半微量凯氏法测定土壤全氮量的不确定度评定   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

白金峰  胡外英  张勤  周建辉 《岩矿测试》2007,26(1):40-44

以半微量凯氏法测定土壤中全氮量为例，对测定结果的不确定度来源进行了详细分析，对测定过程中的主要不确定度分量进行了合理评定，包括样品和标准物质硼砂的称量引入的不确定度，硼砂的纯度引入的不确定度，容量瓶、移液管和滴定管的体积引入的不确定度．相关元素的摩尔质量引入的不确定度以及测量的重复性引入的不确定度。最后合成标准不确定度．通过乘以95％置信概率下的扩展因子2获得测量结果的扩展不确定度。  相似文献   

石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定农业地质调查土壤样品中镉的不确定度评定   总被引：2，自引：5，他引：2  

孙爱琴  王烨  王苏明  陈爱平  陈浩凤 《岩矿测试》2007,26(1):51-54

用实例对石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定土壤样品中镉元素的不确定度进行评定,采用《测量不确定度评定与表示指南》对测量结果进行评估。分析了不确定度的主要来源,包括测量浓度的不确定度、体积的不确定度、称量不确定度及测量重复性引起的不确定度。评估了镉含量的合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度。对于镉含量为0.42×10-6的土壤样品,其扩展不确定度为0.04×10-6。  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty     

Simone Barani  Daniele Spallarossa  Paolo Bazzurro  Claudio Eva   《Tectonophysics》2007,435(1-4):13-35

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.  相似文献   

初值不确定性对暴雨数值预报影响的初步研究     

徐幼平  姜洪峰  李鲲  程锐 《湖北气象》2007,26(1):21-28

为了研究初值不确定性对我国南方暴雨数值预报的影响,依据历史降水资料的统计分型,选取华南暴雨型、江淮暴雨型和黄淮暴雨型等三类型中具有代表性的暴雨过程,采用AREM模式以不同资料分析场(常规观测资料、NCEP和ERA40同化分析资料)作为初值进行暴雨预报对比试验。试验结果表明,对于各类型暴雨,不同资料初值的差异都会引起暴雨数值预报结果的较大差异;在此基础上,采用经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法,分析了各类暴雨初值误差及其变化信息,从中提取出主要的误差分量,并对这类误差的数值预报影响进行了敏感性试验和预报验证,结果显示,寻找和消除主要的初值误差,对改进暴雨数值预报结果具有重要作用。  相似文献   

多尺度下的不确定性空间方向锥形模型研究     

蔡剑红  李德仁 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2007,32(8):735-739

利用质心作为参考点,并在空间方向锥形模型中添加了扩展不确定度的参数,用区间分析法,对多尺度下顾及不确定性的空间方向关系进行形式化描述,来适应尺度变化引起的空间关系不确定性的变化,以更好地描述空间方向关系。该模型使得方向关系的划分上有个平滑的过渡区,在方向概念的表达上更符合人的认知。  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China     

Yue‐Ping Xu  Xujie Zhang  Ye Tian 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4067-4077

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Uncertainty in modelling of faecal coliform overland transport associated with manure application in Maryland     

A. K. Guber  Y. A. Pachepsky  A. M. Yakirevich  D. R. Shelton  A. M. Sadeghi  D. C. Goodrich  C. L. Unkrich 《水文研究》2011,25(15):2393-2404

Concerns for microbial safety of surface water facilitate development of predictive models that estimate concentrations and total numbers of pathogen and indicator organisms leaving manure‐fertilized fields in overland flow during runoff events. Spatial variability of bacterial concentrations in applied manure introduces high uncertainty in the model predictions. The objective of this work was to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions of the manure‐borne bacteria overland transport caused by limited information on the spatial distribution of bacteria in surface‐applied manure. Experiments were carried out at the ARS Beltsville experimental watershed site (OPE3) in Maryland. Dairy bovine manure was applied at a 59·3 t/ha rate on the 3·55 hectare experimental field. Faecal coliform (FC) concentrations in manure measured in 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2009 varied by 4 orders of magnitude each year. Both runoff volume and FC concentrations in runoff water were monitored using a runoff flume equipped with a refrigerated pump sampler. Two runoff events occurred before the manure was incorporated into the soil. A bacteria transport add‐on module simulator of transport with infiltration and runoff (STWIR) was linked with the event‐based kinematic runoff and erosion model (KINEROS2) to simulate convective‐dispersive overland transport, bacteria release from manure, reversible attachment–detachment to soil, and surface straining of infiltrating bacteria. The model was successfully calibrated with the field experiment data. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out to account for the spatial variation in FC in applied manure and uncertainty in the FC distribution in manure caused by the small number of samples. A tenfold and twofold variation in FC concentrations in the runoff were obtained within the 90% probability interval when initial FC spatial distributions in the manure were represented by 5 and 29 samples, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Non-Darcian groundwater flow in leaky aquifers     

ZEKAI ŞEN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):595-606

Abstract

A simplified method has been developed for solving leaky aquifer non-Darcian flow hydraulics. The principle of volumetric approach is combined with the confined-aquifer, time-dependent drawdown equation in an observation well. The groundwater flow in the leaky aquifer is assumed to obey a non-Darcian flow law of exponential type. The results are obtained in the form of type-curve expressions from which the necessary bundles of curves are drawn for a set of selective non-Darcian flow aquifer parameters. Although application of the methodology appears as rather limited but it provides a scientific contribution and extension of leaky aquifer theory towards nonlinear flow conditions. The methodology developed herein is applied to some actual field data from the eastern sedimentary basin in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  相似文献   

Assessing damaged road verges as a suspended sediment source in the Hampshire Avon catchment,southern United Kingdom     

A. L. Collins  D. E. Walling  R. W. Stroud  M. Robson  L. M. Peet 《水文研究》2010,24(9):1106-1122

Diffuse sediment pollution impairs water quality, exerts a key control on the transfer and fate of nutrients and contaminants and causes deleterious impacts on freshwater ecology. A variety of catchment sediment sources can contribute to such problems. Sediment control strategies and effective targeting of mitigation options therefore require robust quantitative information on the key sources of the sediment problem at catchment scale. Recent observations by Catchment Sensitive Farming Officers (CSFO's) in England have highlighted road verges damaged and eroded by passing vehicles, particularly large farm machinery, and livestock herd movement as visually important potential sources of local sediment problems. A study was therefore undertaken to assess the relative importance of damaged road verges as a suspended sediment source in three sub‐catchments of the Hampshire Avon drainage basin, southern UK. Road verge sediment contributions were apportioned in conjunction with those from agricultural topsoils and channel banks/subsurface sources. Time‐integrating isokinetic samplers were deployed to sample suspended sediment fluxes at the outlets of two control sub‐catchments drained by the Rivers Chitterne and Till selected to characterize areas with a low road network density and limited visual evidence of verge damage, as well as the River Sem sub‐catchment used to represent areas where road verge damage is more prevalent. The findings of a sediment source fingerprinting investigation based on a combination of intermittent sampling campaigns spanning the period 22/5/02–27/4/08 suggested that the respective overall mean relative sediment contributions from damaged road verges were 5 ± 3%, 4 ± 2% and 20 ± 2%. Relative inputs from damaged road verges for any specific sampling period in the River Sem sub‐catchment were as high as 33 ± 2%. Reconstruction of historical sources in the same sub‐catchment, based on the geochemical record stored in a floodplain depth profile, suggested that the significance of damaged road verges as a sediment source has increased over the past 15–20 years. The findings provide important information on damaged road verges as a primary source of suspended sediment and imply that catchment sediment control strategies and mitigation plans should consider such verges in addition to those agricultural and channel sources traditionally taken into account when attempting to reduce sediment pressures on aquatic resources. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

土地利用规划环境影响评价中不确定性分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘晓丽 《山东国土资源》2007,23(9):28-30,33

在分析土地利用规划环境影响评价中的不确定来源、特点及其对决策的影响基础上,提出了降低环境影响评价中不确定性的方法。通过研究认为:土地利用规划环境影响评价中的不确定主要由土地利用规划方案的不确定、环境信息的不确定和环境影响程度的不确定引起的,这些不确定性具有客观性、传递性、累积性,对决策会产生较大的干扰,但是可以通过使用基于情景分析的预测方法、多方协作的方式以及广泛开展公众参与等方法来降低。  相似文献