“泛西南”地区加卸载响应比异常及大震活动预测与追踪     

尹祥础  刘月  张浪平  李文军  袁帅  张小涛 《地震》2017,37(4):37-49

21世纪初, 在中国西南及周边地区(本文称为“泛西南”)开始出现大面积的加卸载响应比(以下简称LURR)异常, 根据LURR异常演化, 我们于2008年首次提出该地区正在孕育着“超大地震”。 追踪研究结果显示, 孕震积分I_t于2012年7月达到峰值。 根据LURR与量纲分析方法结合得到的预测地震时空强的新方法, 我们预测: 2015年7月前后(±25月), 在“泛西南”地区将发生8级左右“超大地震”。 我们在2014年参加的两次会议上交流了这一预测结果, 2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1强震发生在预测范围内。 尼泊尔M_S8.1地震后, “泛西南”地区的加卸载响应比大尺度异常不仅没有消退, 反而更加增强。 I_t于2015年7月达到新峰值, 超过了尼泊尔地震前的水平, 因此, “泛西南”地区可能仍面临非常严重的地震灾害。  相似文献   

辽东南中生代构造演化及其与金矿形成的关系     

张宏  王小凤 《地质与资源》1995,4(1):41-49

辽东南地区中生代受到三期构造运动的影响且各具特色:①三叠纪的印支运动以形成东西向构造线及较多的"S"型花岗岩为特征;②侏罗纪的早燕山运动以近东西向挤压为主,在辽南地区以形成线理走向为北西西向的推覆构造为特征;③晚侏罗世晚期到早白垩世的晚燕山运动产生大量北东、北北东向断裂,同时发生了强烈的左行走滑。上述三期构造运动对金矿的形成均有一定的影响,三个时期均有一定规模的金矿化作用,金矿化的主要时期是在晚侏罗世晚期到早白垩世。  相似文献   

祁连山老虎沟12号冰川消融区不同天气条件下的能量收支特征     

张佳佳  孙维君  杜文涛  陈记祖  秦翔 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):332-343

冰川表面能量平衡模型建立了冰川与大气之间的联系。为探讨不同天气条件对冰川能量收支的影响, 利用祁连山老虎沟12号冰川海拔4 550 m处的气象资料（2011年8月24日 - 9月6日）, 结合能量平衡模型, 分析了不同天气条件下的能量收支变化特征。结果表明： 受云量影响, 晴天条件下向下短波辐射（318.3 W·m^-2）是多云条件下的1.5倍, 是阴天条件下的3倍。三种天气条件下的向下长波辐射, 晴天（215.4 W·m^-2）<多云（267.4 W·m^-2）<阴天（291.6 W·m^-2）。受固态降水的影响, 阴天条件下冰川反照率（0.50）是晴天时的2倍多。而三种天气下的最大消融耗热, 晴天（739.6 W·m^-2）>多云（582.8 W·m^-2）>阴天（324.5 W·m^-2）。在能量收入项中, 净短波辐射是主要来源（98%）, 但是受天气条件影响, 能量支出各项所占比例有明显差异; 在三种天气条件下, 净长波辐射所占比例分别为35%、 31%和23%, 消融耗热所占比例分别为62%、 64%和75%, 潜热通量所占比例相差不大。  相似文献   

Geological characteristics and co-exploration and co-production methods of Upper Permian Longtan coal measure gas in Yangmeishu Syncline,Western Guizhou Province,China     

《China Geology》2020,3(1):38-51

Coal measure gas (also known as coal-bearing unconventional gas) is the key field and development direction of unconventional natural gas in recent years. The exploration and evaluation of coal measure gas (coalbed methane, coal shale gas and coal measure tight sandstone gas) from single coalbed methane has greatly expanded the field and space of resource evaluation, which is of positive significance for realizing the comprehensive utilization of coal resources, maximizing the benefits and promoting the innovation of oil and gas geological theory and technological advances in exploration and development. For the first time, in Yangmeishu Syncline of Western Guizhou Province, the public welfare coalbed methane geological survey project of China Geological Survey has been carried out a systematic geological survey of coal measure gas for the Upper Permian Longtan Formation, identified the geological conditions of coal measure gas and found high quality resources. The total geological resource quantity of coalbed methane and coal shale gas is 51.423×10⁹ m³ and the geological resource abundance is up to 566×10⁹ m³/km². In this area, the coal measures are characterized by many layers of minable coal seams, large total thickness, thin to the medium thickness of the single layer, good gas-bearing property of coal seams and coal measure mudstone and sandstone, good reservoir physical property and high-pressure coefficient. According to the principle of combination of high quality and similarity of key parameters of the coal reservoir, the most favorable intervals are No.5⁻², No.7 and No.13⁻² coal seam in Well YMC1. And the pilot tests are carried out on coal seams and roof silty mudstone, such as staged perforation, increasing hydraulic fracturing scale and “three gas” production. The high and stable industrial gas flow with a daily gas output of more than 4000 m³ has been obtained, which has realized the breakthrough in the geological survey of coal measure gas in Southwest China. Based on the above investigation results, the geological characteristics of coal measure gas in the multi-thin-coal-seam-developed area and the co-exploration and co-production methods, such as the optimization method of favorable intervals, the high-efficiency fracturing and reservoir reconstruction method of coal measures, and the “three gas” drainage and production system, are systematically summarized in this paper. It will provide a reference for efficient exploration and development of coal measure gas in similar geological conditions in China.  相似文献   

Research and exploration progress on lithium deposits in China     

《China Geology》2020,3(1):137-152

Since 2012, some advances have been made through the resource investigation, metallogenesis research, and comprehensive utilizing of lithium deposits in China. Firstly, the progress of lithium exploration has been made in Sichuan, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Jiangxi provinces (autonomous region). Li deposits are not only found within the pegmatite rocks but also within the granitic rocks and sedimentary rocks. Secondly, the methods of geological survey, geochemical and geophysical exploration, remote sensing technology and even drilling technology have been improved, which can be delineating orebodies quickly. Thirdly, the mechanisms of Li mineralization were summarized by analyzing the relationship between the Li contents and kinds of geological phenomena. Based on practice, a new understanding of “multi-cycle, deep circulation, integration of internal and external” metallogenic mechanism or “MDIE” metallogenic mechanism for short has been put forwarded further in this paper, and the “five levels + basement” exploration model has been successfully expanded to guide the prospecting work both in the Jiajika and Keeryin pegmatite ore fields in western Sichuan Province. Besides, new progress has been made in the aspect of amblygonite deposits of granite-type and hydrothermal type in the Mufushan-Jiuling ore district, which points out a new direction for prospecting new types of lithium deposits in China.  相似文献   

IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.  相似文献