patterns, reflecting its gathering areas in eastern and western Scotland. The value of a historical approach to the assessment of flood seasonality and generating characteristics is clearly demonstrated.  相似文献   

GIS-based flood hazard mapping at different administrative scales: A case study in Gangetic West Bengal, India   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Joy Sanyal  X.X. Lu 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(2):207-220

This paper addresses the need for an efficient and cost-effective methodology for preparing flood hazard maps in data poor countries, particularly those under a monsoon regime where floods pose a recurrent danger. Taking Gangetic West Bengal, India, as an example and using available historical data from government agencies, the study compiled a regional map indicating hazard prone subregional areas for further detailed investigation, thereby isolating actual high risk localities. Using a GIS (Geographical Information System), a composite hazard index was devised incorporating variables of flood frequency, population density, transportation networks, access to potable water, and availability of high ground and maximum risk zones were mapped accordingly. A digital elevation model derived from high resolution imagery available in the public domain was used to calculate elevated areas suitable for temporary shelter during a flood. Selecting administrative units of analysis at the lowest possible scales – rural development blocks (regional) and revenue villages (subregional) – also ensures that hazard mapping is prepared in line with the existing rural planning and administrative authorities responsible for remedial intervention.  相似文献   

Effect of lithospheric root on decompression melting in plume–lithosphere interaction models     

A. Manglik  U. R. Christensen 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,164(1):259-270

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An Assessment of Structural Measures for Flood-prone Lowlands with High Population Density along the Keelung River in Taiwan     

Lung-Sheng Hsieh  Ming-Hsi Hsu  Ming-Hsu Li 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(1-2):133-152

Midstream of the Keelung River Basin in Northern Taiwan has become highly urbanized and densely populated area. Flood inundation along riversides frequently occurred during typhoons or rainstorms. Three protection measures, including constructions of high-level protection levees, a diversion channel, and a detention reservoir, were proposed for flood mitigation. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the flood mitigation performance of the three proposed structural measures by using combined hydrologic analyses and hydraulic routings. A semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoirs rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the surface runoff. Furthermore, a 1-D dynamic channel routing model was coupled with a two-dimensional inundation model to simulate the hydraulic characteristics of river flooding and overland flow. Simulation results of flood stages, runoff peak discharges, and inundation extent under design rainfall scenarios were chosen as the criteria for evaluation. The results showed a diversion channel is superior to the other two measures for flood mitigation of the study area. After the process of environmental impact assessment, a revised diversion channel approach has been approved for construction as the major structural measure.  相似文献   

地震信号的相位恢复及误差分析     

WU Yuan-yuan LIU Cai WANG Dian WANG Shi-yu College of GeoExploration Science  Technology  Jilin University  Changchun  China 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2006,(Z2)

常见的几种地震子波有:零相位子波、最小相位子波、最大相位子波和混合相位子波。以不同类型的信号为激发子波,对不同地层模型合成地震道。仅用原始合成地震道记录的振幅谱来恢复原始记录,讨论不同方法下,由于激发子波的不同,对比分析原始记录与恢复记录的差异,及其恢复效果。  相似文献