浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法     

周洪祥  方同德 《海洋学研究》1993,11(2):1-8

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。  相似文献   

海藻硫酸多糖911对小鼠脾淋巴细胞增殖反应及对细胞产生IL—2作用的影响     

王文涛  张永祥  周金黄  管华诗 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1992,(Z1)

本文以~3H—TdR掺入法观察911对小鼠脾淋巴细胞增殖反应的影响并用CTLL细胞检测了其对IL—2的作用。体外实验结果表明,911对小鼠脾淋巴细胞增殖反应有明显的增强作用,以0.5μg/ml的浓度效果最为明显,相对增殖指数RPI可达200％;体内实验则以5mg/kg体重ip,连续7d效果最好,相对增殖指数RPI可达176％;911用药组小鼠IL—2的产生量均高于对照组,以5mg/kg和10mg/kg效果最好。以上实验证明,这一多糖是一种有希望的新免疫调节药物。  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Multi-Directional Random Seas     

Yu Yuxiu  Liu Shuxue  Li Li Professor  Dept. of Civil Engineering  Dalian University of Technology  Dalian Research Assistant  Dept. of Civil Engineering  Dalian University of Technology  Dalian 《中国海洋工程》1991,(3)

Multi-directional irregular waves are simulated on the basis of the given directional spectrum using a double summation model, a single direction per frequency model and a single summation model. Their results are compared. It is shown that the single direction per frequency model proposed in this paper can generate a realistic wave field. The effects of the model parameters on the simulated results are also studied in this paper and corresponding suggestions are given.  相似文献   

东中国海环流及其季节变化的数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

白学志  王凡  胡敦欣 《海洋科学集刊》2003,(45):77-85

关于东中国海环流的研究，国内外学者已做了大量的工作。早期科学家们主要依赖于对温盐资料和少数测流资料的分析研究对渤、黄、东海的环流结构有了较系统和深入的认识。东中国海环流是由一个气旋式的“流涡”组成，东侧主要是北上的黑潮-对马暖流-黄海暖流及其延伸部分；西侧为南下的沿岸流系。黑潮对东中国海环流的影响是如此之大，以致于除了某些局部区域外，上述海域主要流系的冬、夏季分布形式比较相似而无本质上的差异(胡敦欣等，1993)。但本文所研究海域正处于世界上最显著的季风区，冬、夏季盛行风向基本相反，过渡季节(春、秋季)风向多变，风力减弱；海洋热盐结构季节变化明显(如冬季混合强，而夏季层化明显等)，这些因素都使得东中国海环流存在着较明显的季节变化。 自20世纪80年代以来，东中国海环流的数值模拟工作逐步展开，并已成为研究环流结构及其形成机制的强有力工具。但由于数值模式本身以及计算方案的缺陷(如有些学者用固定的风场、温盐场对东中国海环流进行诊断模拟等)和观测资料的不足，数值模拟的结果难以得到验证，渤、黄、东海的环流研究中仍有大量的问题存在争议，以待澄清。例如，台湾暖流的来源、流径;对马暖流的来源;夏季黄海暖流的流径以及黄海冷水团环流等均有不同的论述。对黄、东海环流季节变化的数值模拟工作也较少，多用冬、夏典型月份的风场强迫积分至稳定态，给出冬、夏季环流，这种做法值得商榷。三维环流模式很难在1个月内达到稳定态，尤其是夏季层化明显、风力减弱的情况下，非常定风场的影响更应引起人们的重视。 本文采用比较符合实际的计算方案，用年循环风场和海面热通量场为外强迫，对渤、黄、东海的环流及其季节变化进行了模拟，并对一些争议问题进行了探讨。  相似文献   

Validating management simulation models and implications for communicating results to stakeholders     

Pastoors  Martin A.; Poos  Jan Jaap; Kraak  Sarah B. M.; Machiels  Marcel A. M. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):818-824

  相似文献   

北极海冰减少的气候效应研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

魏立新  张海影 《海洋预报》2005,22(Z1):56-61

本文采用了OSU两层大气环流模式对特定的北极海冰进行数值模拟,研究北极海冰减少的气候效应.试验中海温一律取为气候平均值,北极海冰作为外强迫源影响大气,大气响应完全是环流内部调整的结果.本文对北极海冰减少后的大气环流特征进行了分析,特别是与中国的气温和降水之间的关系.  相似文献   

渤、黄、东海底摩擦系数的研究     

孙丽艳  吕咸青 《海洋湖沼通报》2007,(2):7-12

本文将伴随法用于渤、黄、东海M2分潮的数值模拟,利用Topex／Poseidon高度计资料进行同化,优化海底摩擦系数。文中对底摩擦系数取常数时进行了优化,同时还对底摩擦系数的一种新的处理方法进行了研究,即在计算海区选取一些点给定底摩擦系数,海区中任意一点的底摩擦系数由这些点的底摩擦系数线性播值得到,优化后得到空间分布的底摩擦系数。针对两种不同的线性底摩擦假设分别进行了一系列的实际实验,结果表明由空间分布的底摩擦系数得到的模拟值比底摩擦系数取常数得到的模拟值更接近观测值,能有效地提高数值模拟的精度。  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of submerged plane nets in current     

Yu-Cheng Li  Yun-Peng Zhao  Fu-Kun Gui  Bin Teng 《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(17-18):2352-2368

The aim of this paper is to investigate the shape and tension distribution of fishing nets in current. A numerical model is developed, based on lumped mass method to simplify the net. The motion equation is set up for each lumped mass. The Runge–Kutta–Verner fifth-order and sixth-order method is used to solve these simultaneous equations, and then the displacement and tension of each lumped mass are obtained. In order to verify the validity of the numerical method, model tests have been carried out. The results by the numerical simulation agree well with the experimental data.  相似文献   

Roles of Continental Shelves and Marginal Seas in the Biogeochemical Cycles of the North Pacific Ocean   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Chen-Tung Arthur Chen  Andrey Andreev  Kyung-Ryul Kim  Michiyo Yamamoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2004,60(1):17-44

Most marginal seas in the North Pacific are fed by nutrients supported mainly by upwelling and many are undersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO₂ in the surface water mainly as a result of the biological pump and winter cooling. These seas absorb CO₂ at an average rate of 1.1 ± 0.3 mol C m⁻²yr⁻¹ but release N₂/N₂O at an average rate of 0.07 ± 0.03 mol N m⁻²yr⁻¹. Most of primary production, however, is regenerated on the shelves, and only less than 15% is transported to the open oceans as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (POC) with a small amount of POC deposited in the sediments. It is estimated that seawater in the marginal seas in the North Pacific alone may have taken up 1.6 ± 0.3 Gt (10¹⁵ g) of excess carbon, including 0.21 ± 0.05 Gt for the Bering Sea, 0.18 ± 0.08 Gt for the Okhotsk Sea; 0.31 ± 0.05 Gt for the Japan/East Sea; 0.07 ± 0.02 Gt for the East China and Yellow Seas; 0.80 ± 0.15 Gt for the South China Sea; and 0.015 ± 0.005 Gt for the Gulf of California. More importantly, high latitude marginal seas such as the Bering and Okhotsk Seas may act as conveyer belts in exporting 0.1 ± 0.08 Gt C anthropogenic, excess CO₂ into the North Pacific Intermediate Water per year. The upward migration of calcite and aragonite saturation horizons due to the penetration of excess CO₂ may also make the shelf deposits on the Bering and Okhotsk Seas more susceptible to dissolution, which would then neutralize excess CO₂ in the near future. Further, because most nutrients come from upwelling, increased water consumption on land and damming of major rivers may reduce freshwater output and the buoyancy effect on the shelves. As a result, upwelling, nutrient input and biological productivity may all be reduced in the future. As a final note, the Japan/East Sea has started to show responses to global warming. Warmer surface layer has reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface water, resulting in a decline of spring phytoplankton biomass. Less bottom water formation because of less winter cooling may lead to the disappearance of the bottom water as early as 2040. Or else, an anoxic condition may form as early as 2200 AD. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Sediment–water interactions of natural oestrogens under estuarine conditions     

J. C. Bowman  J. L. Zhou  J. W. Readman 《Marine Chemistry》2002,77(4)

The natural human female hormones oestrone and 17β-oestradiol have been implicated in the disruption of endocrine systems in some wildlife adjacent to sewage effluents. The sorption behaviour of these two compounds under estuarine conditions was studied by spiking either 2.55 μg of oestrone or 2.65 μg of 17β-oestradiol in kinetic experiments. In equilibrium experiments, 3 ng of oestrone or 3.2 ng of 17β-oestradiol was added in each of the centrifuge tubes. Sorption onto sediment particles was relatively slow, with sorption equilibrium being reached in about 70 and 170 h for oestrone and 17β-oestradiol, respectively. The effects of a variety of environmental parameters on sorption were studied including salinity, sediment concentration (SC), the presence of a third phase, particle size and, also, surfactant concentrations. Results show that although salinity did not induce any statistically significant effect on the sorption of 17β-oestradiol, it did statistically enhance the sorption of oestrone, and a salting constant of 0.3 l mol⁻¹ was derived. The partition coefficient for both compounds decreased with increasing sediment concentration, a phenomenon that has been widely reported and attributed to the presence of colloids (which could enhance dissolved concentrations). In this paper, the true partition coefficients for sediment particles (K_p^true) and colloidal particles (K_c^true) have been calculated, and a K_p^true value of 141 and 102 ml g⁻¹ was obtained for oestrone and 17β-oestradiol, respectively. In addition, K_c^true values for oestrone (222×10² ml g⁻¹) and 17β-oestradiol (135×10² ml g⁻¹) were two orders of magnitude higher than their respective K_p^true values, suggesting that the colloidal particles are significantly stronger sorbents for natural oestrogens than sediment particles. Particles of different sizes were found to have different partition coefficients due to the strong relationships between partition coefficients for the two compounds and particulate organic carbon (POC) contents and specific surface areas (SSAs). The presence of a surfactant was shown to reduce the partition coefficients for the two compounds, although its concentrations being used were higher than those normally found in the natural environment.  相似文献