Global methane emission through mud volcanoes and its past and present impact on the Earth’s climate—a comment     

Alexei V. Milkov  Giuseppe Etiope 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2005,94(3):490-492

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Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Milind Kandlikar  James Risbey  Suraje Dessai 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):443-455

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

Uncertainty in adaptive capacity     

W. Neil Adger  Katharine Vincent 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):399-410

The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

Ice-core pollen record of climatic changes in the central Andes during the last 400 yr     

Kam-biu Liu  Carl A. Reese 《Quaternary Research》2005,64(2):272-278

This paper presents a high-resolution ice-core pollen record from the Sajama Ice Cap, Bolivia, that spans the last 400 yr. The pollen record corroborates the oxygen isotopic and ice accumulation records from the Quelccaya Ice Cap and supports the scenario that the Little Ice Age (LIA) consisted of two distinct phases—a wet period from AD 1500 to 1700, and a dry period from AD 1700 to 1880. During the dry period xerophytic shrubs expanded to replace puna grasses on the Altiplano, as suggested by a dramatic drop in the Poaceae/Asteraceae (P/A) pollen ratio. The environment around Sajama was probably similar to the desert-like shrublands of the Southern Bolivian Highlands and western Andean slopes today. The striking similarity between the Sajama and Quelccaya proxy records suggests that climatic changes during the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the Altiplano.  相似文献   

Building deliberative public-private partnerships for waste management in Asia     

Tim Forsyth 《Geoforum》2005,36(4):429-439

Public-private partnerships in environmental policy should not simply be viewed in instrumental terms as means of providing environmental infrastructure and services, but also as sites where norms of environmental concern and political accountability are formulated and replicated. Deliberative public-private partnerships--or partnerships that allow greater public participation in the formulation of these norms--may therefore become an important new form of local environmental governance and help make partnerships more relevant to local environmental needs. This paper examines case studies of public-private partnerships in waste-to-energy projects in the Philippines and India to identify how principles of institutional design may enhance the deliberative nature of public-private partnerships in environmental policy. The paper argues that current approaches to deliberative, or cooperative environmental governance concerning public-private partnerships need to acknowledge insights from network theory concerning the communication of environmental and political norms before they can be successfully transferred to developing countries.  相似文献   

Environmental significance of C/C and O/O ratios of modern land-snail shells from the southern great plains of North America     

Meena Balakrishnan  James L. Theler  Don G. Wyckoff 《Quaternary Research》2005,63(1):15-30

¹³C/¹²C and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios of aragonite shells of modern land snails from the southern Great Plains of North America were measured for samples from twelve localities in a narrow east-west corridor that extended from the Flint Hills in North Central Oklahoma to the foothills of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in Northern New Mexico, USA. Across the study area, shell δ¹⁸O values (PDB scale) ranged from −4.1‰ to 1.2‰, while δ¹³C values ranged from −13.2‰ to 0.0‰. δ¹⁸O values of the shell aragonite were predicted with a published, steady state, evaporative flux balance model. The predicted values differed (with one exception) by less than 1‰ from locality averages of measured δ¹⁸O values. This similarity suggests that relative humidity at the time of snail activity is an important control on the δ¹⁸O values of the aragonite and emphasizes the seasonal nature of the climatic information preserved in the shells. Correlated δ¹³C values of coexisting Vallonia and Gastrocopta suggest similar feeding habits and imply that these genera can provide information on variations in southern Great Plains plant ecology. Although there is considerable scatter, multispecies, transect average δ¹³C values of the modern aragonite shells are related to variations in the type of photosynthesis (i.e., C₃, C₄) in the local plant communities. The results of this study emphasize the desirability of obtaining isotope ratios representing averages of many shells in a locale to reduce possible biases associated with local variations among individuals, species, etc., and thus better represent the “neighborhood” scale temporal and/or spatial environmental variations of interest in studies of modern and ancient systems.  相似文献   

New evidence for an extended occupation of the Provo shoreline and implications for regional climate change, Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, Utah, USA     

Holly S. Godsey  Donald R. Currey  Marjorie A. Chan 《Quaternary Research》2005,63(2):212-223

Lake Bonneville was a climatically sensitive, closed-basin lake that occupied the eastern Great Basin during the late Pleistocene. Ongoing efforts to refine the record of lake level history are important for deciphering climate conditions in the Bonneville basin and for facilitating correlations with regional and global records of climate change. Radiocarbon data from this and other studies suggest that the lake oscillated at or near the Provo level much longer than depicted by current models of lake level change. Radiocarbon data also suggest that the lake dropped from threshold control much more rapidly than previously supposed. These revisions to the Lake Bonneville hydrograph, coupled with independent evidence of climate change from vegetation and glacial records, have important implications for conditions in the Bonneville basin and during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.  相似文献   

Towards a moral socio-environmental economy: A reconsideration of values     

《Geoforum》2015

In this intervention article I contribute to discussions of moral economy by arguing that scholars should reconsider the nature of value. Neoliberalism considers only exchange value. As a consequence neoliberal policies try to manage problems such as climate change with economic systems and instruments that are mis-calibrated to the material realities they are meant to represent. Value has spatial and temporal characteristics. Recognizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of value leads to new means of resource valuation, such as extending the time-frame of instruments and changing the nature of privatization. In conclusion, I argue for the need for new theories of use value.  相似文献   

Last interglacial vegetation and climate history from the Portuguese coast          下载免费PDF全文

T. A. MINCKLEY  J. A. HAWS  M. M. BENEDETTI  S. C. BREWER  S. L. FORMAN 《第四纪科学杂志》2015,30(1):59-69

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A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels     

Ivan D. Haigh  Robert Nicholls  Neil Wells 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.  相似文献