数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王太微  陈德辉 《广西气象》2007,28(1):6-12,24

数值预报走过了百年的历史（V．Bjerknes，1904），取得了了不起的成就，预报准确率有了很大的提高。但是，考虑到大气的非线性作用以及初值和模式造成的数值预报不确定性，要提高传统的单一确定性预报的技巧越来越难。基于大气初值的敏感性试验，Lorenz提出了数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报。 通过介绍集合数值预报的基本思想和方法；并针对初值和模式的不确定性，概述现有集合数值预报成员的产生方法及国内外的研究进展；同时解释怎样检验集合预报的结果的论述，如何从众多的集合预报产品中提炼有用的信息及预报产品的释用。  相似文献   

On the information content of forest transpiration measurements for identifying canopy conductance model parameters     

S. C. Dekker  W. Bouten  F. C. Bosveld 《水文研究》2001,15(14):2821-2832

Generally, forest transpiration models contain model parameters that cannot be measured independently and therefore are tuned to fit the model results to measurements. Only unique parameter estimates with high accuracy can be used for extrapolation in time or space. However, parameter identification problems may occur as a result of the properties of the data set. Time‐series of environmental conditions, which control the forest transpiration, may contain periods with redundant or coupled information, so called collinearity, and other combinations of conditions may be measured only with difficulty or incompletely. The aim of this study is to select environmental conditions that yield a unique parameter set of a canopy conductance model. The parameter identification method based on localization of information (PIMLI) was used to calculate the information content of every individual artificial transpiration measurement. It is concluded that every measurement has its own information with respect to a parameter. Independent criteria were assessed to localize the environmental conditions, which contain measurements with most information. These measurements were used in separate subdata sets to identify the parameters. The selected measurements do not overlap and the accuracies of the parameter estimates are maximized. Measurements that were not selected do not contain additional information that can be used to further maximize the parameter accuracy. Thereupon, the independent criteria were used to select eddy correlation measurements and parameters were identified with only the selected measurements. It is concluded that, for this forest and data set, PIMLI identifies a unique parameter set with high accuracy, whereas conventional calibrations on subdata sets give non‐unique parameter estimates. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ground motion prediction with the empirical Green's function technique: an assessment of uncertainties and confidence level     

Ronan Pavic  Martin G. Koller  Pierre-Yves Bard  Corinne Lacave-Lachet 《Journal of Seismology》2000,4(1):59-77

An assessment of uncertainties for ground motion predictions with the aid of the empirical Green's function (EGF) technique is presented. The main input parameters were identified, and their respective uncertainties were assessed by means of an international expert inquiry. The repercussion of these input uncertainties on the final ground motion estimates were investigated by means of the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. The mean ground motion estimates (response spectra) and their standard deviations were compared with results obtained from empirical attenuation laws. The most sensitive input parameter turned out to be the seismic moment corresponding to the EGF. In general, if the source parameters are well determined, equivalent uncertainties, statistically speaking, can be expected from the EGF technique and from the application of attenuation laws. Therefore, if EGFs with well known source parameters are available, the EGF technique seems to be preferable: site effects are automatically taken into account, and physically realistic acceleration time histories can be obtained. However, further investigations on the reliability of the EGF technique should be performed, and finally, it is recalled that the EGF technique is based on the assumption of linearity. If conditions are such that this assumption cannot be maintained, the EGF technique should be combined with non-linear geotechnical methods.  相似文献   

The Uncertainty of Mesoscale Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South China and the Ensemble Simulations     

陈静  薛纪善  颜宏 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(1):1-18

1. IntroductionHeavy rain is a kind of severe natural calamitythat influences South China. After decades of years oftests and theoretical exploration by Chinese scientists,significant progresses have been achieved in its predic-tion and basic theoretical studies (Huang, 1986; Xue,1999; Zhou et al., 2003). Currently, the mesoscale nu-merical model has already been employed as one of themajor tools in the prediction and research on heavyrain in South China, promoting considerably the ac-curac…  相似文献   

Improving the SWAT forest module for enhancing water resource projections: A case study in the St. Croix River basin     

Qichun Yang  Xuesong Zhang  James E. Almendinger  Maoyi Huang  Guoyong Leng  Yuyu Zhou  Kaiguang Zhao  Ghassem R. Asrar  Xia Li  Jiali Qiu 《水文研究》2019,33(5):864-875

Insufficiently calibrated forest parameters of the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) may introduce uncertainties to water resource projections in forested watersheds. In this study, we improved SWAT forest parameterization and phosphorus cycling representations to better simulate forest ecosystems in the St. Croix River basin, and we further examined how those improvements affected model projections of streamflow, sediment, and nitrogen export under future climate conditions. Simulations with improved forest parameters substantially reduced model estimates of water, sediment, and nitrogen fluxes relative to those based on default parameters. Differences between improved and default projections can be attributed to the enhanced representation of forest water consumption, nutrient uptake, and protection of soil from erosion. Better representation of forest ecosystems in SWAT contributes to constraining uncertainties in water resource projections. Results of this study highlight the importance of improving SWAT forest ecosystem representations in projecting delivery of water, sediment, and nutrients from land to rivers in response to climate change, particularly for watersheds with large areas of forests. Improved forest parameters and the phosphorus weathering algorithms developed in this study are expected to help enhance future applications of SWAT to investigate hydrological and biogeochemical consequences of climate change.  相似文献   

Uncertainties in Quantitatively Estimating the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau          下载免费PDF全文

DUAN An-Min  WANG Mei-Rong  XIAO Zhi-Xiang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(1)

As a huge,intense,and elevated atmospheric heat source(AHS) approaching the mid-troposphere in spring and summer,the Tibetan Plateau(TP) thermal forcing is perceived as an important factor contributing to the formation and variation of the Asian summer monsoon.Despite numerous studies devoted to determine the strength and change of the thermal forcing of the TP on the basis of various data sources and methods,uncertainties remain in quantitative estimation of the AHS and will persist for the following reasons:(1) Routine meteorological stations cover only limited regions and show remarkable spatial inhomogeneity with most distributed in the central and eastern plateau.Moreover,all of these stations are situated at an altitude below 5000 m.Thus,the large area above that elevation is not included in the data.(2) Direct observations on heat fluxes do not exist at most stations,and the sensible heat flux(SHF) is calculated by the bulk formula,in which the drag coefficient for heat is often treated as an empirical constant without considering atmospheric stability and thermal roughness length.(3) Radiation flux derived by satellite remote sensing shows a large discrepancy in the algorithm in data inversion and complex terrain.(4) In reanalysis data,besides the rare observational records employed for data assimilation,model bias in physical processes induces visible errors in producing the diabatic heating fields.  相似文献   

An analysis of uncertainty in non-equilibrium and equilibrium geothermobarometry     

J. R. ASHWORTH  V. S. SHEPLEV  V. V. KHLESTOV  V. A. ANANYEV 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2004,22(9):811-824

In statistically optimised P–T estimation, the contributions to overall uncertainty from different sources are represented by ellipses. One source, for a diffusion‐controlled reaction at non‐equilibrium, is diffusion modelling of the reaction texture. This modelling is used to estimate ratios, Q, between free‐energy differences, ΔG, of reactions among mineral end‐members, to replace the equilibrium condition ΔG = 0. The associated uncertainty is compared with those already inherent in the equilibrium case (from end‐member data, activity models and mineral compositions). A compact matrix formulation is introduced for activity coefficients, and their partial derivatives governing error propagation. The non‐equilibrium example studied is a corona reaction with the assemblage Grt–Opx–Cpx–Pl–Qtz. Two garnet compositions are used, from opposite sides of the corona. In one of them, affected by post‐reaction Fe, Mg exchange with pyroxene, the problem of reconstructing the original composition is overcome by direct use of ratios between chemical‐potential differences, given by the diffusion modelling. The number of geothermobarometers in the optimisation is limited by near‐degeneracies. Their weightings are affected by strong correlations among Q ratios. Uncertainty from diffusion modelling is not large in comparison with other sources. Overall precision is limited mainly by uncertainties in activity models. Hypothetical equilibrium P–T are also estimated for both garnet compositions. By this approach, departure from equilibrium can be measured, with statistical uncertainties. For the example, the result for difference from equilibrium pressure is 1.2 ± 0.7 kbar.  相似文献   

Editorial     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(1):1-2

The assessment of rock-fall hazards is subject to significant uncertainty, which is not fully considered in general practice and research. This paper reviews and classifies the various sources of the uncertainty. Taking a generic framework for risk assessment as source, a probabilistic model is presented that consistently combines the different types of uncertainties, in order to obtain a unified estimate of rock-fall risk. An important aspect of the model is that it allows for incorporating all available information, including physical and empirical models, observations and expert knowledge, by means of Bayesian updating. Detailed formulations are developed for various types of information. Finally, two examples considering rock-fall risk on roads, with and without protection structures, illustrate the application of the probabilistic modeling framework to practical problems.  相似文献   

Exploring spatial data uncertainties in land‐use change scenarios     

N. Dendoncker  C. Schmit  M. Rounsevell 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1013-1030

This paper evaluates errors and uncertainties in representing landscapes that arise from different data rasterization methods, spatial resolutions, and downscaled land‐use change (LUC) scenarios. A vector LU dataset for Luxembourg (minimum mapping unit: 0.15 ha; year 2000) was used as the baseline reference map. This map was rasterized at three spatial resolutions using three cell class assignment methods. The landscape composition and configuration of these maps were compared. Four alternative scenarios of future LUC were also generated for the three resolutions using existing LUC scenarios and a statistical downscaling method creating 37 maps of LUC for the year 2050. These maps were compared in terms of composition and spatial configuration using simple metrics of landscape fragmentation and an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Differences in landscape composition and configuration between the three cell class assignment methods and the three spatial resolutions were found to be at least as large as the differences between the LUC scenarios. This occurred in spite of the large LUC projected by the scenarios. This demonstrates the importance of the rasterization method and the level of aggregation as a contribution to uncertainty when developing future LUC scenarios and in analysing landscape structure in ecological studies.  相似文献   

Causal models as multiple working hypotheses about environmental processes   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Keith Beven 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(2):77-88

The environmental modeller faces a dilemma. Science often demands that more and more process representations are incorporated into models (particularly to avoid the possibility of making missing process errors in predicting future response). Testing the causal representations in environmental models (as multiple working hypotheses about the functioning of environmental systems) then depends on specifying boundary conditions and model parameters adequately. This will always be difficult in applications to a real system because of the heterogeneities, non-stationarities, complexities and epistemic uncertainties inherent in environmental prediction. Thus, it can be difficult to define the information content of a data set used in model evaluation and any consequent measures of belief or verisimilitude. A limit of acceptability approach to model evaluation is suggested as a way of testing models, implying that thought is required to define critical experiments that will allow models as hypotheses to be adequately differentiated.  相似文献